5 Point Obama lead in Ohio...Ohio...Ohio

[BluePhantom]

Presidential Polls 2012 - Latest Swing State Polls: Obama Up in Ohio, Can Romney Reap Elections Without It? : Politics : Latinos Post

Newest Polling

got it, so that poll is good, and say, Suffolks isn't?





I don't buy either one of them anyway.........but hey, in any event you're the first person I am putting on USMB suicide watch if it looks like Romneys going to win......I will have a Waaambulance standing by.

Suffolk University in Boston leans right -- just syain'

yeah...and how about PPP showing O+1. they lean right too? Jeez

 

[Liability]

Presidential Polls 2012 - Latest Swing State Polls: Obama Up in Ohio, Can Romney Reap Elections Without It? : Politics : Latinos Post

Newest Polling

Muhlenberg College/ Morning Call doesn't even bother to obtain the party affiliation of the respondents. http://www.scribd.com/doc/110754880/Oct-22-Muhlenberg-College-Morning-Call-Poll

 

[RoadVirus]

Presidential Polls 2012 - Latest Swing State Polls: Obama Up in Ohio, Can Romney Reap Elections Without It? : Politics : Latinos Post

Newest Polling

try 1.9 on the RCP average, dumb ass...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

They don't want to acknowledge that!

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

got it, so that poll is good, and say, Suffolks isn't?





I don't buy either one of them anyway.........but hey, in any event you're the first person I am putting on USMB suicide watch if it looks like Romneys going to win......I will have a Waaambulance standing by.

Suffolk University in Boston leans right -- just syain'

"Romney won the presidential debate by looking presidential. Obama had a painful case of Biden's smile"
Romney won the presidential debate by looking presidential. Obama had a painful case of Biden's smile – Telegraph Blogs

 

[NYcarbineer]

I love how all liberals can point to are media polls.

what I love is that libtards like the OP used to whine that a single poll was not a good indicator of reality, and that an average of multiple polls like RCP was a better indicator...

until of course the RCP average started going Romney's way, now the single polls showing Obama ahead are suddenly a better indicator.

Dumb ass libtards.

Yeah pretty much. Ignore the average, ignore the trends, ignore the rest of the polls that show something totally different...just pay attention to this poll right here that shows O+5 and ignore that it's a media poll. Fucking tools.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

 

[tjvh]

Even if Obama is up by a few points, or tied... He's a sitting President, and that fact doesn't bode well for him at all.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

got it, so that poll is good, and say, Suffolks isn't?





I don't buy either one of them anyway.........but hey, in any event you're the first person I am putting on USMB suicide watch if it looks like Romneys going to win......I will have a Waaambulance standing by.

Suffolk University in Boston leans right -- just syain'

yeah...and how about PPP showing O+1. they lean right too? Jeez

I am not wedded to any poll organization you are referring to.

you really need to keep up if you want to play

 

[RoadVirus]

what I love is that libtards like the OP used to whine that a single poll was not a good indicator of reality, and that an average of multiple polls like RCP was a better indicator...

until of course the RCP average started going Romney's way, now the single polls showing Obama ahead are suddenly a better indicator.

Dumb ass libtards.

Yeah pretty much. Ignore the average, ignore the trends, ignore the rest of the polls that show something totally different...just pay attention to this poll right here that shows O+5 and ignore that it's a media poll. Fucking tools.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Even if Obama is up by a few points, or tied... He's a sitting President, and that fact doesn't bode well for him at all.

It doesn't, but President Obama is loved by the people. Repeating the media narrative of how weak presidents lose on close races is lazy of you. Most media talking heads get talking points from all sides before going on the air. They are force fed a diet before weighing in.

learn to look at things with a critical eye and you may actually have something to say -- something interesting if not original. Then you will find people listening to you in place of falling asleep as you speak

 

[NYcarbineer]

Best tidbit in the Suffolk Ohio poll,

13% of respondents said they'd never heard of John Kasich.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Yeah pretty much. Ignore the average, ignore the trends, ignore the rest of the polls that show something totally different...just pay attention to this poll right here that shows O+5 and ignore that it's a media poll. Fucking tools.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

Yeah? He was ahead by 2 points in the polls in Ohio in 2008,

and won by 4.

 

[Liability]

Yeah pretty much. Ignore the average, ignore the trends, ignore the rest of the polls that show something totally different...just pay attention to this poll right here that shows O+5 and ignore that it's a media poll. Fucking tools.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

And the RCP AVERAGE incorporates the errors implicit in the polling. So if one poll uses registered voters while another uses likely voters, the inaccuracy of the former still gets averaged in to the latter.

And if SOME polls still persist in going with respondents weighted with a Democrat voter overload (unintentionally or intentionally doesn't matter) then the skewing of those polls' results will ALSO be "incorporated into the "average" outcome.

Ohio and PA and Florida and VA are going to go with Romney.

Watch.

 

[BluePhantom]

Suffolk University in Boston leans right -- just syain'

yeah...and how about PPP showing O+1. they lean right too? Jeez

I am not wedded to any poll organization you are referring to.

you really need to keep up if you want to play

Nor am I. You clearly miss the point. A poll is only useful in context with other polls that either support or refute a given result. The only poll taken after the second debate that supports the CBSNews poll is FoxNews at O+3. It's no surprise that all the media or media affiliated polls taken since the second debate show a far stronger Obama result. That's typical of media polls. The professional polls are all tied or O+1. So the argument that Suffolk leans right is overshadowed by the fact that the other professional organizations are showing a similar result, even PPP who has an indisputable liberal lean...and trust me....I am happy to play anytime.

 

[NYcarbineer]

yeah...and how about PPP showing O+1. they lean right too? Jeez

I am not wedded to any poll organization you are referring to.

you really need to keep up if you want to play

Nor am I. You clearly miss the point. A poll is only useful in context with other polls that either support or refute a given result. The only poll taken after the second debate that supports the CBSNews poll is FoxNews at O+3. It's no surprise that all the media or media affiliated polls taken since the second debate show a far stronger Obama result. That's typical of media polls. The professional polls are all tied or O+1. So the argument that Suffolk leans right is overshadowed by the fact that the other professional organizations are showing a similar result, even PPP who has an indisputable liberal lean...and trust me....I am happy to play anytime.

Most of what you like to call media polls are professional pollsters.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Best tidbit in the Suffolk Ohio poll,

13% of respondents said they'd never heard of John Kasich.

Obama voters, every last one of them

 

[NYcarbineer]

It's odd that there seemed to be little or no objection from the usual suspects on the Right around here when the Gallup poll, aka the outlier, was being singled out to show Romney up by 6.

Suddenly, now, it's a criminal offense, according to those same 'nuts,

to single out the Quinnipiac poll.

 

[Liability]

It's odd that there seemed to be little or no objection from the usual suspects on the Right around here when the Gallup poll, aka the outlier, was being singled out to show Romney up by 6.

Suddenly, now, it's a criminal offense, according to those same 'nuts,

to single out the Quinnipiac poll.

^ dishonest lib hack is dishonest.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

It isn't difficult to notice how many of Liability's posts are personal attacks on posters.

poor tool

 

[UnAmericanYOU]

The Ohio poll was +9 D, the PA one looks more solid but who knows - either could still go either way two weeks out.

Obama is still winning Ohio in the average.

By 2 points according to RCP. Big deal.

Yeah? He was ahead by 2 points in the polls in Ohio in 2008,

and won by 4.

Not really:

Ohio opinion polls
Poll Source Date administered (2008) Democrat % Republican % Lead Margin Others %
Reuters/Zogby Oct 31 – Nov 3 Barack Obama 49.4% John McCain 47.4% 2
Rasmussen Reports Nov 2 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 49% 0
Strategic Vision Oct 31 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 48% 2
Public Policy Polling Oct 31 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 48% 2
Reuters/Zogby Oct 30 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50.2% John McCain 43.9% 6.3
SurveyUSA Oct 30 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 46% 2
University of Cinncinati Oct 29 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 51.5% John McCain 45.7% 5.8
Quinnipiac University Oct 27 – Nov 2 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 43% 7
Columbus Dispatch Oct 22–31 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 46% 6
Mason-Dixon Oct 28–29 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 47% 2
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research Oct 23–28 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 47% 4
SurveyUSA Oct 26–27 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45% 4

two points is well within most MoE, what's hard to believe is a poll is a poll that has Obama up by a larger margin than he won by four years ago.

 

[BluePhantom]

Let's do some real basic calculations here and compare media and media affiliated to the professionals.

Ohio polls prior to first debate (in september)

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
NBC/WSJ/Marist......51.........43.............O+8
Columbus Dispatch..51.........42.............O+9
Washington Post.....52.........44.............O+8
CBS/Quinnapiac......53.........43.............O+10
FoxNews................49.........42.............O+7
Ohio Newspapers....51.........46.............O+5
NBC/WSJ/Marist......50.........43............O+7

Average.................51.........43.28........O+7.72

Professional
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
PPP(D)..................49...........45............O+4
Gravis...................45...........44............O+1
Purple Strategies...48...........44............O+4
McLaughlin(R).......47............44...........O+3
Rasmussen...........47............46...........O+1
ARG.....................48............47...........O+1
PPP(D).................50............45...........O+5
Gravis..................47............43...........O+4
Gravis..................44............47...........R+3

Average...............47.22.......45............O+2.22

Wow.....a 5.5% difference in Obama's favor by the media polls. Well what about between the first and second debates? Let's have a look.

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
NBC/WSJ/Marist.......51.........45.............O+6
CNN/OR...................51.........47.............O+4

Average...................51.........46.............O+5


Professional
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
SUSA.....................45...........42.............O+3
PPP(D)...................51...........46.............O+5
Rasmussen.............48...........47.............O+1
Gravis.....................45..........46.............R+1
ARG.......................47...........48.............R+1
SUSA.....................45...........44.............O+1
WAA......................46...........47.............R+1
Rasmussen.............50...........49.............O+1

Average..............47.125....46.125...........O+1

Well holy shit.....a four point difference in Obama's favor. Well let's look at since the second debate

Media Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
CBS/Quinnapiac......50...........45............O+5
FoxNews................46...........43............O+3

Average.................48............44...........O+4

Professional Polls
Organization........Obama....Romney....Spread
Suffolk...................47...........47..............Tie
PPP(D)...................49...........48..............O+1
Gravis....................47...........47..............Tie
Rasmussen............49............48..............O+1

Average.................48..........47.5............O+0.5

Well son of a bitch....a 3.5% difference in Obama's favor

Now....does anyone want to make the argument that media polls are not biased in Obama's favor? Really?!?!

Now let's look at the CBS/Quinnapiac speficically. Well shit, in every single section they show the highest Obama advantage even over the other media polls that are already showing an Obama bias....and that's why we can safely look at this particular poll and toss it over our shoulder.