A second Obama term puts Iran closer to nuclear weapons

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by TheGreatGatsby, Oct 22, 2012.

  1. TheGreatGatsby
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    TheGreatGatsby Gold Member

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    Have you noticed Obama operatives talking about the last two years of sanctions crippling Iran; but not about how Iran has stalled in its efforts to build a nuclear bomb? Shouldn't those two things logically go hand and hand?

    And now, we are hearing about how Obama's regime is secretly meeting behind our backs with Iran to ease sanctions if they agree to.... well I zoned out after that. Nobody and their f'ing dog doesn't think that Iran is going to slow down work on their nuclear program.

    Any talks that are not an all or nothing proposition is a scam and we all know it.
     
  2. there4eyeM
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    there4eyeM unlicensed metaphysician

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    Anyone who wants to parachute into Iran to begin the struggle against obtaining nukes can probably find a way.
     
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  3. idb
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    idb Gold Member

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    "if they agree to..."...what?
     
  4. oldfart
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    oldfart Older than dirt

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    I don't follow this as closely as I should, but here is my understanding. It takes three things to have an effective nuclear weapon (as opposed to a radiological weapon which is much easier to achieve) : 1) a sufficient amount of weapons-grade fissile material, 2) an effective bomb to put the fissile material in, and 3) a delivery system for the bomb. Most of the discussion has been about the first issue, and I think it is fair to say that Iran has enough fissile material for several radiological weapons and 1--2 nuclear weapons. They will be able to produce enough fissile material for 2--3 weapons per year.

    There is a claim floating around that Iran does not yet have a workable bomb to put the material into. As this is the easiest of the the three components, I wonder about this. Even if true, I don't see how this would slow Iran down by more than a few months. I think there is no question that Iran has a theater-range missile capability.

    So that is where it stands regarding capacity; what do we know of intentions? Based on behavior rather than rhetoric, Iran seems to be reasonably circumspect. They have had a "dirty bomb" capacity for several years but show no signs of moving in that direction. They put up a facade of wanting only a peaceful nuclear program rather than using the nuclear program for sabre-rattling. The sanctions have obviously reached a tipping point and the economic damage is cumulative (especially the European oil embargo in that Europeans are finding other suppliers and may never switch back). Continuing the status quo has become an unacceptable option.

    So if waiting it out is no longer an option, Iran has a choice between two courses of action. One is to pull a Khaddafi and get the best deal it can in exchange for a real denuclearization. The other is to develop and test a weapon, then try to negotiate. The goal of US policy has been to make the status quo unacceptable, and this has been done. The logical follow-on strategy would be to make the prospects of negotiation after a nuclear test unpalatable to Iran. We are not quite there yet.

    I think the chances of Iran using a nuclear weapon in a first strike is remote. They are simply not that fanatic. I think their purpose is political and the object is not Israel, it is the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia. Iran wants regional hegemony and control of a large part of the world's oil supply. A major danger is that while distracted by the nuclear issue, the West will not detect Iranian involvement in fomenting revolution in the Gulf. Right now Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey are also providing a distraction. This is what most worries me.

    Finally, does the US have any real military options available? I think we do, but they are not likely to be anything that is talked about in public. I would hold that both a nuclear strike and a substantial ground presence are not considered feasible. Air strikes, drone attacks, and special forces actions, as well as unconventional action such as cyberwarfare
    aimed at the softer targets in the Iranian system (radar, command, communication & control systems, missile launch sites, blockade, naval capacity, selective industrial and transportation targets) could be successful in halting further development and rendering existing stocks of weapons unusable in practice. I don't have high hopes for military action and it is high risk, but if military action becomes necessary, this is what I would expect. If it comes to this, military action should be unilateral and not involve Israel in any way. Remember the assets we most care about are in the Gulf and vulnerable to subversion.

    So if anyone wants to put away the political sound bites and have a realistic discussion of our options (please, no more "We will not let...." comments; the question is HOW), let's have at it.
     
  5. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    If obama gets a second term, Iran will absolutely get nuclear weapons. Egypt wants them too.
     
  6. High_Gravity
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    High_Gravity Belligerent Drunk Supporting Member

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    Iran will just say yes to whatever Obamas says and than continue with their nuclear work, its not hard to figure out. I don't know why us Yankees continue to think someone from Iran or Pakistan will take any agreements we make with them seriously.
     
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  7. Aristotle
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    Aristotle Senior Member

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    Who cares if Iran gets nukes....Only reason why this is an issue is because we cow tail to the Jews of Israel....The Christians of our government need to protect the Holy land so the prophecy can be fulfilled. Didn't you guys get the memo?
     
  8. Coyote
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    Coyote Varmint Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    The way the Obama administration is handling Iran reminds me a little of the way Reagan handled the USSR. According to this article, sanctions are having a serious effect on Iran's stability and one thing they don't want is large-scale social unrest of the type that lead to their revolution in the first place. What is said publicaly isn't always what is said behind the rhetoric.

    Signals From Iran Indicate Willingness To Talk : NPR

     
  9. idb
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    idb Gold Member

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    Maybe the NRA has the right idea.
    Let every country have nuclear weapons so that no one will use them.
    The real problem is clearly that there aren't enough nuclear weapons.
     
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  10. oldfart
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    oldfart Older than dirt

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    And you think we should do ..........
     

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