15K dow & 2K S&P coming up?

william the wie

Gold Member
Nov 18, 2009
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Just wondering. The facts being quoted by the bulls are:

The Wilshire 5000 is in record territory.

The best of the worst argument is being dragged out again about the US vs. the EU and the Far East.

A Dow theory buy signal of the transports hitting a new high has happened.

Just thought the response to this idea would be fun to watch.
 
hummmm, question; the ecb has raised rates today, they appear to be set on pushing back on cheap money combating what they think is an inflationary trend, so, does some of the money which would have worked there, head to the dow?
 
What happens after QE2 is the trillion dollar question.

In the bulls' favour is that retail has been on the sideline the whole way up. There is a massive amount of money on the sidelines. But I'm not convinced yet that it will come off the sidelines after people were burned badly by the market over the past decade.
 
What happens after QE2 is the trillion dollar question.

In the bulls' favour is that retail has been on the sideline the whole way up. There is a massive amount of money on the sidelines. But I'm not convinced yet that it will come off the sidelines after people were burned badly by the market over the past decade.

Is it real money or the fake stuff again ?
 
What happens after QE2 is the trillion dollar question.

In the bulls' favour is that retail has been on the sideline the whole way up. There is a massive amount of money on the sidelines. But I'm not convinced yet that it will come off the sidelines after people were burned badly by the market over the past decade.

QE is dead, come July. As a mechanism its taken us as far as it can. IF oil is north of , well where it is today at $110, the pain will be palpable.
 
As the dollar gets weaker people will trade them in for stocks. It doesn't mean the economy is on any real recovery, it just means the dollar is falling like a brick and inflation is rising.
 
As the dollar gets weaker people will trade them in for stocks. It doesn't mean the economy is on any real recovery, it just means the dollar is falling like a brick and inflation is rising.
I agree that is part of the story but the rapidly aging population of the Far East and EU has already caused deflation in Japan and that deflation will also be seen in all of northern and eastern Eurasia in the not too distant future is the rest of the story. It won't just be Americans buying American stocks.
 
What happens after QE2 is the trillion dollar question.

In the bulls' favour is that retail has been on the sideline the whole way up. There is a massive amount of money on the sidelines. But I'm not convinced yet that it will come off the sidelines after people were burned badly by the market over the past decade.

QE is dead, come July. As a mechanism its taken us as far as it can. IF oil is north of , well where it is today at $110, the pain will be palpable.

Hard to say.

I'm not planning on having much risk exposure come the end of June, but the end of QE2 will effectively end the easing cycle of the Fed. No doubt it has raised asset prices, but generally, stocks don't collapse at the end of the easing cycle. They usually collapse at the end of the tightening cycle. However, I acknowledge that this time really is different, and stocks might behave differently.

Also, as oil marches to $120 and higher, QE2 has also affected oil prices. If the end of QE2 ends the relentless march upwards of risk assets, I would also expect it to affect the price of oil and other commodities.
 
The market letter I subscribe to says the US entered a primary bull market in March 2009 that remains in effect. With the stimulus, low interest rates and QE, that should hold us up for 3 years. Then we find out if the economy got back on sound enough legs to walk on its own. Writer expected a couple of decent corrections in 2011, one could come after QE 2 ends in June.

But there is a lot of money in money market accounts not earning anything (I have plenty on the sidelines, some in, about 1/3 in the market).
 
 Wall street is totally disconnected from main street. There has been no recovery in the real economy. Further decline in the economy is being artificially stopped by the Federal Gov't but it can't keep this up forever. There are no real jobs being created compared to the millions lost. How can a retail stock increase on Wall Street when there are no shoppers on Main Street is beyond my comprehension. A total disconnect. This happened during the Great Depression.

Here an interesting article: Market Crash 2011: It will hit by Christmas Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

I am heavy in a silver EFT, which is doing quite well, I will use the EFT (DOG) when the bears come out.
 
I agree,and as always, nothing is for free, IF we had really been winding down all of the debt. and toxci trash out there and had a control of say the housing bubble which is still out there like a lurking beast, it would be bad be as bad, instead we have played the old hide the salami game, the pols want to be reelected and imho only some of them appear to be serious, we have to wind it back and out, sometime, better under some control then, minus any. The market will carry it part of the burden too.
 
Just wondering. The facts being quoted by the bulls are:

The Wilshire 5000 is in record territory.

The best of the worst argument is being dragged out again about the US vs. the EU and the Far East.

A Dow theory buy signal of the transports hitting a new high has happened.

Just thought the response to this idea would be fun to watch.


All that funny money the fed has been pumping out has to go somewhere.
 

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