10/25/08 Pollls

Discussion in 'Congress' started by DavidS, Oct 25, 2008.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Rasmussen - Obama +8
    Gallup - Obama +8
    Zogby - Obama +9
    Hotline/FD - Obama +8
    Research 2000 - Obama +12

    Average - 9

    More to come later
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2008
  2. WhiteLion
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    WhiteLion WMS.

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  3. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    McCain is going to get beaten by a better candidate.

    The level of denial on the Republican side is amazing.
     
  4. Larkinn
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    Larkinn Senior Member

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    Todays polls:

    I think its been a long time since any poll showed a national lead for McCain...

    [​IMG]
     
  5. CA95380
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    CA95380 USMB Member

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    I was asked if I would say the same thing. So here ya go, Elvis. http://www.usmessageboard.com/elections-2008/62247-call-me-crazy.html#post860355 I am saying the exact same thing.

    I think polls in general are a bunch of garbage. :)
     
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  6. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    They're not. You don't get 50 different results with 50 different polls. The idea isn't to get a result from a poll, the idea is to get an idea of what some people in the country think about this or that. Then you go off and look at another poll, and another. When you ask people today, what the most important issue is to them, and 20 of them answer with 10 different things, then ok you have a point. When 20 of them answer with the same answer, you're getting somewhere. I like polls that show a large number of likely voters over a 3-day period. That's why I like Rasmussen, which has been an in-betweener. It hasn't shown Obama up by double digits and it hasn't shown Obama in the low single digits.

    I still can't get that Pew research poll out of my head. 2300 likely voters is a good sample size. It was done over a 3-day period and Pew is very well respected. To show Obama on October 16th, up by 14 points is very interesting. It sticks out at me as something to pay attention to. I've read their data and it's consistent with all of the other polls.

    In contrast, the AP Poll recently conducted, had a tiny sample size, only 800 likely voters and they completely underestimated the youth turnout. It also showed almost no independents, which was very concerning. TIPP also does a very small sample size. I have not looked at their data, yet. I should. It's interesting how the difference between TIPP and Zogby is about 300 likely voters, yet their results are different by 5 points. I don't like Zogby since their 2004 disaster. They're interesting and I put them in the back of my mind.

    If a poll, with a 3-day rolling average, with 2000-3000 likely voters that counts Republicans, Democrats and Independents about equally, showed me a race tightening, well then it's time to get a little concerned. I don't think Obama is going to win North Carolina, Nevada New Hampshire, Colorado, Indiana, Florida or Missouri. I do think Obama will win Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico and Ohio. I think the race will be much tighter than anyone thinks right now. About 4 or 5 points.

    I think McCain could declare that no one pays income tax and that Sarah Palin will do playboy, and Obama would still win. People are very excited about Obama. People are somewhat excited about Palin. I do not think Palin has a future outside of Governer of Alaska, though. I think the Democrats are already looking at 2010 in Alaska and if they defeat her in Alaska, they'll destroy her future political career and stave off any potential contenders for 2012. Romney vs. Obama is how I see 2012 and that won't even be close. But what's interesting... what's very interesting is by that time, Joe Biden will be 73 years old and that's too old to run, I think. I think 2016 we could be looking at 2008 all over again, with no incumbents. Unless something happens between now and then and Obama replaces Biden with a new VP.

    I think, as long as the Democrats create jobs and get this economy in order, and make progress with the middle east, stave off any potential future conflict with China over Taiwann, could be in control of Washington for a very long time.
     
  7. xsited1
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    xsited1 Agent P

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    It's a forgone conclusion that Obama will win. I wonder if he can screw up the economy more than Bush?
     
  8. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    I don't think Jimmy Carter could screw up the economy more than Bush. Here's how the conversation is going to go for the next 4 years if there isn't a terrorist attack on US soil or a massive loss of life of US Soldiers in Iraq:

    The right wing is laying the foundation that in mid-late 2009, the recession should be over with. And if it, technically is, the economy should be rebounding more than it is today. If the GDP isn't higher than China's GDP, then the Right Wing media will go on and on about Reagan and how if we had elected McCain the economy would be recovering faster than it is now and there would be more jobs created under McCain rather than Obama. The right wing will go on and on about how there's a dangerous country out there and Obama is too busy playing basketball to worry about it. This will be the conversation in 2009. The left wing media will spin the economy is growing as fast as it can and will point to the first year under the Clinton administration where we had almost no economic growth whatsoever. 2010 will have the same arguments. If, in the Autumn of 2010, the economy has rebounded and is growing, the Democrats will win more House and Senate seats and more governer's seats and Obama will win re-election in 2012. If it is not growing, or is actually worse than it was, Republicans will take back the house and Senate and we'll have deadlock for 2 years and they'll boot Obama out of there. They'll put someone who is a christian centrist with social values as our president in 2012. If it's growing slowly, and the signs are pointing to a recovery, the Democrats will lose some seats, and maybe the Senate. Obama will probably win re-election.

    If the Republicans lose in 2018, the Republican Party will self destruct and they will boot the Christian fundamentalists out of there and the Republican Party will adopt a centrist attitude.

    The one caveat in all of this is terrorism. If Islamic terrorists strike this country again, or we enter a new war with a foreign country, all bets are off. We also have to figure out what's going on with Iran. There are a lot of issues confronting the next President... I do not envy him.
     
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  9. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    you never explained how Hillary won New Hampshire.
     
  10. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    She cried. Remember?
     

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