2017 Apparent Fluke Rather Than Forecast For The Future?

[toobfreak]

The 2017 season was a clear and certain forecast for the grave outlook for our future, thanks to man-made climate change, except that now they've downgraded the very next year 2018 as being below average! Despite all of the supposed global warming, it turns out that the Atlantic has become COOLER than usual, forcing forecasters to downgrade the number and severity of hurricanes for this year to 3 likely CAT 3s and less than a 40% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US.



Experts now predict a 'below-average' 2018 hurricane season

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The 2017 season was a clear and certain forecast for the grave outlook for our future, thanks to man-made climate change, except that now they've downgraded the very next year 2018 as being below average! Despite all of the supposed global warming, it turns out that the Atlantic has become COOLER than usual, forcing forecasters to downgrade the number and severity of hurricanes for this year to 3 likely CAT 3s and less than a 40% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US.



Experts now predict a 'below-average' 2018 hurricane season

They update their projections, the Arctic is now completely lice free

 

[TNHarley]

Well, i did stop farting last year. Maybe that helped.
Or maybe not, IDK. Im full of shit so dont pay attention to me..

 

[skookerasbil]

More goofball alarmist prediction fAiL.

Exactly why in 2018, nobody is caring about global warming.

 

[Tax Man]

Actually lots of people are. In the SF Bay Area there is a new set of challenges for building design that incorporates the rising level of the oceans. They are like many around the world for areas that abut the oceans.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The 2017 season was a clear and certain forecast for the grave outlook for our future, thanks to man-made climate change, except that now they've downgraded the very next year 2018 as being below average! Despite all of the supposed global warming, it turns out that the Atlantic has become COOLER than usual, forcing forecasters to downgrade the number and severity of hurricanes for this year to 3 likely CAT 3s and less than a 40% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US.



Experts now predict a 'below-average' 2018 hurricane season

If you don't understand that a down year (or even 5 or ten) does not refute the accepted theories, then you really need not to talk about this topic again until you read up on it.

 

[skookerasbil]

Actually lots of people are. In the SF Bay Area there is a new set of challenges for building design that incorporates the rising level of the oceans. They are like many around the world for areas that abut the oceans.

But that's hardly lots of people...in fact, that's hardly any people if the implication here is we need action on climate change. In fact, in relative terms, its nobody!!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Actually lots of people are. In the SF Bay Area there is a new set of challenges for building design that incorporates the rising level of the oceans. They are like many around the world for areas that abut the oceans.

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya! I guess the Gore mansion, that he recently bought, which sits 4' above sea level, is going to flood real soon.....

Funny how Gore buys something he predicts will be under water in 20 years for 19 million dollars.. Does this sound worried about sea level rise?

Fucking Idiots.... The elitists behaviors around the world prove this is a power grab and not a real problem...

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

 

[Sunsettommy]

The 2017 season was a clear and certain forecast for the grave outlook for our future, thanks to man-made climate change, except that now they've downgraded the very next year 2018 as being below average! Despite all of the supposed global warming, it turns out that the Atlantic has become COOLER than usual, forcing forecasters to downgrade the number and severity of hurricanes for this year to 3 likely CAT 3s and less than a 40% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US.



Experts now predict a 'below-average' 2018 hurricane season

If you don't understand that a down year (or even 5 or ten) does not refute the accepted theories, then you really need not to talk about this topic again until you read up on it.

As usual your blazing ignorance is evident, here are some new published science papers you missed:

From AGU 100,

An Energetic Perspective on United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Droughts

"Abstract
The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought. We introduce an extended climatology of U.S. tropical cyclone activity based on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and use this data set to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. The drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average. Scaling this landfall activity metric by basin‐wide activity reveals a statistically significant downward trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period. "

and,

Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

"Abstract
Over the 1997–2014 period, the mean frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was markedly lower (~18%) than the period 1980–1996. Here we show that these changes were driven by an intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP tied to the changes in the Walker circulation, which arose primarily in response to the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic, while the SST anomalies associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the tropical Pacific and the anthropogenic forcing play only secondary roles. These results are based on observations and experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast‐oriented Low‐ocean Resolution Coupled Climate Model coupled climate model. The present study suggests a crucial role of the North Atlantic SST in causing decadal changes to WNP TC frequency. "

 

[Sunsettommy]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

Projections to year 2100 is not falsifiable therefore junk.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

In no way does that refute a word I said. Not that you read a single word of it, anyway.

And....why are you still here, dummy? I thought you were going to take your show on the road. When is your next university debate? Your next peer reviewed research paper? Remind us again what your specialized field is...

Haha, just kidding, loser. Enjoy screaming into your monitor, you uneducated fool...

 

[skookerasbil]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

Meh

For 2 decades, people have been watching these "scientific" predictions fall flat on their face time after time. The problem occurs as time passes which is why very few take these predictions seriously anymore. They've seen them on drought, tornados, hurricanes etc and actually the opposite has happened...........so nobody puts any faith in these predictions. Plus they are now on to the whole computer model prediction ruse. Sounded impressive 10 or 20 years ago but impress nobody in 2018. Because they now see that computer model does not equate to accuracy.

Nobody cares about the 3mm

SSDD posted up before/after pics of coastal areas with a 50+ year gap....no difference. Only progressives who tend to the hysterical are going to notice a few inches of rise. Normal people have alot more shit to worry about!

 

[Sunsettommy]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

Meh

For 2 decades, people have been watching these "scientific" predictions fall flat on their face time after time. The problem occurs as time passes which is why very few take these predictions seriously anymore. They've seen them on drought, tornados, hurricanes etc and actually the opposite has happened...........so nobody puts any faith in these predictions. Plus they are now on to the whole computer model prediction ruse. Sounded impressive 10 or 20 years ago but impress nobody in 2018. Because they now see that computer model does not equate to accuracy.

Nobody cares about the 3mm

Yeah like these:

Ice-Free Arctic Forecasts

Hurricane years has been lower than the big year 2005 for the last 12 consecutive years!

Now we see a COOLING North Atlantic ongoing:

From AGU Publications,

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

"Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and
climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the
Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared
to 2004–2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a
northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface
temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate
models. Concurrent changes in air-sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean
heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange
over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor
in decadal-scale variability of North Atlantic climate."

 

[Billy_Bob]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

LOL

Speaking of idiots.... you got the crown...

Tell me where your computer derived fiction is shown by hard land measurements and aggressive rule out of land subsidence... I'll wait for the empirically observed evidence....

Here's a hint moron, land based measurements show 1mm or less... BECAUSE ICE ON WATER WILL NOT INCREASE SEA LEVEL!

 

[SSDD]

That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya!

Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.

LOL

Speaking of idiots.... you got the crown...

Tell me where your computer derived fiction is shown by hard land measurements and aggressive rule out of land subsidence... I'll wait for the empirically observed evidence....

Here's a hint moron, land based measurements show 1mm or less... BECAUSE ICE ON WATER WILL NOT INCREASE SEA LEVEL!

He is a funny guy isn't he? Talk and talk and talk....but can't seem to produce a single bit of actual observed, measured data to back up any of it...and when you call him on it, he reverts to mewling and impotent name hurling as if that somehow made his position stronger....right up there with rolling thunder thinking that if he types it in ALLCAPS and BOLD it must be true.

Maybe he is just embarrassed to publicly show what passes for "evidence" in that little mind of his.

 

[skookerasbil]

This forum is getting increasingly boring.... we don't even have to try hard anymore!