A Verdict on Obama's "Stimulus" Plan

[boedicca]

That would make perfect sense, except....

The economy's been growing Q3 2009 - at a faster average rate than the entirety of the previous administration.

Absolute nonsense.

United States - GDP - real growth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

And GDP growth under Obama has slowed. 1.8% nominal in Q1-11.

After such a deep recession, we should be at 5% growth rates. But when the government increases spending by 25% in actual dollar terms in couple of years and throws out the rule of law in favor of the whim of bureaucrats, the private sector slows down and DOES NOT CREATE NET NEW JOBS.

What the fuck are you talking about?

Average growth rate under President Bush: 2.1%
Average growth rate since Q3 2009: 2.8%.

Quit making shit up.

You need to start reading more things besides TMN's posts.


Here - look up the stats for yourself. The first choice shows period over period GDP changes.

http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Popular=Y

 

[8537]

Absolute nonsense.

United States - GDP - real growth rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year

And GDP growth under Obama has slowed. 1.8% nominal in Q1-11.

After such a deep recession, we should be at 5% growth rates. But when the government increases spending by 25% in actual dollar terms in couple of years and throws out the rule of law in favor of the whim of bureaucrats, the private sector slows down and DOES NOT CREATE NET NEW JOBS.

What the fuck are you talking about?

Average growth rate under President Bush: 2.1%
Average growth rate since Q3 2009: 2.8%.

Quit making shit up.

You need to start reading more things besides TMN's posts.


Here - look up the stats for yourself. The first choice shows period over period GDP changes.

U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

That's where I got the figures. Here, let me help ya:
Bush annual GDP figures:
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.6
3.1
2.7
1.9
0.0
Average = 2.1%

quarterly figures since Q309:
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.1
1.8
Average = 2.8%

Now really, quit making shit up. You look stupid.

 

[8537]

"The third fact puts this in perspective. In a healthy labor market like the one that prevailed in 2006 and early 2007, American firms hire about 5.5 million workers per month. "

So we finally had a healthy labor market five years after the end of the last recession?

Sounds about right. Call me in 2014.

Instead of attempting to debate or refute this post, Rabbi just neg repped instead.

That's because he has no argument, of course, and neg repping me for the fourth time makes him feel good about his little self.

 

[Annie]

Greg Mankiw's Blog: Evaluating ARRA

Friday, May 13, 2011
Evaluating ARRA
Tim Conley and Bill Dupor have a new paper on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (that is, the Obama stimulus bill). Their empirical findings:

Our benchmark results suggest that the ARRA created/saved approximately 450 thousand state and local government jobs and destroyed/forestalled roughly one million private sector jobs. State and local government jobs were saved because ARRA funds were largely used to offset state revenue shortfalls and Medicaid increases rather than boost private sector employment. The majority of destroyed/forestalled jobs were in growth industries including health, education, professional and business services.​

Link to the study at site.

merged

 

[boedicca]

Scooped ya:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/167513-a-verdict-on-obamas-stimulus-plan.html

 

[Care4all]

You people are talking treason. How dare you question the Stimulus Plan? Don't you know that without it we would all be unemployed? Well, most of us would be anyway!

Immie

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

 

[boedicca]

What the fuck are you talking about?

Average growth rate under President Bush: 2.1%
Average growth rate since Q3 2009: 2.8%.

Quit making shit up.

You need to start reading more things besides TMN's posts.


Here - look up the stats for yourself. The first choice shows period over period GDP changes.

U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

That's where I got the figures. Here, let me help ya:
Bush annual GDP figures:
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.6
3.1
2.7
1.9
0.0
Average = 2.1%

quarterly figures since Q309:
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.1
1.8
Average = 2.8%

Now really, quit making shit up. You look stupid.

Only an ignoramous would compare annual to quarterly figures. And the concept of compounding eludes you as well.

But you do get ten points for consistency.

 

[Gadawg73]

Hell, why not just print $50,000 for each American and send it in the mail?
Talk about a stimulus package.
And who pays for it?

 

[Immanuel]

You people are talking treason. How dare you question the Stimulus Plan? Don't you know that without it we would all be unemployed? Well, most of us would be anyway!

Immie

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

 

[Annie]

You people are talking treason. How dare you question the Stimulus Plan? Don't you know that without it we would all be unemployed? Well, most of us would be anyway!

Immie

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

Yep, I'm not getting unemployment, seems that by substitute teaching, I no longer can get paid for 'time off for holidays, breaks, etc.' Now I've no contract and am paid day-to-day. I understand that if I work 3 days, I've made too much. That's cool. However, no pay for spring break, none for summer. I will have made less than $9k from Sept-June, but no recourse, because of 'teaching.' I did finally get a part-time job at Walgreens, though haven't started yet. I figure that's good for hopefully 7.00 an hour. Maybe 20 hours a week?

No Cobra, obviously 100% of salary would have to go to that and I couldn't pay the co-pay, much less the deductible. So, no insurance.

Top it off, my car was rear ended yesterday, so I couldn't work today. My son had borrowed my car and was the one in the wreck. So he got me a rental today, I couldn't rent a car, no credit cards and no money. Thankfully he's a named insured on the policy or that couldn't have been done.

My house has been on the market 3 weeks, short sale. 2 viewings, so far, nothing.

 

[Immanuel]

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

Yep, I'm not getting unemployment, seems that by substitute teaching, I no longer can get paid for 'time off for holidays, breaks, etc.' Now I've no contract and am paid day-to-day. I understand that if I work 3 days, I've made too much. That's cool. However, no pay for spring break, none for summer. I will have made less than $9k from Sept-June, but no recourse, because of 'teaching.' I did finally get a part-time job at Walgreens, though haven't started yet. I figure that's good for hopefully 7.00 an hour. Maybe 20 hours a week?

No Cobra, obviously 100% of salary would have to go to that and I couldn't pay the co-pay, much less the deductible. So, no insurance.

Top it off, my car was rear ended yesterday, so I couldn't work today. My son had borrowed my car and was the one in the wreck. So he got me a rental today, I couldn't rent a car, no credit cards and no money. Thankfully he's a named insured on the policy or that couldn't have been done.

My house has been on the market 3 weeks, short sale. 2 viewings, so far, nothing.

But remember, every week there are positive numbers in the jobs picture, or so we are told.

Immie

 

[Care4all]

You people are talking treason. How dare you question the Stimulus Plan? Don't you know that without it we would all be unemployed? Well, most of us would be anyway!

Immie

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

hope all works out with your son immie. From what i gathered, 1/3 of the stimulus money was for tax cuts and increased unemployment.....put that with the financial aid that they gave to the States and i would have been done....all the rest of the stimulus money spent seems to be for nigh...

I know others may not agree with the federal gvt having to actually use some of our tax monies to help pay for UE due to not having collected enough funds from the employers to pay for all the unemployment....but I am not.

I am also glad the Federal gvt assisted the States.....they were all caught with their pants down with this huge Banking and housing crisis....do I think all of the States used their money wisely? No, they didn't....but I sure as heck did not want the federal gvt dictating to the states on how to spend the money....

I would not have labeled any of that under "stimulus" but more as emergency relief....

I am not certain how unemployment is calculated by the gvt gods, but i do know it has been calculated in the same manner as it was the past decade, or near past decade....so I don't believe it is the Democrats that you should be lashing out at, if you don't like the way it is calculated by our gvt.....but you are in a piss poor mood,, (no job, fight with son etc) so I'll let ya slide!

Immie, take any job you can find at this point....you do not want to lose your house.....ask annie and others, it is a very stressful period...probably takes years off your life from such....

Also, there is a saying...."It is easier to find a new job, when you have a job"....of course, that may not apply during a period of great unemployment as we are going through now...but ya never know.....?

I wish you the best, and good luck in getting a job!

Care

 

[Trajan]

when the cbo said they 'calculated' ( and I use that term loosely) that the stimulus saved or created, 1.3 to 4.2 million jobs, I was aghast.

Now, I don't know about you, but if someone gave me an estimate for say a job they would be doing for me and told me it would come in at somewhere between 130 and 420 dollars, I'd tell them to get bent.

We have what is supposed to be an institution, the CBO who are experts and do this for a living, and has a great deal of sppt. to help it make its estimate. Yet they cannot get that number inside a 300% variance?

Sorry, but that number is useless, period.

 

[Annie]

ummmm, that stimulus bill has been paying you unemployment for over a year....and your health care Cobra as well no? what would you have done without it immie?

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

hope all works out with your son immie. From what i gathered, 1/3 of the stimulus money was for tax cuts and increased unemployment.....put that with the financial aid that they gave to the States and i would have been done....all the rest of the stimulus money spent seems to be for nigh...

I know others may not agree with the federal gvt having to actually use some of our tax monies to help pay for UE due to not having collected enough funds from the employers to pay for all the unemployment....but I am not.

I am also glad the Federal gvt assisted the States.....they were all caught with their pants down with this huge Banking and housing crisis....do I think all of the States used their money wisely? No, they didn't....but I sure as heck did not want the federal gvt dictating to the states on how to spend the money....

I would not have labeled any of that under "stimulus" but more as emergency relief....

I am not certain how unemployment is calculated by the gvt gods, but i do know it has been calculated in the same manner as it was the past decade, or near past decade....so I don't believe it is the Democrats that you should be lashing out at, if you don't like the way it is calculated by our gvt.....but you are in a piss poor mood,, (no job, fight with son etc) so I'll let ya slide!

Immie, take any job you can find at this point....you do not want to lose your house.....ask annie and others, it is a very stressful period...probably takes years off your life from such....

Also, there is a saying...."It is easier to find a new job, when you have a job"....of course, that may not apply during a period of great unemployment as we are going through now...but ya never know.....?

I wish you the best, and good luck in getting a job!

Care

I'm not so sure that is good advice. I lost my job in June, went back substituting 10/1. I could have stayed on unemployment and have made over $15k by now which would have helped keep me afloat. Instead I subbed and now am so screwed!

 

[8537]

You need to start reading more things besides TMN's posts.


Here - look up the stats for yourself. The first choice shows period over period GDP changes.

U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

That's where I got the figures. Here, let me help ya:
Bush annual GDP figures:
1.1
1.8
2.5
3.6
3.1
2.7
1.9
0.0
Average = 2.1%

quarterly figures since Q309:
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.1
1.8
Average = 2.8%

Now really, quit making shit up. You look stupid.

Only an ignoramous would compare annual to quarterly figures. And the concept of compounding eludes you as well.

But you do get ten points for consistency.

Holy shit -you really are that fucking stupid? On a board full of stupid posts, that one might be at the top - and that includes Rabbi's ignorant ramblings.

Hint: The quarterly figures are annualized.

Once you understand basic math, please come back to the discussion. Until then, quit embarrassing yourself with such ignorant shit.

 

[8537]

How were these jobs destroyed?

Lack of economic growth causes companies to seek cost reduction instead of investment opportunities.

That would make perfect sense, except....

The economy's been growing Q3 2009 - at a faster average rate than the entirety of the previous administration.

...and like Rabbi before her, Boedicca couldn't actually debate the facts presented here. So instead she:

1. Neg repped me. I bet she feels real special about that.

2. Made shit up - even provided a link to a site that proves her wrong, i guess in the hopes no one would check it. OR she really doesn't understand annualized growth rates.

 

[Care4all]

COBRA? Are you crazy? Only the absolute richest in society can afford COBRA payments when they are "unemployed".

What would I do without the UE? I don't really know. I'm honestly not sure that receiving unemployment has not kept me from just taking anything at all. I have begun looking outside of the area. I am getting desperate. I am afraid of losing my house, having to file bankruptcy and who knows what else. As far as I am concerned they can put that stimulus money where the sun don't shine. All it seems to have done is postpone the inevitable!

I had a major fight with my son today and I feel like shit.

I can tell you that from the standpoint of the unemployed, the Stimulus Program wasn't worth the paper it was written on.

And how the hell are we supposed to trust the Unemployment figures anyway? Last I remember reading it was at 9%. Supposedly this is the figure from the quarterly survey taken by the government! How do we know the real number is not 19% or 29%? Because the government tells us so?

Because F'ing Democrats tell us it is only 9%?

Immie

hope all works out with your son immie. From what i gathered, 1/3 of the stimulus money was for tax cuts and increased unemployment.....put that with the financial aid that they gave to the States and i would have been done....all the rest of the stimulus money spent seems to be for nigh...

I know others may not agree with the federal gvt having to actually use some of our tax monies to help pay for UE due to not having collected enough funds from the employers to pay for all the unemployment....but I am not.

I am also glad the Federal gvt assisted the States.....they were all caught with their pants down with this huge Banking and housing crisis....do I think all of the States used their money wisely? No, they didn't....but I sure as heck did not want the federal gvt dictating to the states on how to spend the money....

I would not have labeled any of that under "stimulus" but more as emergency relief....

I am not certain how unemployment is calculated by the gvt gods, but i do know it has been calculated in the same manner as it was the past decade, or near past decade....so I don't believe it is the Democrats that you should be lashing out at, if you don't like the way it is calculated by our gvt.....but you are in a piss poor mood,, (no job, fight with son etc) so I'll let ya slide!

Immie, take any job you can find at this point....you do not want to lose your house.....ask annie and others, it is a very stressful period...probably takes years off your life from such....

Also, there is a saying...."It is easier to find a new job, when you have a job"....of course, that may not apply during a period of great unemployment as we are going through now...but ya never know.....?

I wish you the best, and good luck in getting a job!

Care

I'm not so sure that is good advice. I lost my job in June, went back substituting 10/1. I could have stayed on unemployment and have made over $15k by now which would have helped keep me afloat. Instead I subbed and now am so screwed!

I think he has gone through a few extensions now, and is getting very close to being shut off....no more UE..... this is why I think he needs to take anything....

I agree that my cliche, of easier to find a job when you have a job may not be true under these economic circumstances!

When we got to Maine, Matt could not find a job.....we were paying $650-$700 a month for our COBRA, with no income coming in other than his VA disability which was near nil....so a few months in to searching for a job, he just took anything that he could find that had health insurance coverage at less money than we were paying on Cobra.... he still has not found a better job, though he was promoted at the place he took the job at, it is still pennies compared to what he was making in massachusetts....maybe only 40% at best of what he was making there before he got downsized. Yes, we own our house, so no mortgage up here, THANK GOD!

We have LEARNED to live differently....we live without all the gadgets and luxuries we once had, don't take all the vacays we once did, don't buy the filet mignons, fresh shrimp, lamb etc... don't go out to restaurants as frequently, if at all...don't buy new cars.....I don't buy clothes anymore....cuz, I'm not working, i really don't go anywhere and I have enough clothes to cover all women in Ethiopia...plus people up here in my region of maine, just don't give a hoot of what is in FASHION....very down to earth people...blue jeans and flannel shirts are acceptable! hahahahahaha..... there is so much more that we had to cut back on....we are "dealing" with it all and I would not change moving up here for anything....but we are not, in any financial way, improving our lives, at this point....especially with the heating oil price increases!

anyway, what you and Immie are going through is MUCH WORSE....I can see that and my heart goes out to you both!