2010, gonna be warm

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Feb 5, 2010.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly soared to +0.72 deg. C in January, 2010. This is the warmest January in the 32-year satellite-based data record.

    The tropics and Northern and Southern Hemispheres were all well above normal, especially the tropics where El Nino conditions persist. Note the global-average warmth is approaching the warmth reached during the 1997-98 El Nino, which peaked in February of 1998.

    This record warmth will seem strange to those who have experienced an unusually cold winter. While I have not checked into this, my first guess is that the atmospheric general circulation this winter has become unusually land-locked, allowing cold air masses to intensify over the major Northern Hemispheric land masses more than usual. Note this ALSO means that not as much cold air is flowing over and cooling the ocean surface compared to normal. Nevertheless, we will double check our calculations to make sure we have not make some sort of Y2.01K error (insert smiley). I will also check the AMSR-E sea surface temperatures, which have also been running unusually warm.

    Of course this has nothing to do with global warming, nothing at all:lol:
     
  2. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    That settle it, I'm moving to the troposphere! Honey, pack our bags!

    (Just copy my reply wherever else you decide to post this, Warmer)
     
  3. concept
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    concept Evil Mongering

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  4. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Global warming is real because we only report where temperatures increase.
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Yes, your SUV is melting the ice caps -- on Pluto
     
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  6. Navy1960
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    Navy1960 Senior Member

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    A significant El Niño persisted throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2010 (Fig.
    1). Although sea surface temperature (SST) departures in the Niño-3.4 region decreased to +1.2°C in late
    January, SSTs continued to be sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection (Figs. 2 and 3). Over
    the last several months, a series of oceanic Kelvin waves contributed to the build-up of heat content
    anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The latest Kelvin wave was associated with
    temperature departures exceeding +2°C down to 150m depth across the eastern half of the equatorial
    Pacific (Fig. 5). Equatorial convection over the central Pacific remained enhanced during the month,
    while convection over Indonesia exhibited considerable week-to-week variability. While the low-level
    winds have been variable, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies generally prevailed
    during January. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong and mature El
    Niño episode

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

    El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.
    NOAA El Nio: Research, Forecasts and Observations

    Guess that about sums it up.
     
  7. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    "Note this ALSO means that not as much cold air is flowing over and cooling the ocean surface compared to normal"

    As I've stated many times in my peer reviewed posts, the twin forces of GlobalCoolerWarmering and GlobalWarmerCoolering are how we scientifically settle the argument on how it is that it gets cooler or warmer as it get warmer or cooler respectively and not necessarily in that order.
     
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  8. Zoom-boing
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    Zoom-boing Gold Member

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    A Nor-easter is barreling up the east coast as I type this. 20" expected in some areas, blizzard conditions along the Jersey Shore.

    Ma, turn on the A/C will ya?
     
  9. Charles Stucker
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    Charles Stucker Senior Member

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    The low temperatures you are currently experiencing are an anomaly and will not persist for more than a few months before GoreBull warming will resume in March or April with an expected warm phase to last several months after that, to August or September at the least.
    Do not be alarmed, the GoreBull warming experts assure you they know better, so stop driving your car to prevent a catastrophe.
     
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  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Quite correct. Except that this is a moderate El Nino and it may well exceed the 1998 very strong El Nino.

    And we had a strong and persistant La Nina in 2007 and 2008, and still had years that ranked in the top ten for warmth.
     

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