2016: Sober Analysis, Please

[Nyvin]

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

More than enough votes available: Blue States that voted Red in 2004.

United States 2012 Presidential Electoral Votes Per State - iWeblists

The four states that voted for Bush that I believe have definitely trended left since then are Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Florida (29) is a lock for Bush. If he wins Virginia (13), he will only need Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and one of the others to be elected.

He'll have to win at least 35% of the Hispanic vote to get Florida or a higher percentage of whites. Demographically Florida is about 3-4% less white then it was in 2004.
-Virginia has been drifting left the past decade and is becoming less white as Hispanics and Asians move into the state(73-75% democratic demographics). I'd give Jeb maybe a 30% chance of winning it if Hillary has a bad campaign.
-Colorado hasn't been won since Jebs brother won it in 2004 at the presidential level. Lost a couple percent in the white category and has become more liberal as more people move their from California...Pretty much the Oregon of the Rockies!
North Carolina could go both ways.

Looking at the state by state polling I'd say Hillary will have to seriously fucked up for a republican to win.

Good analysis, but polling is too early and external events do not bode well for Hillary. Also, there are some other dynamics (gay rights, employment) which could affect the Black and Hispanic vote.

Employment was worse in 2012 and Obama openly supported gay marriage in 2012 and he still won the election and the Hispanic and Black vote by more than almost any other Democratic candidate ever.

 

[Agit8r]

The GOP has two possibilities for winning the election:

A) Nominate Rand Paul (who can win such states as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire, which none of the other GOP nominees stand a chance in.)

B) If the Democratic Party nominates Bernie Sanders

Either of those seems like a long-shot at this point.

 

[Nyvin]

The GOP has two possibilities for winning the election:

A) Nominate Rand Paul (who can win such states as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire, which none of the other GOP nominees stand a chance in.)

B) If the Democratic Party nominates Bernie Sanders

Either of those seems like a long-shot at this point.

For the Democratic Primary I think Sanders will do well with heavily white and liberal states like New England, Iowa, and Cascadia, but will get crushed very quickly in southern states and states will large non-white populations like New York, Michigan, Virginia, and Florida. He just doesn't have much appeal outside of the "hippy" crowd.

For the General I think Nevada and New Mexico are most likely out of reach for the GOP regardless of the candidates. New Hampshire can still be won but it'd be pretty tough. Colorado is most certainly winnable for the GOP with Hillary as the Dem candidate, but Jeb polls equally as badly as Hillary in the state so it'll most likely just end up as a regular swing state between the two of them.

 

[Agit8r]

The GOP has two possibilities for winning the election:

A) Nominate Rand Paul (who can win such states as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire, which none of the other GOP nominees stand a chance in.)

B) If the Democratic Party nominates Bernie Sanders

Either of those seems like a long-shot at this point.

For the Democratic Primary I think Sanders will do well with heavily white and liberal states like New England, Iowa, and Cascadia, but will get crushed very quickly in southern states and states will large non-white populations like New York, Michigan, Virginia, and Florida. He just doesn't have much appeal outside of the "hippy" crowd.

For the General I think Nevada and New Mexico are most likely out of reach for the GOP regardless of the candidates. New Hampshire can still be won but it'd be pretty tough. Colorado is most certainly winnable for the GOP with Hillary as the Dem candidate, but Jeb polls equally as badly as Hillary in the state so it'll most likely just end up as a regular swing state between the two of them.

My guess is that Colorado would not forfeit all the tax money they get from weed, by voting for Jeb (or any Republican besides Rand Paul).

 

[ScienceRocks]

The GOP has two possibilities for winning the election:

A) Nominate Rand Paul (who can win such states as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire, which none of the other GOP nominees stand a chance in.)

B) If the Democratic Party nominates Bernie Sanders

Either of those seems like a long-shot at this point.

Why would moderates vote for a loserterian? Most of the center wants their highways paved, nws, nasa, ssi, etc. This goes double for Hispanics that have grown to be a respectable voting bloc in both Nevada and New mexico that very much relies on a solid safety net. The mindset of Mexican politics is that the need to invest and build...Some of this does spill over with our Hispanic community.

The reason Jeb is doing so good is because he gives off the idea of investment isn't above a republican. I do agree with the conservatives that giving away money to give it away is dumb, but I find it the height of idiocy not to invest.

Rand paul sucks...I'd rather vote Cruz. seriously, Rubio or Jeb stands a better chance in getting them as more Hispanics would come out to vote for them. Nevada has gained about 14% in the Hispanic category since George w Bush won it in 2000.


As for Sanders...Well, if he comes out for infrastructure, science, r&d and education. I believe he could give even Bush and Rubio a good race.

 

[Agit8r]

The GOP has two possibilities for winning the election:

A) Nominate Rand Paul (who can win such states as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire, which none of the other GOP nominees stand a chance in.)

B) If the Democratic Party nominates Bernie Sanders

Either of those seems like a long-shot at this point.

Why would moderates vote for a loserterian? Most of the center wants their highways paved, nws, nasa, ssi, etc. This goes double for Hispanics that have grown to be a respectable voting bloc in both Nevada and New mexico that very much relies on a solid safety net. The mindset of Mexican politics is that the need to invest and build...Some of this does spill over with our Hispanic community.

The reason Jeb is doing so good is because he gives off the idea of investment isn't above a republican. I do agree with the conservatives that giving away money to give it away is dumb, but I find it the height of idiocy not to invest.

Rand paul sucks...I'd rather vote Cruz. seriously, Rubio or Jeb stands a better chance in getting them as more Hispanics would come out to vote for them. Nevada has gained about 14% in the Hispanic category since George w Bush won it in 2000.


As for Sanders...Well, if he comes out for infrastructure, science, r&d and education. I believe he could give even Bush and Rubio a good race.

I'm not saying who I like (I like Bernie), I'm just talking electoral math.

 

[ScienceRocks]

No republican can win without florida, Nev, Co....Each of these have a solid minority to majority Hispanic populations. I don't see a people that vote 73% for big government democrats like Obama, Gore, Clinton going for someone that doesn't believe we should pave our roads.

The republicans would be wise to go moderate on fiscal issues that make sense. The sober reality of the matter is the reality that his father never got more then 3-5% of the vote. Every time the republicans run a small government fiscal conservative they lose as most people expect their roads paved, a strong police force, and leadership from that government. This goes for the republican primary as each one that ended up winning was a moderate in fiscal issues(George Hw Bush, Dole, George W Bush, McCain, Romney).

REAGAN wasn't small government but SANE government. That's the difference.

 

[ScienceRocks]

What will win for the republicans???
1. Moderate but accountable fiscal stances. People want America to build things and be a leader! People want us to build dams, construct levies, and go to mars! As long as we don't blow money idiotically while doing it.
2. Sane conservative policies on social issues. Our candidates need to come out as pro-family as that is at the core of what makes America great. Next we need to be tough on immigration but willing to reward hard work for the illegals that have done so...Lastly, maybe allow abortion to 20 weeks, birth control and sane approaches at educating woman to be responsible.
3. Be tough on crime

I honestly think Rubio or Jeb has the best chance as they fit this the best. A loserterian hasn't won a single primary in 40 years and I don't think that will change in 2016!

4. We need to fix our educational system. We either do this or we will be importing more h1b's into our country....It has nothing to do with rather it is ran by the government or not as every single one of the top 10 systems on earth are ran by GOVERNMENTS.

 

[imawhosure]

I believe the driving issue is going to be illegal immigration. I also believe that Ted Cruz is going to win the repub nomination, despite both his own party and the libs fighting tooth and nail to stop him.

The reason repubs haven't been winning, is because there is no driving force between all factions to get them elected, but this time it is different if a conservative wins the nomination.

Illegal immigration, (that disqualifies every lib) foreign policy, debt, and the economy will drive this election. Trump will scream about illegals all the way through as long as in the debates. His message will resonate with Americans as most agree with his position according to the pols, but he won't win. Someone who presents themselves in the same position will, and that will be Cruz or Walker. In fact, if Cruz wins, I can see Walker as his running mate to carry Wisconsin.

Respectfully to Matthew; a moderate republican can not win. The base would have to despise the democratic candidate to vote for a rino, and who more did they despise than Obama running for his 2nd term?

And so, while I do not know personally, from everything I have read, Cruz is a great debater; and the experts (not me, I am just regurgitating what they say) proclaim that the only person able to win the repub nomination outright without convention is Cruz. (something to do with Texas and a few blue states where he is very popular with the repubs)

Now establishment repubs shudder at the thought, but it does draw great contrast. The question is.............are we about fixing it, or rather are we about managing our nations decline?

Every republican knows we are in deep trouble fiscally. We have to do something reasonably quickly as a country, or we are lost. And so, are we willing just to win, put up someone and proclaim we are the winners, just to see them fail our country, or would we rather put up someone who could fix the country, but might lose?

Our children and grandchildren are relying on us to make this decision. If we choose wrong, our generation will be the one who "gave America away."

We know what Hilly is probably going to do. We also know what Jebster is probably going to do. If you honestly look at it, they should run together as Presedential candidate, and VP. But, are their policies the solution, or more of the same problem?

I would ask the democrats this..............is Obama or Hilly JFK?

And to the republicans I would ask.......is Jebster Reagan?

On the republican side, you have a chance to pick someone (s) like Reagan, sadly on the democratic side, you have nobody like JFK!

 

[JakeStarkey]

Cruz, imo, has maybe a 1 in 15 chance of winning the nomination.

Illegal immigration is far less an issue than it was even three years ago.

The Austin Statesman's "Ahora Sí", which I was reading today, was smacking Jeb Bush's supposed affinity for immigrants and immigration.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Reagan supported science, infrastructure and intelligent fiscal policy. The guy didn't cut science but expanded it....


Is Cruz going to do that?

 

[Mac1958]

I'd guess Jeb is the one to beat for the GOP, but things could get pretty interesting for the Dems if Biden jumps in.

.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Biden is not going to take votes away from either Hillary or Sanders.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Reagan supported science, infrastructure and intelligent fiscal policy. The guy didn't cut science but expanded it....


Is Cruz going to do that?

Reagan also gave millions of wetbacks amnesty. Weeeeeeee!

 

[Bush92]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush has the inside track for the GOP nomination. He seems to project both the experience and temperament to be President. Any family "dynasty" issue would be canceled by Hillary's nomination, and Bush 43's foreign policy is looking better and better. His potential appeal to Hispanic voters is an added bonus and, by election time, conservatives will realize that, for them, any GOP President would be better than Hillary.

Hillary's once certain prospects for the Democratic nomination are showing cracks in that edifice. The steady drip of "Emailgate" will eventually create electability doubts among her supporters and cement negative perceptions of her character among the undecided. Her greatest strength at this point is the lack of serious challengers. (Bernie Sanders could only be nominated if the Democrats give up like they did with Dukakis in 1984.)

Sorry if this sounds partisan, but it is not intended to be. At this point, I think both Jeb and Hillary have 60/40 chances of being nominated, and an even shot at being elected. Time will tell...

How do you handicap these races?

Bush or Clinton...not going to happen despite extreme efforts made by political and media establishments in NYC and Washington D.C. a.k.a. Versailles.
Ones to Watch: GOP: Trump, Perry, Huckabee Dem's: Jim Webb* se my post below for reasons.

 

[Bush92]

At the risk of actually providing a sober analysis...

The GOP needs to ask itself a question. After the last debacle and the ensuing autopsies, it was determined that there needed to be an outreach to blacks, women and Hispanics. What has happened since 2012? Blacks are just as firmly entrenched with the Democratic party. Hispanic media is being sued by one of the GOP front runners and the immigration bill that was passed by a bi-partisan Senate sits lonely on John Boehner's desk.

Given that Obama won 332-206 (have I mentioned that?), the GOP needs to swing 64 votes to get to 270. There doesn't seem to be much reason for them to switch on such a grand scale.

What debacle are you talking about? Winning the Senate and increasing numbers in the House. The GOP DOES NOT have to cave to Jacobin leftist media. Why is Trump so popular? Because he speaks the TRUTH. Also, Obama has done nothing on immigration except weaken our borders and stop good American's like Sheriff Joe Arpio from protecting the people of Maricopa County.

 

[Nyvin]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush has the inside track for the GOP nomination. He seems to project both the experience and temperament to be President. Any family "dynasty" issue would be canceled by Hillary's nomination, and Bush 43's foreign policy is looking better and better. His potential appeal to Hispanic voters is an added bonus and, by election time, conservatives will realize that, for them, any GOP President would be better than Hillary.

Hillary's once certain prospects for the Democratic nomination are showing cracks in that edifice. The steady drip of "Emailgate" will eventually create electability doubts among her supporters and cement negative perceptions of her character among the undecided. Her greatest strength at this point is the lack of serious challengers. (Bernie Sanders could only be nominated if the Democrats give up like they did with Dukakis in 1984.)

Sorry if this sounds partisan, but it is not intended to be. At this point, I think both Jeb and Hillary have 60/40 chances of being nominated, and an even shot at being elected. Time will tell...

How do you handicap these races?

Bush or Clinton...not going to happen despite extreme efforts made by political and media establishments in NYC and Washington D.C. a.k.a. Versailles.
Ones to Watch: GOP: Trump, Perry, Huckabee Dem's: Jim Webb* se my post below for reasons.

Jim Webb is a ghost of a past age....he'll drop out before the year is over probably.

 

[Bush92]

It seems to me that Jeb Bush has the inside track for the GOP nomination. He seems to project both the experience and temperament to be President. Any family "dynasty" issue would be canceled by Hillary's nomination, and Bush 43's foreign policy is looking better and better. His potential appeal to Hispanic voters is an added bonus and, by election time, conservatives will realize that, for them, any GOP President would be better than Hillary.

Hillary's once certain prospects for the Democratic nomination are showing cracks in that edifice. The steady drip of "Emailgate" will eventually create electability doubts among her supporters and cement negative perceptions of her character among the undecided. Her greatest strength at this point is the lack of serious challengers. (Bernie Sanders could only be nominated if the Democrats give up like they did with Dukakis in 1984.)

Sorry if this sounds partisan, but it is not intended to be. At this point, I think both Jeb and Hillary have 60/40 chances of being nominated, and an even shot at being elected. Time will tell...

How do you handicap these races?

Bush or Clinton...not going to happen despite extreme efforts made by political and media establishments in NYC and Washington D.C. a.k.a. Versailles.
Ones to Watch: GOP: Trump, Perry, Huckabee Dem's: Jim Webb* se my post below for reasons.

Jim Webb is a ghost of a past age....he'll drop out before the year is over probably.

Really? Bernie and Hillary are not relics of the past? Oh yes, Webb actually made sense when he commented that Democratic Party has gone too far left and turned its back on White voters.

 

[imawhosure]

Reagan supported science, infrastructure and intelligent fiscal policy. The guy didn't cut science but expanded it....


Is Cruz going to do that?

I have no idea on the science or infrastructure, (thought Obama took care of that with all those shovel ready jobs, lol) but he absolutely a fiscal conservative. But I do know exactly what Jebster will do, and that is continue big government that we can no longer afford.

Again I ask people from both partys..............what do you actually want, the person who has the best chance to win, or the person who has the best chance to fix it?

And as far as the 1 in 15 chance for Cruz, let us wait until the debates. I am told he will clean all of their clocks as he as debated and won on numerous occasions in front of the supreme court. He is by far the smartest of all the candidates as far as IQ. He and Scott Walker are the two the rinos want to get rid of the most.

Hillary and Jebster stand for MORE OF THE SAME, period. They both stand for continued open borders also, and almost 67%% of VOTING Americans disagree with their stance. Why do you think Trump is so popular? How he presents his argument is ridiculous, but his debate point is valid and popular with the American people. They want the border SLAMMED SHUT! Nobody gets up and says it that is a politician, because their funding would drop. He doesn't care, he can fund himself.

Forget if you like, or hate Trump, just know this; without him, this debate would not be happening. Now it is up to the candidates to show statistics that back their claims. What is wrong with that?

I will tell you what is wrong with that if you are libs or rinos...............he is not lying, in fact, statistics show he is not only correct but it is worse than what he says. Why do you think both sides want him out of there so they can kiss them some illegal derriere without the citizens of this country getting so pissed, they might decide to throw them all out, or any of them they can this time around!

Washington DC is not America. They do not get it. New York is not either, and California is little Mexico. The heartland is pissed, and smoke is coming out of their ears. I know DEMOCRATS who insist they will vote republican if the nominee will slam the border shut! I also know republicans who will NOT vote for President if the republican nominee will not SLAM THE BORDER SHUT.

That is powerful statements from friends on both sides of the aisle, so if a rino like Jebster gets the nomination, Hilly wins hands down.