51% chance Dems keep the Senate

[Nyvin]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

Fucking skewed polls!

 

[Two Thumbs]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

it's all going to come down to how much bullshit dems can generate that is believable.

last cycle they made it about everything except what was important, if they can do that again, they will keep the senate, if not, and the truth shines through, they won't

 

[DriftingSand]

All the Republicans need to do is keep track of all the Obamacare horror stories sprouting up hither and thither. Save 'em up and bombard the lefties at just the right time. Document all the lies and deceit. Remind America of the 5 or 6 years of horrible economic and employment conditions and they should be able to regain the Senate. But again ... there is the stupid factor that Dems have on their side. Stupid as in voters who were stupid enough to vote for a Dem in the first place.

 

[Two Thumbs]

actually looking at their 8 competitive list, it looks like they are fudging the numbers

3 are clearly going rep with 1 dem and 1 dem probable.

The other 3 are close, and considering what states are in play, it looks like a 1 seat advantage to the reps.

But

if the dems take Two of those, it's a tie, and that would please me even more.

 

[mudwhistle]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

But only if those evil Repugs won't be allowed to depress the repeat Democrat voter.

 

[mudwhistle]

Democrats.........

 

[LoneLaugher]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

it's all going to come down to how much bullshit dems can generate that is believable.

last cycle they made it about everything except what was important, if they can do that again, they will keep the senate, if not, and the truth shines through, they won't

Yeah. Because most American voters are imbeciles and cannot tell when they are being lied to. Right?

 

[mudwhistle]

Back in March the figures were looking like a GOP take over. The recent polls have shown that GOP advantage has largely gone down significantly and with a couple polls in Arkansas and Iowa actually favoring the Democrats, the Democrats for the first time in 2014 actually have a slim favor in retaining the senate.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

Improving opinion on Obamacare? Better opinions of Obama? Are Democrats finally getting a chance to spend money on the same level as the Kochs? Who knows...but the trend is certainly positive for the Democrats.

it's all going to come down to how much bullshit dems can generate that is believable.

last cycle they made it about everything except what was important, if they can do that again, they will keep the senate, if not, and the truth shines through, they won't

Yeah. Because most American voters are imbeciles and cannot tell when they are being lied to. Right?

That's why it's important to stay informed.......but some dumb-asses don't want to bother with knowing the facts.

I've talked to them. Most of these idiots are more concerned with getting sports memorabilia signed, or finding insulators.

 

[LoneLaugher]

it's all going to come down to how much bullshit dems can generate that is believable.

last cycle they made it about everything except what was important, if they can do that again, they will keep the senate, if not, and the truth shines through, they won't

Yeah. Because most American voters are imbeciles and cannot tell when they are being lied to. Right?

That's why it's important to stay informed.......but some dumb-asses don't want to bother with knowing the facts.

I've talked to them. Most of these idiots are more concerned with getting sports memorabilia signed, or finding insulators.

Absolutely. All American voters should be as informed as you. We'd be A-OK!

 

[rightwinger]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

 

[mudwhistle]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

 

[Moonglow]

Polls are not completely 100% accurate...it is just a small segment of the population..

 

[rightwinger]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

What are they going to run on?

Obamacare is a failure. Same thing they have run on for four years. Only now, 10 million voters will be covered and they will not be happy about Republicans taking it away. They will have filed claims and been covered. They will be used to their Obamacare policy

The economy is trudging along, unemployment will be in the low sixes. To a public used to 8-10 percent unemployment, Republicans will not be able to fear monger on 6 percent

 

[mudwhistle]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

What are they going to run on?

Obamacare is a failure. Same thing they have run on for four years. Only now, 10 million voters will be covered and they will not be happy about Republicans taking it away. They will have filed claims and been covered. They will be used to their Obamacare policy

The economy is trudging along, unemployment will be in the low sixes. To a public used to 8-10 percent unemployment, Republicans will not be able to fear monger on 6 percent

Obamacare is a failure.

Regardless whatever lies the administration comes up with, it's still failing. Maybe if they change it enough they can make it suck a bit less, but it's going to drive up the cost of medical care in this country to the point that we won't be able to afford it.....which belies the name Affordable Care Act.

You see, anything Obama touches becomes more expensive.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

I have to disagree, on the basis of electoral history.

The statistical probability that the GOP retains the House is pretty much 100%.

The probability that the GOP gets to 51 seats is well over 70%. 4 of the 6 seats they need are pretty much guaranteed at this point in time. Of course, if they lose KY and GA, then they would need 8 seats total.

Why is the probability so high?

Because at the end of the day, issues hardly have anything to do with it.

Traditionally, the opposition party has made sweeping gains in virtually every mid-term, ESP in a 2nd term mid-term. See: Eisenhower 1958, LBJ 1966, Nixon/Ford 1974, Reagan 1986, Bush 43 2006. The one notable exception of a 2nd term mid-term where it did not happen was Clinton 1998.

In 1958, Eisenhower (R) was at a peak in his popularity and yet, the Republicans got a pasting in the 1958 mid-terms. Ditto Reagan in 1986.


I posted these stats on January 14th, 2014, when hardly anyone was thinking about the mid-terms yet:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...pared-to-presidential-terms-1855-present.html

Take a hard look at those numbers. Go to the link it provides and see the entire chart of all mid-terms since 1854 for yourself. Enlightening, the color-coding.

Electoral history stands strongly on the side of the GOP in the upcoming mid-term election.

But it does little to change anything: the Senate will be just as deadlocked then as it is now. In fact, a GOP controlled congress that starts fucking up right and left is likely to be a boondoggle for the Democratic national ticket in 2016.

 

[Nyvin]

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

What are they going to run on?

Obamacare is a failure. Same thing they have run on for four years. Only now, 10 million voters will be covered and they will not be happy about Republicans taking it away. They will have filed claims and been covered. They will be used to their Obamacare policy

The economy is trudging along, unemployment will be in the low sixes. To a public used to 8-10 percent unemployment, Republicans will not be able to fear monger on 6 percent

Obamacare is a failure.

Regardless whatever lies the administration comes up with, it's still failing. Maybe if they change it enough they can make it suck a bit less, but it's going to drive up the cost of medical care in this country to the point that we won't be able to afford it.....which belies the name Affordable Care Act.

You see, anything Obama touches becomes more expensive.

They'll need some statistics other then "obamacare is failing"

 

[peach174]

I have quite a few liberal Dem friends and they are pretty pissed at what the liberal Dems are doing right now. They also say that they have had with the over reaching government.
Some are staying home, others are thinking about voting R which they haven't done for a very long time.
So I wouldn't put much stock on your poll.

 

[LoneLaugher]

The dire predictions of an Obamacare collapse never materialized
Neither did a failed economy

The usual GOP fear mongering will not be a factor

Dems will hold 51 seats

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

Ruined lives? Whose?

 

[rightwinger]

Dude.

STFU.

It's too early to tell.

But it has ruined a lot of lives. You'll never hear about that from the state run media.

The problem will be getting the real numbers. And that will be as hard as getting these fuckers to give up info on Fast & Furious, the IRS scandal, and everything else they've done. We won't really know till Obama is gone and in hiding on some island. Then it will become a game of make believe between Democrats and Republicans.

What are they going to run on?

Obamacare is a failure. Same thing they have run on for four years. Only now, 10 million voters will be covered and they will not be happy about Republicans taking it away. They will have filed claims and been covered. They will be used to their Obamacare policy

The economy is trudging along, unemployment will be in the low sixes. To a public used to 8-10 percent unemployment, Republicans will not be able to fear monger on 6 percent

Obamacare is a failure.

Regardless whatever lies the administration comes up with, it's still failing. Maybe if they change it enough they can make it suck a bit less, but it's going to drive up the cost of medical care in this country to the point that we won't be able to afford it.....which belies the name Affordable Care Act.

You see, anything Obama touches becomes more expensive.

We all know that Fox viewers will consider Obamacare a failure. But they don't vote Dem anyway. You will have to convince people who actually have Obamacare that they need to give it up. Given that Republicans have nothing to replace it with, that will be a hard sell for 10 million voters