Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
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- #1
In this Clinton vs. GOP report (published three weeks ago):
http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...-ge-hillary-clinton-vs-gop-field-part-iv.html
you can see that up till now, the state of Oregon had not yet been polled.
The 1st 2016 poll of Oregon just came in, and the results show how formidable Hillary Clinton is in this west coast state:
Oregon Miscellany - Public Policy Polling
-and the .pdf-
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_OR_530.pdf
The bottom line:
Clinton 51
Paul 39
margin: Clinton +12
Clinton 51
Huckabee 39
margin: Clinton +12
Clinton 52
Cruz 37
margin: Clinton +15
Clinton 51
Bush, Jeb 36
margin: Clinton +15
Clinton 51
Christie 34
margin: Clinton +17
(12 * 2) + (15 * 2) + 17 = 14.2
So, it's an average of Clinton +14.2 in Oregon.
And not even one GOP challenger gets to 40%, while Hillary is over 50% in all five matchups.
Why is this important?
Well, it's only one poll and many more are sure to follow, but the tendency in Oregon polling has been to have a bias STRONGLY to the Right, not to the Left.
Here the polling of Oregon from 2012:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=74
Obama won Oregon in 2012 by +12.09%.
Every poll in 2012 was to the right of that actual result and the average of the final polls (within the last 7 days) was Obama +6.00, exactly 1/2 of his actual margin. Even the exit poll of Oregon, which showed Obama +7.5, was off 4 points to the right on a night when the majority of the exits polls were absolutely spot-on.
So, Oregon was one of the states were President Obama vastly outperformed the end polling average. And PPP (D), was six points to the RIGHT, at Obama +6 in it's end poll. So much for claiming that PPP (D) has a liberal bias.
In 2008, the average for Oregon in the end-polling was: Obama +15.57
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12
Obama won Oregon in 2008 by +16.35%.
So, the 2008 polling was ever so slightly off to the Right, but closer than in 2012.
This means that most likely Hillary Clinton is actually doing better in Oregon than the PPP (D) poll is showing, not worst.
This is important because in years where the election has truly been close, absolutely in line with the principle of "a rising tide lifts all boats", then polling in Oregon has been extremely close and the state could not be called immediately.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...emExbW96SW1tZlNMdktyMmYweEE&usp=sharing#gid=1
In both 1992 and 1996, CNN called Oregon for Bill Clinton at 11:00 PM EDT (poll closing time). Bill Clinton easily won both elections nationally.
In the hotly contested 2000 GE, it took 3 days for CNN to call Oregon for Al Gore. It was first called on November 10, 2000.
In 2004, CNN called Oregon for John Kerry at 12:40 am, 1 hour and 40 minutes after poll closing time.
In 2008, CNN called Oregon for Barack Obama at 11:00 PM EDT (poll closing time).
In 2012, CNN called Oregon for Barack Obama at 11:15 PM EDT, 15 minutes after the polls closed. FOX called Oregon for Obama at pretty much the same time.
Oregon is now a 7-for-7 Democratic state, having gone for the Democratic candidate in every GE since 1988:
The last Republican to win this state was Ronald Reagan, in his 1984 landslide re-election.
So, not too many are expecting Oregon to go RED in presidential politics, although pundits and strategists like Karl Rove have tried more than once to make Oregon "look" RED.
The problem is, with such margins, if Oregon is not even close to being competitive, since it is traditionally the "weakest" of the four blue West Coast/Pacific states, after Hawaii, California and Washington State, then the logical assumption is that those states are also also quite safe D.
Here is a graphic to prove the point (you will need to enlarge it):
(2012 is not in that graphic yet, that analysis came out in 2011, but the partisan rankings for these four states go in the same order as they did in 2012: HA, CA, WA, then OR).
Should polling begin to show that a state like Oregon (the only state in the Union to go balloting by mail) becoming extremely competitive, then that would a very bad sign for the DEMS and a very good sign for the GOP.
But these kind of current polling values show Hillary Clinton on par with Obama's 2008 performance in Oregon.
Again, this is only one poll, but Oregon is one of the states I love to watch, just like Karl Rove does, again because of the adage "a rising tide lifts all boats".
More polling information on Oregon as it comes out....
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BTW, if you want to see how ALL of the pollsters did in 2012:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?
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