625K People Give Up Looking For A Job

[boedicca]

At a GDP growth rate of less than 3%, the economy is not creating private sector jobs. In another thread, I commented that one should be careful what one wishes for in lower unemployment rate. If people give up looking, the U3 rate falls, but for a very negative reason.

That is what is happening with today's announcement. 625,000 gave up looking last month. The barking moonbats are trying to spin this report as being good news because the private sector created 83,000 new jobs. A couple of things to consider:

- Given population growth, the U.S. economy needs to create 130,000 jobs per month just to keep unemployment constant.

- It will take at least 400,000 new jobs per month to reduce unemployment to pre-recession levels over a several year period.

After the Reagan tax cuts went into effect, the economy started growing at 7-9% rates. This is the level we should be seeing now given the depth of the last recession - if Obamanomics actually worked. It doesn't. Obama has wasted ungodly amounts of money with no valid benefit to the private sector and the mass of taxpayers who are saddled with the debt burden.

The US economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, more than economists had forecast, as thousands of temporary census jobs ended and private hiring grew less than expected.
Unemployment line

And though the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.5% from 9.7%, the lowest in a year, it was largely due to more people dropping out of the labor force.

The report was the latest sign that the economic recovery may be faltering.

"Overall what this does is it reinforces the market's view that the U.S. recovery is losing steam,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

News Headlines

 

[Annie]

At a GDP growth rate of less than 3%, the economy is not creating private sector jobs. In another thread, I commented that one should be careful what one wishes for in lower unemployment rate. If people give up looking, the U3 rate falls, but for a very negative reason.

That is what is happening with today's announcement. 625,000 gave up looking last month. The barking moonbats are trying to spin this report as being good news because the private sector created 83,000 new jobs. A couple of things to consider:

- Given population growth, the U.S. economy needs to create 130,000 jobs per month just to keep unemployment constant.

- It will take at least 400,000 new jobs per month to reduce unemployment to pre-recession levels over a several year period.

After the Reagan tax cuts went into effect, the economy started growing at 7-9% rates. This is the level we should be seeing now given the depth of the last recession - if Obamanomics actually worked. It doesn't. Obama has wasted ungodly amounts of money with no valid benefit to the private sector and the mass of taxpayers who are saddled with the debt burden.

The US economy lost 125,000 jobs in June, more than economists had forecast, as thousands of temporary census jobs ended and private hiring grew less than expected.
Unemployment line

And though the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.5% from 9.7%, the lowest in a year, it was largely due to more people dropping out of the labor force.

The report was the latest sign that the economic recovery may be faltering.

"Overall what this does is it reinforces the market's view that the U.S. recovery is losing steam,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

News Headlines

and they are ignoring that new filings are up. The economic news is not good.

 

[boedicca]

We're headed for an ugly double dip - especially if the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire.

 

[Annie]

Indeed, the economic news, even from the left has been noting this for days now:

Job Market "Anemic", Unemployment Rate Falls For "All the Wrong Reasons": Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Job Market "Anemic", Unemployment Rate Falls For "All the Wrong Reasons"

Posted Jul 02, 2010 09:51am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Recession

The U.S. job market remains anemic. Employers cut 1250,00 jobs in June, more than expected. The job cuts came as the government let go 225,000 temporary census workers, as expected. Meanwhile, the private sector gained 83,000 jobs, the sixth-consecutive monthly increase but still less than most economists forecast.

Yet the unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in June from 9.7%, the lowest level in nearly a year. Unfortunately, it dropped “for all the wrong reasons” says Nigel Gault, U.S. chief economist at IHS Global Insight. The unemployment rate is lower simply because the labor market shrank, as more than 650,000 people gave up on the job search last month.

More telling is the "real unemployment" rate, or U6. Including people working part-time and those who've given up looking, the real unemployment rate is 16.5%.

Gault says the lousy job market reflects an economy still weak and companies making due with less. At the current pace, the road to recovery will be long and bumpy.

The Daily Kos summarizes the grim statistics:

About 14.6 million Americans remain unemployed.
45.5% the unemployed, or 6.8 million Americas, have been out of work for 27 weeks or more. The ranks of these long-term unemployed remains at a post-Depression record.
There are now 7.9 million more Americans out of work than when the recession began in December 2007. (Roughly 15 million more are underemployed or have dropped out of the labor force -- and thus the statistical calculations).​

Richard Suttmeier Still Targeting Dow 8500: "But I May Have to Ratchet It Down": Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Richard Suttmeier Still Targeting Dow 8500: "But I May Have to Ratchet It Down"

Posted Jul 02, 2010 10:53am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing

Friday's anemic and disappointing jobs report has done nothing to change the gnawing perception that the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction. As a result, the stock market is likely to continue its recent retreat, according to Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com.

Suttmeier is sticking with a target of Dow 8500, repeating a prediction made here on March 10 and again on May 10 when his advice was to "sell the surge" that followed the EU's $1 trillion bailout plan.

Dow ‘8500 before 11,500' is still Suttmeier's forecast, "but I may have to ratchet it down a bit," he says in the accompanying video. Should the market continue to deteriorate, the veteran technician says the Dow could fall to quarterly support around 7800 and its upside will likely be capped around 10,560 in the second half of 2010. (For the S&P 500, he sees downside risk to 1014 with secondary support in the 750-780 level if things get really ugly.)...

 

[kwc57]

I keep hearing the voices on the radio talk about "people who have given up looking for work". Everytime I hear it, I scratch my head and wonder, who gives up looking for a job? Do they give up eating, putting a roof over their head, paying the water bill, etc.? I've known a good number of people who have lost jobs over the years as the economy has moved up and down. I had a buddy back in the 80's who was out of work for a year. He cut out a lot of fat by cancelling cable and the newspapaer and eating lots of mac and cheese, but he never quit looking for a job. The guy across the street from me lost his job last year. He's been looking for a job. In the meantime, he has painted a number of the houses in our neighborhood along with doing other pick up jobs.

Just how does one "give up" looking for a job? Is it forever? I got laid off last year, I've been looking for a job, but I quit.........I'll just squat on my house until I'm kicked out, bum dinner off my family with job and eventually go live in a box and scounge thru trash bins.

I don't buy the "gave up looking for a job". Bull shit!

 

[boedicca]

In some industries, there are just plain no jobs to be had. My guess: someone who has given up looking for work is dealing with the depressing fact that his career is gone and he needs to figure out a new one.

 

[WeAreSOHelpless]

This is why we need to approve unemployment benefits indefinately.

 

[kwc57]

In some industries, there are just plain no jobs to be had. My guess: someone who has given up looking for work is dealing with the depressing fact that his career is gone and he needs to figure out a new one.

Which is what my friends and acquaintances have done over the years........but they never gave up looking. Since I hear the term mostly on talk radio, my impression is that it is a tactic to claim the unemployment numbers are larger than claimed by the government. Hannity, Ingraham, beck, etc. will say that when you ADD in the folks who have "given up looking for a job", the REAL number is XXX. And each time I ask myself, "who gives up looking for a job"? It isn't logical. It doesn't make sense.

 

[boedicca]

Nice try blaming conservative pundits for including discouraged workers in the unemployment figures, but the Bureau For Labor statistics counts such workers in U4 through U6 definitions of unemployment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys[59] conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.[60] The data are also used to calculate 5 alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:[61]

* U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

Unemployment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[mascale]

(1) A lot people who do Census Work Part Time are retirees. They stop working, and stop looking for work. Much of the job-loss was in Census Workers. It is several hundred thousand people.

(2) It is not clear whether or not the additional boost of the teachers who personally caused the crisis, now not able to do summer school, are actively out looking for work. They are not a part of the labor force, and estimates suggest there may be a lot of them.

(3) It is not clear whether or not the 80,000 BP disaster claims include lots of people, looking for work. The news reports seem to indicate that There Is No Work in Bobby Jindal land. Then he even spread it around to other states--refusing to go full blast to try to help stop the crisis from spreading!

(4) The data is seasonally adjusted, but unusual problems may have skewed it even more.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred"
(Her Majesty's Government, meddling? And in The (former) Colonies?)

 

[kwc57]

Look, I'm conservative, I'm just not a hand wringing, onoz conservative. I take what pundits say with a grain of salt. My favorite is Neal Boortz because he is honest about what he does. He tells you to NEVER take what he says at face value and to judge what he says on your own research and what you know to be true. Then he goes further and tells you that he is an entertainer. Radio stations exist by selling advertising. He has to present a show entertaining enough to keep you tuned in during commercials waiting for him to come back on. If he fails to do that, advertisers will spend their bucks elsewhere. When that happens, radio stations will drop him. Since he likes to eat, he has to entertain. While pundits often believe what they say, they tell you what you want to hear.......so they use a lot of rhetoric that keeps listeners tuning in. Both sides do it, I just recognize it for what it is regardless of who is doing it.

Those people the government classifies as discouraged workers who believe no work is available to them......well I have a different name for them.

 

[mascale]

The actual link that Annie Poster and others seem to be starting with: Contains the paragraph below:

"Employers cut 125,000 jobs last month, the most since October, the Labor Department said Friday. The loss was driven by the end of 225,000 temporary census jobs. Businesses added a net total of 83,000 workers, the sixth straight month of private-sector job gains but not enough to speed up the recovery."

After several months of horrendous job losses, now the average gain of payroll jobs, for the last six months, is about 120,000 per month. That would be horrendous again, where this 2006 or 2007. The contrary position is that even without the summer stimulus, about to get started: The Stimulus itself at least got started.

The counting of job losses is about temporary employment, which may have over-inflated the size of the job-market in previous months. Many are retirees, not normally thought the labor market.

1) There is the Famous Summer Stimulus, now getting started.
2) There is the continuation of The Income Tax Relief of the Refundable Tax Credit continuing.
3) There is the additional Stimulus already happening in the BP Spill Relief.
4) The Senate Republicans are going to be hard-pressed to ignore the demands of Republican Gulf-State Senator constituents: For their people to get on board with Obama-Biden, Gulf-State Restoration, Public Works Stimulus.

It is only June, but there is a November coming up, even this year.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Early Times Even: Are not there forgotten--and even on case by case kind of basis(?)! We know about Stimulus in America!)

 

[Neubarth]

Nice try blaming conservative pundits for including discouraged workers in the unemployment figures, but the Bureau For Labor statistics counts such workers in U4 through U6 definitions of unemployment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys[59] conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.[60] The data are also used to calculate 5 alternate measures of unemployment as a percentage of the labor force based on different definitions noted as U1 through U6:[61]

* U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

U this and U that. It is all crap. If you go to the Universities that conduct independent surveys, you will find that they consistently tabulate that the DOL numbers are a total fabrication. The actual number of unemployed in the United States is well over 30 million and rising.

 

[boedicca]

(1) A lot people who do Census Work Part Time are retirees. They stop working, and stop looking for work. Much of the job-loss was in Census Workers. It is several hundred thousand people.

(2) It is not clear whether or not the additional boost of the teachers who personally caused the crisis, now not able to do summer school, are actively out looking for work. They are not a part of the labor force, and estimates suggest there may be a lot of them.

(3) It is not clear whether or not the 80,000 BP disaster claims include lots of people, looking for work. The news reports seem to indicate that There Is No Work in Bobby Jindal land. Then he even spread it around to other states--refusing to go full blast to try to help stop the crisis from spreading!

(4) The data is seasonally adjusted, but unusual problems may have skewed it even more.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred"
(Her Majesty's Government, meddling? And in The (former) Colonies?)

That is b'loney. Even if all of the people who lost census jobs were included in the 625K who have given up looking, there is an additional 400K of noncensus related unemployed workers.

The real issue is that the ECONOMY IS NOT GROWING FAST ENOUGH TO CREATE JOBS.

Even the CBO recognizes the anemic growth. Historically, the economy grows at an average rate of 3%. The CBO has lowered their projections to the low 2%s.

Not good news for job creation.

 

[topspin]

Zero chance of double dip. 85,000 private sector jobs and May revised up 15,000.

 

[boedicca]

After several months of horrendous job losses, now the average gain of payroll jobs, for the last six months, is about 120,000 per month.

Which is at least 10K short of keeping up with population growth.

 

[topspin]

Yes but it adds to GDP. Growth is slowing for sure but still growth.

 

[boedicca]

Zero chance of double dip. 85,000 private sector jobs and May revised up 15,000.

^ Economically illiterate statement.

In order to keep up with population growth alone, the economy needs to create 130,000 jobs per month. To reduce unemployment to pre-recession levels would require 400,000 new jobs per month and would still take several years.

2 - 3% economic growth is far too slow for real recovery. The impact of the expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts and the massive grow of government from 20% to 25% plus of GDP will tip the country into a double dip if we don't stop the madness.

 

[Paulie]

If you can use your hands and hammer nails, push a paint brush, fix a toilet, etc...

There's plenty of work out there. Maybe not plenty in ALL locations in the country, but there are people looking to get deals on that kind of work and those who know how to do it can undercut the established competition in the area.

It's my belief that a man should learn those skills regardless of what his career is, but there's too many pussies out there.

Suck it up, folks. There's way more bitching and crying going on in this country than there needs to be. We've truly become a nation of spoiled rotten BITCHES.

 

[topspin]

Double dip is negative. GDP will be positive and 6 month average on jobs is over 100,000