2014 battle for control of the US Senate

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Statistikhengst, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Derideo_Te
    Offline

    Derideo_Te Je Suis Charlie

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2013
    Messages:
    20,464
    Thanks Received:
    7,287
    Trophy Points:
    360
    Ratings:
    +12,089
    "Sen. Hagan has failed the people of North Carolina and the nation by not securing our border," Tillis said during an Oct. 7 debate with Hagan. "Ladies and gentlemen, we have an Ebola outbreak, we have bad actors who can come across the border. We need to seal the border and secure it." Thom Tillis

    "Groups like the Islamic State collaborate with drug cartels in Mexico who have clearly shown they’re willing to expand outside the drug trade into human trafficking and potentially even terrorism," Cotton said at a recent town hall-style gathering. “They could infiltrate our defenseless border and attack us right here in places like Arkansas. This is an urgent problem and it’s time we got serious about it, and I’ll be serious about it in the United States Senate.” Tom Cotton

    Alabama Republican Senator Jeff Sessions accused President Obama, Attorney General Holder, and Vice President Biden of “deliberately collapsing” the nation’s immigration law enforcement system. This is pure John Birch Society paranoia:

    "Our law enforcement system is in a state of collapse, and it’s a deliberate plan by the president of the United States, and it’s wrong. And, people need to be aware of it and need to stand up to it and I believe the American people are beginning to do so."

    "I do think that yes, he should face those repercussions, and whether that's removal from office, whether that's impeachment," Ernst said in response.

    Joni Ernst went on to say that as a U.S. Senator it's important not to be "silent" on actions that warranted Obama's impeachment.

    "And unfortunately we have a number of legislators right now that simply let these things happen. They're not speaking up against these actions," Ernst said. "They're not speaking out against the president when he oversteps his bounds, when he makes those appointments, when he's appointing czars, when he is producing executive orders in a threat to a Congress that won't do as he wishes. So he has become a dictator."
     
  2. Nyvin
    Offline

    Nyvin Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,657
    Thanks Received:
    657
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,452
    I'm amazed how off the polls were, utterly surprised really.
     
  3. Statistikhengst
    Offline

    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    46,267
    Thanks Received:
    11,315
    Trophy Points:
    2,070
    Location:
    deep within the statistical brain!!
    Ratings:
    +23,653
    Complete analysis AFTER the final canvasses are published.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  4. WelfareQueen
    Offline

    WelfareQueen Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2013
    Messages:
    11,209
    Thanks Received:
    5,210
    Trophy Points:
    415
    Location:
    Uranus
    Ratings:
    +10,521
    The canvas data may move things a fraction in either direction. The essential point remains. The pollsters did a horrible job...and were heavily biased against the GOP. Here are the actual numbers.


    I just did an analysis. Every key battleground States were off....most big....and all but one were heavily biased against the GOP.


    Don't let anyone one spin you....The Pollsters screwed up. This is exactly how far off they were.



    KS -11.5 off.

    AR -10.0 off

    VA -9.1 off

    AK -1.3 off

    IA -6.2 off

    CO -1.7 off

    KY -8.2 off

    NC -2.4 off

    GA -4.9 off

    LA -4.5 off

    NH +3.0 off This is the only State that had a GOP polling bias of the key States.


    Of the key States listed....The aggregate polling bias was -5.4% against the GOP.

    A huge failure and will need to be explained.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  5. Nyvin
    Offline

    Nyvin Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,657
    Thanks Received:
    657
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,452
    I actually agree with WelfareQueen....*gasp*
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  6. Statistikhengst
    Offline

    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    46,267
    Thanks Received:
    11,315
    Trophy Points:
    2,070
    Location:
    deep within the statistical brain!!
    Ratings:
    +23,653

    I wait until the final canvasses in order to get completely exact stats. I am a stickler for things being numerically perfect.

    Probably has to do with my name....

    :D
     
  7. Statistikhengst
    Offline

    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    46,267
    Thanks Received:
    11,315
    Trophy Points:
    2,070
    Location:
    deep within the statistical brain!!
    Ratings:
    +23,653
    Of course, we are still waiting for absentee ballots from Coridan IV and the outer colonies of Beta Eri Epsidon and once they are in, then we DEMS have this one in the bag!!!!

    :rofl:
     
  8. HenryBHough
    Offline

    HenryBHough Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2011
    Messages:
    23,707
    Thanks Received:
    4,037
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    Oak Grove, Massachusetts
    Ratings:
    +13,094
    Polling is an inexact exercise.

    Especially when enough registered voters start filling pollsters with shit to the extent that their baby blues turn brown.

    Yes, there was one hell of a lot of intentional misleading.
     
  9. Nyvin
    Offline

    Nyvin Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,657
    Thanks Received:
    657
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,452
    I'm skeptical if there was intentional misleading, just like there wasn't in 2012 when the bias was the other way.

    I'd say the problem lies more with the polling firms themselves. Either there's some internal conformity problem where the media wants to portray a "close election" and the polling firms get intimidated to stand out and they all go along with the story showing an election closer then it is, or political polling in general just isn't up to speed in US for the modern age (cell phones, much lower response rates then a few decades ago, etc)
     
  10. Nyvin
    Offline

    Nyvin Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,657
    Thanks Received:
    657
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,452
    Geez, looking over these numbers the polls look like they were WAAAY off...Iowa polling for Senate was downright terrible, same with Kentucky and Arkansas. The Virginia race was polled really bad too.

    I don't think I've ever seen polling this bad, what a failure
     

Share This Page

Search tags for this page
2014 control of the senate site
,
battle for the us senate
,
la susa oak creek
,
senatorialstatistic
,

who will angus king caucus with