2011 GDP Q-1 est. 1.8%-2.0%

Trajan

conscientia mille testes
Jun 17, 2010
29,048
5,463
48
The Bay Area Soviet
well, they didn't say 'unexpectedly' , but then again thats an AP favorite.

1.8-2.0....hell 2.5%:doubt:



GDP Grows by 1.8 Percent in First Quarter

Advance estimate slightly lower than forecast.

By Katy O'Donnell
April 28, 2011 | 8:37 a.m.
Updated: April 28, 2011 | 8:42 a.m.

Real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, slightly less than forecast.

Economists expected slow growth due to rising gas prices and winter weather. The median Bloomberg News estimate was a 2 percent annual pace. In the fourth quarter of 2010, real GDP increased 3.1 percent (annualized).

NationalJournal.com - GDP Grows by 1.8 Percent in First Quarter - Thursday, April 28, 2011



more detailed analysis here.

Economy in U.S. Grew 1.8% in First Quarter, Less Than Forecast - Bloomberg
 
The STAGFLATION is Heeerrrrrrrrreeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!

In related news, WalMart announced that its customers are RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.


Wal-Mart's core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried, CEO Mike Duke said Wednesday.

"We're seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure," Duke said at an event in New York. "There's no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact."

Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.

Lately, they're "running out of money" at a faster clip, he said...


Wal-Mart shoppers running out of money - Apr. 27, 2011


So where does this leave us?

- Interest rates are so low that raising them to combat inflation will send the economy into a recession.
- The Debt is so high that increasing Spending will just further trash the dollar and lead to more inflation.
- The remaining option is to CUT SPENDING, TAXES AND REGULATION AND QUIT STRANGLING THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

The last option includes the obvious and necessary cessation of Obama's WAR ON DOMESTIC OIL.
 
Last edited:
6a00e5501bb44a883301156f29efcd970c-800wi
 
The estimate for the rest of the year is pegged at 3%. Ain't gonna happen IMHO if the price of food and gas doesn't go down. Plus, housing hasn't hit bottom yet, has it?
 
We are firmly in the grasp of a double dip recession. 1099 workers & small business owners who can't collect their debt are suffering the worst. There is no relief for them. Stimulus tax credits & unemployment does not apply to these folks. They are just screwed.

We need a Bush stimulus where everyone gets money, not just certain political favorite groups. If the Fed is printing free money it should go to the citizens first. After all it it the citizens who will have to pay it back. Government employees & contractors should not get the free money first.
 
There is no more FREE MONEY at this point. Our currency has been trashed to the point where printing more just results in inflation.

The way to get more money into workers and small business pockets is to CUT TAXES.
 
There is no more FREE MONEY at this point. Our currency has been trashed to the point where printing more just results in inflation.

The way to get more money into workers and small business pockets is to CUT TAXES.

If small business is not turning a profit then tax cuts are not helping them. We need a fast acting stimulus now. Handing out cash to everyone evenly is the fastest stimulus there is. If bureaucrats get involved you will never see a dime. If we took the $1.5 Trillion deficit money that has to be printed every year & divided it among our 300 million citizens it would be $5,000 a year each. There would be no recession or depression if that happened. Tax revenues would skyrocket.

Paying people unemployment is paying them not to work. Tax cuts only helps those who are not hurting because they are already earning enough to pay taxes. Cash to everyone is fair, helps the ones who fall through the cracks & does not reward bad behavior. It will increase tax revenue faster than anything.
 
Last edited:
Disappointing number but maybe not as bad as it looks. It appears that a decline in government spending was the primary cause as total government spending declined 8%. Also hurting was a decline in real estate spending. Net exports was also a drag. However personal consumption was fine and business investment was pretty good.
 
well, they didn't say 'unexpectedly' , but then again thats an AP favorite.
They usually save that for jobless claims:
U.S. Stock Futures Extend Drop After GDP, Jobless Claims Reports - Businessweek
U.S. stock-index futures extended losses after government reports showed the economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter and jobless claims unexpectedly increased.
I would guess that the word "unexpectedly" is used to convey some sort of sympathy on the part of the reporter?

Whereas "forecast" implies that smart people are crunching the numbers and giving it an educated guess. Just like all weathermen are called "Meteorologists" to lend credence to their guessing game.

Fuck I don't know! :lol:
 
Putt putt putt...

we had a spirited discussion 2 months ago,In feb. where in I said I would sit back, watch and stay relatively silent due to the 200k jobs plateau being broken, it was broken again in march...my point was until I see it start to rev up and stay over 200k ( which I said at the ime to was anemic in this downturn) I was not getting on any recovery bandwagon, any takers for April?

Another article I saw today said first time claims were back up and, well, how thinks we'll run above 200k again? I am surprised there aren't any jobs figures out there for April yet, usually ADP pops a figure about now if I recall correctly. anyone seen one?
 
ah here we go....IBD..

Don't Mean To Be Rude, But The Economy Sucks
Henry Blodget | Apr. 28, 2011, 11:11 AM


snip-
But the reality is that the recovery has never been strong and that many key metrics have recently turned south--despite the fact that the government still has its foot stomped on the stimulus gas.

What metrics have turned south?

Well, first and foremost, GDP growth.

We learned this morning that the economy grew at a pathetic 1.8% in Q1. That's way below the 3%-4% rate that most economists consider normal. And it's miles below the 5%-7% growth that normally follows a recession as sharp and severe as the one we just had.

Meanwhile, the Fed still has interest rates parked at zero, and is still conducting emergency stimulus measures like QE2. And the government's huge stimulus package from 2009 is still driving spending. And we're still spending an absolutely mind-boggling ~$1.5 trillion per year more than we take in (federal deficit)--and piling up humongous debts in the process. And, needless to say, none of this spending--"stimulus" or just normal spending we can't afford--has produced the desired private-sector growth.

1.8% GDP growth in the face of massive stimulus is the equivalent of your car sputtering down the highway at 45 miles per hour while you have the gas pedal floored. You might be glad that the car hasn't broken down completely, but you certainly won't conclude that all is well. And you also might conclude--wisely--that if 45 is the best you can do with the gas pedal floored, things may be about to get a whole lot worse.

And it's not just growth that blows.

In the past few weeks, initial jobless claims have ticked back above 400,000 per week, considerably higher than economists expected. Jobless claims above 400,000 are generally considered a sign of a contracting job market, not a growing one. If the recent jobless claims trends continue, the monthly jobs figures may soon go from "okay, not great" to downright lousy again.

And then there's the unemployment rate. It's still almost 9%! Imagine if, back in 2007, someone had told you that in 2011 the unemployment rate would be 9% and that some folks would consider that encouraging. You'd have dismissed them as a flat-earther or Armageddonist. But here we are.



more at-




Read more: Don't Mean To Be Rude, But The Economy Sucks
 
I think Ben Bernanke's new Federal Reserve Q & A sessions are the modern version of FDR's Great Depression "Fireside Chat". We are really fucked!
 

Forum List

Back
Top