2010 Correction Election Has Started

[Sinatra]

Momentum against the Democrats and favoring Republicans is fully underway now as we head into a pivotal midterm election cycle.

A poll released just an hour ago shows Democrats now trailing Republicans by nearly 10 points in the generic ballot. When Obama took the oath of office, Democrats enjoyed a seven point lead in the same ballot - indicating nearly a 17 point shift toward the Republican side currently vs a little less than one year ago.

It is the GOP favorability among Independent voters that perhaps is most remarkable - with Republicans enjoying a 48% to 17% margin over their Democrats in the generic ballot. If such figures hold by the time the upcomingNovember elections are held, 2010 will prove among the greatest correction elections in modern history.



Date
Dem
GOP

01-03-10
35%
44%

12-27-09
38%
43%

12-20-09
36%
44%

12-13-09
37%
44%

12-06-09
39%
43%

11-29-09
37%
44%

11-22-09
37%
44%

11-15-09
38%
44%

11-08-09
37%
43%

11-01-09
38%
42%




Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[theDoctorisIn]

"Generic" congressional polling means nothing at all. By all means, if it makes you feel better about yourself, believe it. If you want to convince other people (or even just yourself) that republicans are going to take back congress, show me actual polling on actual candidates who are up for re-election.

No one votes genericly.

 

[Sinatra]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Sinatra]

Swing states may be on the move


The voter sentiments that put Democrats on top in 2008 could turn against the party in November's midterm. Obama's proposals for healthcare, the economy and immigration could deepen divisions.

...That personal assessment may be part of the reason Reid faces a tough reelection fight in November despite 27 years in Congress. But other aspects of Reid's challenge raise far broader political questions -- questions that reach all the way to President Obama and Democrats in general:

As they seek to retain control of Congress, Democrats are finding that voter sentiments that gave the party its victory margins here and in other swing states in 2008 could turn against them for 2010.


Swing states may be on the move - latimes.com

 

[Polk]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

 

[Mr. Peepers]

Um, haven't you learned? Polls mean absolutely nothing except they asked a random group of people a question. I know I sure as hell have never been polled for anything...

 

[rightwinger]

Momentum against the Democrats and favoring Republicans is fully underway now as we head into a pivotal midterm election cycle.

A poll released just an hour ago shows Democrats now trailing Republicans by nearly 10 points in the generic ballot. When Obama took the oath of office, Democrats enjoyed a seven point lead in the same ballot - indicating nearly a 17 point shift toward the Republican side currently vs a little less than one year ago.

It is the GOP favorability among Independent voters that perhaps is most remarkable - with Republicans enjoying a 48% to 17% margin over their Democrats in the generic ballot. If such figures hold by the time the upcomingNovember elections are held, 2010 will prove among the greatest correction elections in modern history.



Date
Dem
GOP

01-03-10
35%
44%

12-27-09
38%
43%

12-20-09
36%
44%

12-13-09
37%
44%

12-06-09
39%
43%

11-29-09
37%
44%

11-22-09
37%
44%

11-15-09
38%
44%

11-08-09
37%
43%

11-01-09
38%
42%




Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™

Whew!

You had me worried until I saw it was a Rassmussen poll

 

[Sinatra]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Great graphic!

Both Republicans and Independents are polling UP, while Democrats clearly moving DOWN.

As stated, the 2010 Correction Election has started!!!!

 

[Article 15]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

 

[Sinatra]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

Actually not true if doing a more apples-to-apples polling comparison. "All Adults" vs "Registered and/or Likely Voters". Rasmussen is in line with other polls when similar polling comparisons are done. And the trend is clear - Democrats are in decline, Republicans are gaining in numbers, and the Independents remain the crucial deciding factor.

Thanks for the input though!


Pollster.com: National Party Identification (REGISTERED & LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

 

[Article 15]

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

Actually not true if doing a more apples-to-apples polling comparison. "All Adults" vs "Registered and/or Likely Voters". Rasmussen is in line with other polls when similar polling comparisons are done. And the trend is clear - Democrats are in decline, Republicans are gaining in numbers, and the Independents remain the crucial deciding factor.

Thanks for the input though!


Pollster.com: National Party Identification (REGISTERED & LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

There aren't any Rassmussen polls in your link ...

And Sinatra ... the dems have the White House, large majorities in both houses, and have been in a politcal fight all year. Of course their numbers will be going down ... after last years election that's pretty much the only direction they could take. The Republicans will pick up 20 something seats MAYBE in the low 30's in the House and a handful of seats in the Senate which is pretty much par for the course in mid term elections when one party has such a large majority.

 

[Sinatra]

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

Actually not true if doing a more apples-to-apples polling comparison. "All Adults" vs "Registered and/or Likely Voters". Rasmussen is in line with other polls when similar polling comparisons are done. And the trend is clear - Democrats are in decline, Republicans are gaining in numbers, and the Independents remain the crucial deciding factor.

Thanks for the input though!


Pollster.com: National Party Identification (REGISTERED & LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

There aren't any Rassmussen polls in your link ...

And Sinatra ... the dems have the White House, large majorities in both houses, and have been in a politcal fight all year. Of course their numbers will be going down ... after last years election that's pretty much the only direction they could take. The Republicans will pick up 20 something seats MAYBE in the low 30's in the House and a handful of seats in the Senate which is pretty much par for the course in mid term elections when one party has such a large majority.

A correction election does not necessitate taking back Congress.

At present, we are estimating an approximate net gain for Republicans of between 34 -38 seats in the House - and there WILL be a strong move to remove Pelosi from her Speaker position that will have considerable support from a number of Democrats (and quiet but critical support from within the White House) The House Democrats will shift to a more moderate collective position.

In the Senate we predict a net pick up for Republican of 2-3, ensuring we break the current fillibuster-proof Democrat controlled Senate. And like many of the House Democrats, the Senate Dems will also shift to a far more moderate stance than the current leadership is directing.


From there, it's on to 2012...

 

[Annie]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Great graphic!

Both Republicans and Independents are polling UP, while Democrats clearly moving DOWN.

As stated, the 2010 Correction Election has started!!!!

and we won't even comment on 'likely voters.'

 

[Modbert]

A correction election does not necessitate taking back Congress.

At present, we are estimating an approximate net gain for Republicans of between 34 -38 seats in the House - and there WILL be a strong move to remove Pelosi from her Speaker position that will have considerable support from a number of Democrats (and quiet but critical support from within the White House) The House Democrats will shift to a more moderate collective position.

In the Senate we predict a net pick up for Republican of 2-3, ensuring we break the current fillibuster-proof Democrat controlled Senate. And like many of the House Democrats, the Senate Dems will also shift to a far more moderate stance than the current leadership is directing.


From there, it's on to 2012...

Who the hell is we? You have nothing to do with it.

 

[Article 15]

Actually not true if doing a more apples-to-apples polling comparison. "All Adults" vs "Registered and/or Likely Voters". Rasmussen is in line with other polls when similar polling comparisons are done. And the trend is clear - Democrats are in decline, Republicans are gaining in numbers, and the Independents remain the crucial deciding factor.

Thanks for the input though!


Pollster.com: National Party Identification (REGISTERED & LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

There aren't any Rassmussen polls in your link ...

And Sinatra ... the dems have the White House, large majorities in both houses, and have been in a politcal fight all year. Of course their numbers will be going down ... after last years election that's pretty much the only direction they could take. The Republicans will pick up 20 something seats MAYBE in the low 30's in the House and a handful of seats in the Senate which is pretty much par for the course in mid term elections when one party has such a large majority.

A correction election does not necessitate taking back Congress.

At present, we are estimating an approximate net gain for Republicans of between 34 -38 seats in the House - and there WILL be a strong move to remove Pelosi from her Speaker position that will have considerable support from a number of Democrats (and quiet but critical support from within the White House) The House Democrats will shift to a more moderate collective position.

In the Senate we predict a net pick up for Republican of 2-3, ensuring we break the current fillibuster-proof Democrat controlled Senate. And like many of the House Democrats, the Senate Dems will also shift to a far more moderate stance than the current leadership is directing.


From there, it's on to 2012...

Ok ... so you and I pretty much agree on what is going to happen in November. Great.

Now how about providing a link that actually shows Rassmussen polls to prove the point you were originally trying to make to me ....

 

[Sinatra]

A correction election does not necessitate taking back Congress.

At present, we are estimating an approximate net gain for Republicans of between 34 -38 seats in the House - and there WILL be a strong move to remove Pelosi from her Speaker position that will have considerable support from a number of Democrats (and quiet but critical support from within the White House) The House Democrats will shift to a more moderate collective position.

In the Senate we predict a net pick up for Republican of 2-3, ensuring we break the current fillibuster-proof Democrat controlled Senate. And like many of the House Democrats, the Senate Dems will also shift to a far more moderate stance than the current leadership is directing.


From there, it's on to 2012...

Who the hell is we? You have nothing to do with it.

 

[Xenophon]

In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.

Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.


Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

Just a point of interest, I saw where Rassmussen was asked about his polls, his answer was quite interesting.

He was correct in 2006, 2008 and only polls registered voters and gets real trends, he had the Dems pulling ahead in 2005 before anyone.

Dems loved him then, because it favored them.

Now the trends show the dems losing and he's an 'outler' and other stuff.

Face it, teh dems are as big a bunch of Fuckups as the GoP and way over played their hand last year.

They are going to get destroyed in the election, it will be 2006 in reverse.

 

[Truthmatters]

Poll: Public Option in Health Care Backed by American Majority

 

[Sinatra]

Down from it's peak, but still miles ahead of the Republicans.
Pollster.com: National Party Identification (ALL ADULTS)

Notice that Rassmussen polls are about a +10 in republican self identification compared to the rest of the polls.

Just a point of interest, I saw where Rassmussen was asked about his polls, his answer was quite interesting.

He was correct in 2006, 2008 and only polls registered voters and gets real trends, he had the Dems pulling ahead in 2005 before anyone.

Dems loved him then, because it favored them.

Now the trends show the dems losing and he's an 'outler' and other stuff.

Face it, teh dems are as big a bunch of Fuckups as the GoP and way over played their hand last year.

They are going to get destroyed in the election, it will be 2006 in reverse.

Overplayed their hand indeed - and a growing number of Democrat officials are getting quite nervous...

 

[kyzr]

Rasmussen was the most accurate poll before the 2008 election
Rasmussen, the Only Poll that Matters « The Washington Independent

So there is no reason to doubt Rasmussen's accuracy until they miss. There is no way that voters can be happy with the way dems/Obama are running the country.