AAII is sending out a Contrarian Buy Signal

[william the wie]

bearish sentiment 5% above average, bullish sentiment is 9% below average. that means buy.

 

[DOTR]

bearish sentiment 5% above average, bullish sentiment is 9% below average. that means buy.

I wonder. The tax cuts I think were already baked in to some extent. The market knew Trump would win again. But we know we have interest rate hikes coming so that balances it some. I do think the boom from the new tax reductions will be more than expected. I have done well lately. 26.6% since Mr Trump came into office. I think a long in the tooth bull market will continue through next year and even better returns once the 1st and 2nd quarter results come in 2018. But by then I will have had enough. I am always 100% equities but right now, with my present assumptions, I am thinking I will start backing down next October or so. By then I think I will be looking at 50% since President Trump took office.
Enough is enough. Combine that with rising interest rates and I think I will finally be comfortable with 30-50% short and Interm bonds while I wait on one more correction in my investing life.
Then again everything is subject to change as conditions change. Black swans kill more portfolios than anything else.
But those are my plans for now.

 

[william the wie]

Well reasoned response that I mostly agree with. but the expected March/June rate hike will most likely force bankruptcy on IL. That will lead to a relocation of the commodities markets. Since programmed trading requires the stock market to communicate with the commodities market that will likely lead to other relocations and debt service problems in NY, NJ, CT &CA. that would be a great buying opportunity but the Jewish high holy days, Trumpets to Yom Kippur, have not been as nasty recently so do be prepared for a terrifying dip.