CDZ A World Without Jobs: Utopia or Hell?

[JimBowie1958]

I'm surprised you haven't latched onto this thread. I would have shared the info here, but the temporal theme and context of your title and OP led me to post the content in a fresh thread.

I want to give it some more thought before I respond, if that is not laziness on my part.

You put out some good posts from time to time that deserve a slow chewing.

 

[Flopper]

It seems to me that the availability of 3D printing and nanomanufacturing will greatly alleviate the "Hellishness" of a jobless economy, as will job mongering laws and regs to minimize the impacts of said jobless economy.

We will have to have a Robotics tax that takes the place of an income tax per Robot/human job loss, or else the government gets defunded over time.

We will have to focus on keeping every job we can reasonably justify as we enable people to make their own necessities in life.

We will have to provide a Universal Bsic Income as a replacement for all Welfare (not Social Security as that is not welfare).

We will need to provide counseling to the public so they can transition to this jobless economy successfully.

A world without work is coming – it could be utopia or it could be hell | Ryan Avent

Most of us have wondered what we might do if we didn’t need to work – if we woke up one morning to discover we had won the lottery, say. We entertain ourselves with visions of multiple homes, trips around the world or the players we would sign after buying Arsenal. For many of us, the most tantalising aspect of such visions is the freedom it would bring: to do what one wants, when one wants and how one wants.

But imagine how that vision might change if such freedom were extended to everyone. Some day, probably not in our lifetimes but perhaps not long after, machines will be able to do most of the tasks that people can. At that point, a truly workless world should be possible. If everyone, not just the rich, had robots at their beck and call, then such powerful technology would free them from the need to submit to the realities of the market to put food on the table.

Of course, we then have to figure out what to do not only with ourselves but with one another. Just as a lottery cheque does not free the winner from the shackles of the human condition, all-purpose machine intelligence will not magically allow us all to get along. And what is especially tricky about a world without work is that we must begin building the social institutions to survive it long before the technological obsolescence of human workers actually arrives.

Despite impressive progress in robotics and machine intelligence, those of us alive today can expect to keep on labouring until retirement. But while Star Trek-style replicators and robot nannies remain generations away, the digital revolution is nonetheless beginning to wreak havoc. Economists and politicians have puzzled over the struggles workers have experienced in recent decades: the pitiful rate of growth in wages, rising inequality, and the growing flow of national income to profits and rents rather than pay cheques. The primary culprit is technology. The digital revolution has helped supercharge globalisation, automated routine jobs, and allowed small teams of highly skilled workers to manage tasks that once required scores of people. The result has been a glut of labour that economies have struggled to digest.

Labour markets have coped the only way they are able: workers needing jobs have little option but to accept dismally low wages. Bosses shrug and use people to do jobs that could, if necessary, be done by machines. Big retailers and delivery firms feel less pressure to turn their warehouses over to robots when there are long queues of people willing to move boxes around for low pay. Law offices put off plans to invest in sophisticated document scanning and analysis technology because legal assistants are a dime a dozen. People continue to staff checkout counters when machines would often, if not always, be just as good. Ironically, the first symptoms of a dawning era of technological abundance are to be found in the growth of low-wage, low-productivity employment. And this mess starts to reveal just how tricky the construction of a workless world will be. The most difficult challenge posed by an economic revolution is not how to come up with the magical new technologies in the first place; it is how to reshape society so that the technologies can be put to good use while also keeping the great mass of workers satisfied with their lot in life. So far, we are failing.

Preparing for a world without work means grappling with the roles work plays in society, and finding potential substitutes. First and foremost, we rely on work to distribute purchasing power: to give us the dough to buy our bread. Eventually, in our distant Star Trek future, we might get rid of money and prices altogether, as soaring productivity allows society to provide people with all they need at near-zero cost.

There is certainly some truth in what you're saying. The most likely course will be job sharing, incentives for employers to provide more employment with less hours. Employment as we know it today will be reserved for only the most highly skilled workers. However, there will always be a need for improvement in our society from picking up trash on roads and byways, assisting those delivering essential service to helping those that can't help themselves. There will always be work to be done. The problem will be how to provide financial remuneration for the work.

 

[JimBowie1958]

There is certainly some truth in what you're saying. The most likely course will be job sharing, incentives for employers to provide more employment with less hours. Employment as we know it today will be reserved for only the most highly skilled workers. However, there will always be a need for improvement in our society from picking up trash on roads and byways, assisting those delivering essential service to helping those that can't help themselves. There will always be work to done. The problem will be how to provide financial remuneration for the work.

I agree. It would appear that there will be a gradual slide from most people having full time jobs, toward part time work with gradually decreasing hours (and no health insurance) toward a HUGE pool of unemployable Americans which will necessitate something like a Universal Basic Income.

The mental changes will be difficult and the leaders of our society will need to adopt some tools to help the public find a comfortable transition to the jobless economy of tomorrow.

Moving toward "job mongering" policies to help the public transition through this time of panic until we can achieve autonomous subsistence living will be part of the agile response to this trend toward a relatively jobless economy and will cause a political as well as an economic revolution. The Democratic Party is either going to take the lead in this transitional leadership or be left behind.

 

[320 Years of History]

I'm surprised you haven't latched onto this thread. I would have shared the info here, but the temporal theme and context of your title and OP led me to post the content in a fresh thread.

I want to give it some more thought before I respond, if that is not laziness on my part.

You put out some good posts from time to time that deserve a slow chewing.

Thank you....

 

[Flopper]

There is certainly some truth in what you're saying. The most likely course will be job sharing, incentives for employers to provide more employment with less hours. Employment as we know it today will be reserved for only the most highly skilled workers. However, there will always be a need for improvement in our society from picking up trash on roads and byways, assisting those delivering essential service to helping those that can't help themselves. There will always be work to done. The problem will be how to provide financial remuneration for the work.

I agree. It would appear that there will be a gradual slide from most people having full time jobs, toward part time work with gradually decreasing hours (and no health insurance) toward a HUGE pool of unemployable Americans which will necessitate something like a Universal Basic Income.

The mental changes will be difficult and the leaders of our society will need to adopt some tools to help the public find a comfortable transition to the jobless economy of tomorrow.

Moving toward "job mongering" policies to help the public transition through this time of panic until we can achieve autonomous subsistence living will be part of the agile response to this trend toward a relatively jobless economy and will cause a political as well as an economic revolution. The Democratic Party is either going to take the lead in this transitional leadership or be left behind.

The likely changes in employment in the future is one of the major reason that I believe government will continue to grow. I think it is inevitable. People are going to demand income, work, and basic necessities such food, healthcare, adequate housing, education, etc even though there is no job. I believe government spending in most all developed countries will grow to 50% of GDP in this century. In short, conservative efforts to cut government spending may be admirable but is doomed to failure in the long run.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

What would really happen is a plague that removes all but the few elite. They will live in a world that is largely a park for their pleasure. The good part is, all the endangered species will come back, and be hunted for sport. But there will be plenty of them.

To imagine that the overseers of a mechanical utopia would actually provide for the village people of the third world and most of the flotsam and jetsam of the industrialized world is so laughable it's ridiculous to even contemplate.

There might be some semi animal humans allowed to propagate. They will be hunted for sport just like elephants or rhinos. The artisans will be allowed to survive. They always are. The artists, writers, even skilled craftsmen. They will enjoy nice comfortable lives seen to by a little army of androids and robots.

But, face it, 95% of humanity will be useless and disposed of.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The likely changes in employment in the future is one of the major reason that I believe government will continue to grow. I think it is inevitable. People are going to demand income, work, and basic necessities such food, healthcare, adequate housing, education, etc even though there is no job. I believe government spending in most all developed countries will grow to 50% of GDP in this century. In short, conservative efforts to cut government spending may be admirable but is doomed to failure in the long run.

How does the government still grow when most tax revenues are dependent on having lots of workers making a middle class income or better?

We have to have a special robotics tax on each robot/human full time job that would pay the taxes that the human would have paid, or else the government shrinks due to lack of funding, not to mention the debt payments and local/state government losing traffic revenue with computer driven cars taking over the road.

 

[JimBowie1958]

What would really happen is a plague that removes all but the few elite. They will live in a world that is largely a park for their pleasure. The good part is, all the endangered species will come back, and be hunted for sport. But there will be plenty of them.

To imagine that the overseers of a mechanical utopia would actually provide for the village people of the third world and most of the flotsam and jetsam of the industrialized world is so laughable it's ridiculous to even contemplate.

There might be some semi animal humans allowed to propagate. They will be hunted for sport just like elephants or rhinos. The artisans will be allowed to survive. They always are. The artists, writers, even skilled craftsmen. They will enjoy nice comfortable lives seen to by a little army of androids and robots.

But, face it, 95% of humanity will be useless and disposed of.

That is one "Culling" theory, but I dont think that the elites genuinely want to risk seeing loved ones die due to mutations in genetically designed diseases rendering their antidotes obsolete till new ones can be developed.

Whatever kind of culling is unleashed it wont affect ONLY the lower classes.

 

[Mac1958]

A world without work is coming – it could be utopia or it could be hell | Ryan Avent

It would be a utopia, if we can get there.

It's the getting there that will be hellish, because we don't have a plan for doing so, and no one in power appears to be thinking about it.
.

 

[JimBowie1958]

It would be a utopia, if we can get there.
It's the getting there that will be hellish, because we don't have a plan for doing so, and no one in power appears to be thinking about it.
.

So doesnt it kind of defy faith in our elected leaders that they are not addressing this topic now?

 

[Mac1958]

It would be a utopia, if we can get there.
It's the getting there that will be hellish, because we don't have a plan for doing so, and no one in power appears to be thinking about it.
.

So doesnt it kind of defy faith in our elected leaders that they are not addressing this topic now?

Sure. But our "leaders" can only think short term, getting that next donation, winning that next election.

Something like this is too complicated and would require careful planning and cooperation.

Yucky!
.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Sure. But our "leaders" can only think short term, getting that next donation, winning that next election.

Something like this is too complicated and would require careful planning and cooperation.

Yucky!
.

Yep, to handle this we have to restore the middle in our political framework, and to do that I think we need to restore the guidelines of "Sacred Ground".

People used to meet in churches to have a safe place where there would be no violence and no affront to God by lying and people could honestly settle things and speak freely. They could only do that by ostracizing those who broke the rules, unless they were monarchs, to some degree, but even Henry VIII and Henry II got a lot of blowback for it.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

What would really happen is a plague that removes all but the few elite. They will live in a world that is largely a park for their pleasure. The good part is, all the endangered species will come back, and be hunted for sport. But there will be plenty of them.

To imagine that the overseers of a mechanical utopia would actually provide for the village people of the third world and most of the flotsam and jetsam of the industrialized world is so laughable it's ridiculous to even contemplate.

There might be some semi animal humans allowed to propagate. They will be hunted for sport just like elephants or rhinos. The artisans will be allowed to survive. They always are. The artists, writers, even skilled craftsmen. They will enjoy nice comfortable lives seen to by a little army of androids and robots.

But, face it, 95% of humanity will be useless and disposed of.

That is one "Culling" theory, but I dont think that the elites genuinely want to risk seeing loved ones die due to mutations in genetically designed diseases rendering their antidotes obsolete till new ones can be developed.

Whatever kind of culling is unleashed it wont affect ONLY the lower classes.

If you look at what's happening with the very ultra rich preparing for some sort of upheaval, bunkers, mega fortified homes, islands, they expect something.

No one will have the slightest desire to make the world comfortable for the third world baby mamas to have a dozen children because they are bored. Some might be allowed to live in controlled environments like zoos.

 

[Flopper]

The likely changes in employment in the future is one of the major reason that I believe government will continue to grow. I think it is inevitable. People are going to demand income, work, and basic necessities such food, healthcare, adequate housing, education, etc even though there is no job. I believe government spending in most all developed countries will grow to 50% of GDP in this century. In short, conservative efforts to cut government spending may be admirable but is doomed to failure in the long run.

How does the government still grow when most tax revenues are dependent on having lots of workers making a middle class income or better?

We have to have a special robotics tax on each robot/human full time job that would pay the taxes that the human would have paid, or else the government shrinks due to lack of funding, not to mention the debt payments and local/state government losing traffic revenue with computer driven cars taking over the road.

Government will grow because people will continue to create demand for essential goods and services as employment opportunities for the masses falls. Yes, a robot tax would have to be put on employers which would be offset by wage cost savings.

One of the biggest challenges would be the creation of jobs that would fulfill the need people have to work. Without work, society would deteriorate because so many people would feel their lives have no meaning, purpose, or structure. Hundreds of millions of people watching robots do their work while they fill their days with meaningless pastimes would not be healthy.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Government will grow because people will continue to create demand for essential goods and services as employment opportunities for the masses falls. Yes, a robot tax would have to be put on employers which would be offset by wage cost savings.

One of the biggest challenges would be the creation of jobs that would fulfill the need people have to work. Without work, society would deteriorate because so many people would feel their lives have no meaning, purpose, or structure. Hundreds of millions of people watching robots do their work while they fill their days with meaningless pastimes would not be healthy.

That is similar to laws in some countries that require a certain percentage of employees within their country to be natives. That might help, but in the long run Mus is right and we will have a UBI probably by the time I die.


Elon Musk: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage

 

[Flopper]

Government will grow because people will continue to create demand for essential goods and services as employment opportunities for the masses falls. Yes, a robot tax would have to be put on employers which would be offset by wage cost savings.

One of the biggest challenges would be the creation of jobs that would fulfill the need people have to work. Without work, society would deteriorate because so many people would feel their lives have no meaning, purpose, or structure. Hundreds of millions of people watching robots do their work while they fill their days with meaningless pastimes would not be healthy.

That is similar to laws in some countries that require a certain percentage of employees within their country to be natives. That might help, but in the long run Mus is right and we will have a UBI probably by the time I die.


Elon Musk: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage

UBI?

 

[MarathonMike]

A social revolution must happen on order for humans to exist in the current numbers if machines do all the work and humans are merely a stand alone operative to exist..yet no matter the amount of technology , you still will have to wipe your own ass..

Well.....that too could be automated. Imagine a medium pressure bidet system with a pulsed stream. Then a robotic arm with a spinning buffer wheel extends into the bowl. When your buffed to a shine, you close the bidet lid and everything is sterilized.

 

[Mac1958]

It seems to me that the availability of 3D printing and nanomanufacturing will greatly alleviate the "Hellishness" of a jobless economy, as will job mongering laws and regs to minimize the impacts of said jobless economy.

We will have to have a Robotics tax that takes the place of an income tax per Robot/human job loss, or else the government gets defunded over time.

We will have to focus on keeping every job we can reasonably justify as we enable people to make their own necessities in life.

We will have to provide a Universal Bsic Income as a replacement for all Welfare (not Social Security as that is not welfare).

We will need to provide counseling to the public so they can transition to this jobless economy successfully.

A world without work is coming – it could be utopia or it could be hell | Ryan Avent

Most of us have wondered what we might do if we didn’t need to work – if we woke up one morning to discover we had won the lottery, say. We entertain ourselves with visions of multiple homes, trips around the world or the players we would sign after buying Arsenal. For many of us, the most tantalising aspect of such visions is the freedom it would bring: to do what one wants, when one wants and how one wants.

But imagine how that vision might change if such freedom were extended to everyone. Some day, probably not in our lifetimes but perhaps not long after, machines will be able to do most of the tasks that people can. At that point, a truly workless world should be possible. If everyone, not just the rich, had robots at their beck and call, then such powerful technology would free them from the need to submit to the realities of the market to put food on the table.

Of course, we then have to figure out what to do not only with ourselves but with one another. Just as a lottery cheque does not free the winner from the shackles of the human condition, all-purpose machine intelligence will not magically allow us all to get along. And what is especially tricky about a world without work is that we must begin building the social institutions to survive it long before the technological obsolescence of human workers actually arrives.

Despite impressive progress in robotics and machine intelligence, those of us alive today can expect to keep on labouring until retirement. But while Star Trek-style replicators and robot nannies remain generations away, the digital revolution is nonetheless beginning to wreak havoc. Economists and politicians have puzzled over the struggles workers have experienced in recent decades: the pitiful rate of growth in wages, rising inequality, and the growing flow of national income to profits and rents rather than pay cheques. The primary culprit is technology. The digital revolution has helped supercharge globalisation, automated routine jobs, and allowed small teams of highly skilled workers to manage tasks that once required scores of people. The result has been a glut of labour that economies have struggled to digest.

Labour markets have coped the only way they are able: workers needing jobs have little option but to accept dismally low wages. Bosses shrug and use people to do jobs that could, if necessary, be done by machines. Big retailers and delivery firms feel less pressure to turn their warehouses over to robots when there are long queues of people willing to move boxes around for low pay. Law offices put off plans to invest in sophisticated document scanning and analysis technology because legal assistants are a dime a dozen. People continue to staff checkout counters when machines would often, if not always, be just as good. Ironically, the first symptoms of a dawning era of technological abundance are to be found in the growth of low-wage, low-productivity employment. And this mess starts to reveal just how tricky the construction of a workless world will be. The most difficult challenge posed by an economic revolution is not how to come up with the magical new technologies in the first place; it is how to reshape society so that the technologies can be put to good use while also keeping the great mass of workers satisfied with their lot in life. So far, we are failing.

Preparing for a world without work means grappling with the roles work plays in society, and finding potential substitutes. First and foremost, we rely on work to distribute purchasing power: to give us the dough to buy our bread. Eventually, in our distant Star Trek future, we might get rid of money and prices altogether, as soaring productivity allows society to provide people with all they need at near-zero cost.

I wonder how much longer our "leaders" are going to ignore this issue.

Elon Musk: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage

"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."
.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I wonder how much longer our "leaders" are going to ignore this issue.

Elon Musk: Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage

"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."
.

I dont see any alternatives to either UBI with new job mongering policies, or a working class revolution that is bloody as hell, or the imposition of a one party state that is so dreadful that millions are slaughtered as has happened in so many other nations, or finally a huge culling of the population that leaves only about 1/12th of the worlds population alive.

 

[2aguy]

We are about to find out if hilary is elected......