I blame manmade global warming.
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong
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21% More Arctic Ice Than in 2012
- Thread starter Weatherman2020
- Start date
This is a year out of date, but it summarizes your cluelessness.
Penelope
Diamond Member
- Jul 15, 2014
- 60,260
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I blame manmade global warming.
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong
That is why its turning into another ocean, and Russia and the US are up there making plans.
- Thread starter
- #4
Nice PowerPoint. You make that yesterday? Your lack of sources surly noted.This is a year out of date, but it summarizes your cluelessness.
Billy_Bob
Diamond Member
Skeptical Shit Science... John Cooks Blog AKA the crayon kidsNice PowerPoint. You make that yesterday? Your lack of sources surly noted.This is a year out of date, but it summarizes your cluelessness.
Billy_Bob
Diamond Member
Wait just one minute! I thought the experts said that the Arctic Ice would all be melted by now.
They're wrong?
Who knew?
We Did...
If you look into the sea going vessel logs of the 1920-1930's the ice levels of today were seen then too. It recovered just like we are seeing today.. Can you say "cyclical behavior"?
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'Realists' use polynomial curves on short term data? That give absurd results?
Did someone change the definition of realist when I wasn't looking? Hahahaha
Perhaps we should wait for at least one or two cycles of the PDO and AMO before turning into chicken littles.
Did someone change the definition of realist when I wasn't looking? Hahahaha
Perhaps we should wait for at least one or two cycles of the PDO and AMO before turning into chicken littles.
Old Rocks
Diamond Member
Now Ian, that is just plain stupid. 35 years is all the satellite data we have for Arctic Ice. And you don't have to put a curve on it to see that the trend is rapidly down. Given the degree of variability in the data, it is possible that we could see, briefly, and ice clear Arctic Ocean as early as next September or as late as 2030.
RollingThunder
Gold Member
- Mar 22, 2010
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In the real world, the prediction was that the Arctic could be effectively ice free in the late summer by 2016 plus or minus 3 years.....as the possible soonest time frame for the ice to be gone.....so even that 'prediction' won't actually be refuted by remaining ice until 2019. It might happen later than that, but a summertime ice free Arctic is definitely on track to happen in the not too distant future, as all of the scientists studying the Arctic affirm.
A paper by principal investigator Professor Wieslaw Maslowski in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences sets out some of the findings so far of the research project:
"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October - November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of [the complete loss of] seasonal sea ice cover."
(Source)
A paper by principal investigator Professor Wieslaw Maslowski in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences sets out some of the findings so far of the research project:
"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October - November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of [the complete loss of] seasonal sea ice cover."
(Source)
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"However, far from record lows, this year the Arctic has seen the quickest refreeze ever recorded with the extent of sea ice growing 405,000 square miles (1.05 million square kilometres) in just three weeks since the September 10 minimum."
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong
....somebody looks pretty fucking stoopid now!!
Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 - they were wrong
....somebody looks pretty fucking stoopid now!!
"quickest refreeze ever recorded"Now Ian, that is just plain stupid. 35 years is all the satellite data we have for Arctic Ice. And you don't have to put a curve on it to see that the trend is rapidly down. Given the degree of variability in the data, it is possible that we could see, briefly, and ice clear Arctic Ocean as early as next September or as late as 2030.
No, what is stupid is putting polynomial curves on short term data that doesn't include a full cycle of either of the two main ocean cycles that are known to affect Arctic sea ice levels. All in the name of alarmism. Do I really need to repost the graph with polynomial curves for all 12 months that showed sea ice extent would be zero even in the winter months by 2030? A patently absurd result that should have made even you realize that reality was not being captured by your method.
And why, pray tell, is there some special meaning being attached to a SIE level of less than 1M anyways?
BTW, are you guys pissed off that a technicality preserved the continuing 4000+ day record of no major hurricanes making landfall on the US? That started right after the prediction for more hurricanes because of global warming? Perhaps the definition of landfall will be changed to stop the embarrassment. Just like so many other thing have been altered, ie temperature records, sea level rise, etc
RollingThunder
Gold Member
- Mar 22, 2010
- 4,818
- 522
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The idiotic anti-science OP was debunked.
In the real world.....this is what the "experts" are actually saying....
Arctic nearly free of summer sea ice during first half of 21st century
NOAA
April 12, 2013
For scientists studying summer sea ice in the Arctic, its not a question of "if" there will be nearly ice-free summers, but "when". And two scientists say that "when" is sooner than many thought -- before 2050 and possibly within the next decade or two.
Arctic sea ice. - (Credit: NOAA)
James Overland of NOAAs Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Muyin Wang of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, looked at three methods of predicting when the Arctic will be nearly ice free in the summer. The work was published recently onlinein the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters.
"Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere," said Overland. "Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change."
"There is no one perfect way to predict summer sea ice loss in the Arctic," said Wang. "So we looked at three approaches that result in widely different dates, but all three suggest nearly sea ice-free summers in the Arctic before the middle of this century."
NOAA scientists explore the Arctic during a 2005 mission. - (Credit: NOAA)
Overland and Wang emphasized that the term "nearly" ice free is important as some sea ice is expected to remain north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.
● The "trendsetters" approach uses observed sea ice trends. These data show that the total amount of sea ice decreased rapidly over the previous decade. Using those trends, this approach extrapolates to a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by 2020.
● The "stochasters" approach is based on assuming future multiple, but random in time, large sea ice loss events such as those that occurred in 2007 and 2012. This method estimates it would take several more events to reach a nearly sea ice-free state in the summer. Using the likelihood of such events, this approach suggests a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by about 2030 but with large uncertainty in timing.
● The "modelers" approach is based on using the large collection of global climate model results to predict atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice conditions over time. These models show the earliest possible loss of sea ice to be around 2040 as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the Arctic warms. But the median timing of sea ice loss in these models is closer to 2060. There are several reasons to consider that this median timing of sea ice loss in these models may be too slow.
"Some people may interpret this to mean that models are not useful. Quite the opposite," said Overland. "Models are based on chemical and physical climate processes and we need better models for the Arctic as the importance of that region continues to grow.
Taken together, the range among the multiple approaches still suggests that it is very likely that the timing for future sea ice loss will be within the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.
In the real world.....this is what the "experts" are actually saying....
Arctic nearly free of summer sea ice during first half of 21st century
NOAA
April 12, 2013
For scientists studying summer sea ice in the Arctic, its not a question of "if" there will be nearly ice-free summers, but "when". And two scientists say that "when" is sooner than many thought -- before 2050 and possibly within the next decade or two.
Arctic sea ice. - (Credit: NOAA)
James Overland of NOAAs Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Muyin Wang of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, looked at three methods of predicting when the Arctic will be nearly ice free in the summer. The work was published recently onlinein the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters.
"Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere," said Overland. "Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change."
"There is no one perfect way to predict summer sea ice loss in the Arctic," said Wang. "So we looked at three approaches that result in widely different dates, but all three suggest nearly sea ice-free summers in the Arctic before the middle of this century."
NOAA scientists explore the Arctic during a 2005 mission. - (Credit: NOAA)
Overland and Wang emphasized that the term "nearly" ice free is important as some sea ice is expected to remain north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.
● The "trendsetters" approach uses observed sea ice trends. These data show that the total amount of sea ice decreased rapidly over the previous decade. Using those trends, this approach extrapolates to a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by 2020.
● The "stochasters" approach is based on assuming future multiple, but random in time, large sea ice loss events such as those that occurred in 2007 and 2012. This method estimates it would take several more events to reach a nearly sea ice-free state in the summer. Using the likelihood of such events, this approach suggests a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by about 2030 but with large uncertainty in timing.
● The "modelers" approach is based on using the large collection of global climate model results to predict atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice conditions over time. These models show the earliest possible loss of sea ice to be around 2040 as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the Arctic warms. But the median timing of sea ice loss in these models is closer to 2060. There are several reasons to consider that this median timing of sea ice loss in these models may be too slow.
"Some people may interpret this to mean that models are not useful. Quite the opposite," said Overland. "Models are based on chemical and physical climate processes and we need better models for the Arctic as the importance of that region continues to grow.
Taken together, the range among the multiple approaches still suggests that it is very likely that the timing for future sea ice loss will be within the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.
Billy_Bob
Diamond Member
Blunder boy shows his total ignorance by regurgitating bull shit proved wrong... by empirical evidence..
How does it feel to be consistently wrong?
How does it feel to be consistently wrong?
Vandalshandle
Gold Member
What does NASA know? Hell, doesn't everyone get their science facts from a British blog that nobody has ever heard of?
RollingThunder
Gold Member
- Mar 22, 2010
- 4,818
- 522
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How does it feel to be consistently wrong?
You are the one who could tell us!
In the real world....
The seasonal minimum for 2016 was tied with 2007 as second lowest extent for the month of September after the extremely record low in 2012.
Figure 3. Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2016 shows a decline of 13.3% per decade. - Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center - High-resolution image
*****
Wait just one minute! I thought the experts said that the Arctic Ice would all be melted by now.
They didn't. The deniers are just lying again. Deniers do that constantly, being that all the data contradicts them.
They're wrong?
Who knew?
_One_ scientist, Wadhams, keeps making such predictions. The others don't, and most scientists think Wadhams is an old crank.
Naturally, deniers like to quote Wadhams exclusively. It's one of their favorite tactics, that kind of lying-by-cherrypicking. I imagine some of them were about to run off and do it again. Heck, some of them will still probably do it, being they believe they have a god-given right to engage in any sleaze that helps their cause.
If you look into the sea going vessel logs of the 1920-1930's the ice levels of today were seen then too.
Bullshit.
The Danish kept good sea ice records during that era, based on those ship repeats. They all show much more ice at that time.
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