william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,402
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This call for an equity bubble is getting silly even though it is starting from reasonable analysis:
The Fed got a stronger than expected response to its, more or less minimal, recent rate hike.
Therefore the Fed can probably combat wage push inflation with fewer wage hikes.
The lower mortgage deduction cap is putting a fairly solid ceiling on middle-class real estate appreciation.
The SALT cap is putting a fairly solid cap on bidding wars for new industrial plants. (The usual tax breaks for new industry come out of the hide of existing industries and gainfully employed labor force.) The wages being brought in are increasingly being offset by the wages migrating elsewhere for lower taxes. This would not be a nearly zero sum game now if not for decades of playing this game based on better terms and tax situations.
Existing hot spots:
Western New York and Optics; MA and robotics; northern CA and Consumer software plus many others exist because of some quirk. New York looks a lot like Germany and the Great Lakes have similar effects to those of the Baltic and North seas so after each World War the US army promoted immigration by German lens grinders and other imaging specialists to the US and they disproportionately settled in Western New York.
Developing hot spots does work, moving them not so much. West coast rocketry is another example of something designed to fail. Rockets sometimes go boom. Because of the Earth's rotation they usually go boom to the east of the launch site, east of Canaveral is ocean. East of west coast launch sites are mountains and lightly but definitely inhabited areas.
The west coast tech giants are trying to move east, a couple of years after the move hidden costs are going to multiply and take them down in stock price. 30,000 is a bad call.
The Fed got a stronger than expected response to its, more or less minimal, recent rate hike.
Therefore the Fed can probably combat wage push inflation with fewer wage hikes.
The lower mortgage deduction cap is putting a fairly solid ceiling on middle-class real estate appreciation.
The SALT cap is putting a fairly solid cap on bidding wars for new industrial plants. (The usual tax breaks for new industry come out of the hide of existing industries and gainfully employed labor force.) The wages being brought in are increasingly being offset by the wages migrating elsewhere for lower taxes. This would not be a nearly zero sum game now if not for decades of playing this game based on better terms and tax situations.
Existing hot spots:
Western New York and Optics; MA and robotics; northern CA and Consumer software plus many others exist because of some quirk. New York looks a lot like Germany and the Great Lakes have similar effects to those of the Baltic and North seas so after each World War the US army promoted immigration by German lens grinders and other imaging specialists to the US and they disproportionately settled in Western New York.
Developing hot spots does work, moving them not so much. West coast rocketry is another example of something designed to fail. Rockets sometimes go boom. Because of the Earth's rotation they usually go boom to the east of the launch site, east of Canaveral is ocean. East of west coast launch sites are mountains and lightly but definitely inhabited areas.
The west coast tech giants are trying to move east, a couple of years after the move hidden costs are going to multiply and take them down in stock price. 30,000 is a bad call.
