william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
- 2,402
- 280
This run is basically a response to a set of reasonable implicit assumptions that have an unreasonable timeline:
That personal and corporate tax reform will happen and the border adjustment tax will apply only to jobs that have been outsourced from the US in order to minimize the risk of a trade war plus it and the downsizing of the IRS will happen this year. That is a six point conjoint bet on congress acting more or less rationally.
That both repeal and replace and Tax reform can be placed on the must pass debt ceiling bill this year.
That the Ds will toe the line and any delays in raising the debt ceiling will not cause blue wall bond defaults. Since effectively the entire Blue Wall is already in one or more forms of non-bond defaults, mostly pension and vendor credit defaults.
That internal tax flight will not reach critical mass as a result of reform.
I do not think that all of the above is possible and that will result in high volatility.
That personal and corporate tax reform will happen and the border adjustment tax will apply only to jobs that have been outsourced from the US in order to minimize the risk of a trade war plus it and the downsizing of the IRS will happen this year. That is a six point conjoint bet on congress acting more or less rationally.
That both repeal and replace and Tax reform can be placed on the must pass debt ceiling bill this year.
That the Ds will toe the line and any delays in raising the debt ceiling will not cause blue wall bond defaults. Since effectively the entire Blue Wall is already in one or more forms of non-bond defaults, mostly pension and vendor credit defaults.
That internal tax flight will not reach critical mass as a result of reform.
I do not think that all of the above is possible and that will result in high volatility.
