87% - 99% Certain of Trump Presidency - Prof. Helmut Norpoth

Discussion in 'USMB Breaking News' started by Mrs. M., Oct 22, 2016.

  1. vasuderatorrent
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    vasuderatorrent VIP Member

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    If your candidate wins then you will have to drink water, eat food and breathe air. Are you prepared for those consequences?
     
  2. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    Oh, noes!! I am glad you are sounding reasonable again.
     
  3. Mrs. M.
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    Mrs. M. Man Feed Guest Writer Op-ed Contributor

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    So what? He said he is standing by his study as of 3 days ago. That's good enough for me. The study doesn't have an expiration date, Jake. As he said in the interview he can take that primary model and go back 100 years and prove it each time.
     
  4. JakeStarkey
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    The study's shelf date was last February. Everything since then has not been factored in. You can go back 100 years, yes, but you can't go forward 100 days without its validity weakening each day as new events happen. Probability and statistics are forward looking, and need to be fed every day in this case. Norpoth?'s model's predictiveness is no longer dross much less golden.
     
  5. vasuderatorrent
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    vasuderatorrent VIP Member

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    He never factored in events between the primary and the general election. He used two models. One is based upon the performances of the candidates in the primary. The other is based upon the trend that a party rarely stays in power for 3 presidential terms. None of that will change between the last state's primary and November 8th.
     
  6. Mrs. M.
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    Jake, everything that was needed for the study has been factored in. No need for an update study. He's standing by the results as he said in the interview dated 3 days ago. If Hillary wins we know that it was by rigging the election. We already know she is rigging it but the question is will she be stopped. I believe she will be.
     
  7. vasuderatorrent
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    vasuderatorrent VIP Member

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    Democrat 8 years - Obama
    Republican 8 years - Bush
    Democrat 8 years - Clinton
    Republican 12 years - Bush, Reagan
    Democrat 4 years - Carter
    Republican 8 years - Nixon, Ford
    Democrat 8 years - Johnson, Kennedy
    Republican 8 years - Eisenhower
    Democrat 20 years - Truman, Roosevelt
     
  8. asaratis
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    asaratis Uppity Senior Citizen Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    That's about as ridiculous as it gets. However, it is expected of you.
     
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  9. asaratis
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    asaratis Uppity Senior Citizen Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    How many of them had the House and the Senate at the same time? Obama had both for his first two years and still didn't do a damn thing.
     
  10. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    you're the second idiot who posted this today.

    morons
     

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