07/31 McClatchy-Marist poll: Clinton well ahead of GOP, 3-way race would be disaster for GOP

[Statistikhengst]

Trump as Independent Gives New Meaning to Name Billary Home of the Marist Poll Pebbles and Pundits

-and-

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us150722/2016July/Complete July 2015 McClatchy_Marist Poll_2016_Tables.pdf

1,249 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8, among them 964 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
Among them: 345 RV and R-leaning RV, MoE = +/-5.3, 450 DRV and D-leaning RV, MoE = +/-4.8

Directly from the Marist .pdf:

This makes Marist / McClatchy the very first pollster to put out 17 matchups all at once: Hillary vs. each and every one of the 17 declared GOP candidates.

The margins:

vs. Rubio, Paul: Clinton +5
vs. Bush (Jeb!): Clinton +6
vs. Walker, Perry: Clinton +7
vs. Huckabee, Cruz: Clinton +9
vs. Christie, Kasich, Carson: Clinton +10
vs. Santorum: Clinton +12
vs. Pataki: Clinton +13
vs. Trump, Jindal: Clinton +16
vs. Graham: Clinton +17
vs. Fiorina: Clinton +18
vs. Gilmore: Clinton +21

So, Hillary Clinton's margins over the GOP field range from +5 to +21.
Currently, the guy who is leading the GOP pack in nomination polling, Donald Trump, is losing to Hillary in this poll by 16 points.

Every single one of those margins is larger than Obama's 2012 margin (+3.86% over Romney) and in 14 of 17 matchups, her margin is also larger than Obama's 2008 margin (+7.26% over McCain)

In a hypothetical three way race:

Clinton (D) 44 / Bush (R) 29 / Trump (I) 20

That three-way race has this important internal:

While Clinton retains her support among her Democratic base in a three-way race, Bush’s support among Republicans freefalls from 92% to 63%, a 29 point difference. Trump garners 28% of the GOP vote. Among independents nationally, Clinton’s 6 point edge over Bush, 48% to 42%, more than doubles to 13 points with Trump in the race. - See more at: Trump as Independent Gives New Meaning to Name Billary Home of the Marist Poll Pebbles and Pundits

Now, the "Adults" polling screen is the least restrictive of all of the screens. That being said, Marist has a good track record. And for the matchups, it's used the RV screen.

In 2012, Marist's end polls were from 8 battleground states, it got all of the calls right, and still had a mathematical bias of 2 points to the Right, not the Left.

You can see that information here:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond The moment of truth how did the pollsters do

More data at the poll and the tables.

I just want to note that Obama never sported these kinds of margins against any of the GOP candidates in 2011, at this corresponding time of year.

 

[Ernie S.]

It's more likely to come down to a 3rd party race between HRC, Bernie Sanders and the GOP nominee.
In that case, hillary and Bernie share the spotlight with George McGovern.

 

[Ernie S.]

RCP data

Thursday, July 30
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 41, Bush 42 Bush +1
General Election: Walker vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 44, Walker 43 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 48, Trump 36 Clinton +12
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Trump 20, Walker 13, Bush 10, Rubio 6, Huckabee 6, Carson 6, Paul 6, Cruz 5, Kasich 5, Christie 3, Perry 2, Jindal 2, Santorum 1, Fiorina 1, Pataki 1 Trump +7
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Clinton 55, Sanders 17, Biden 13, Webb 1, O'Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +38
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Trump 26, Walker 14, Bush 10, Rubio 5, Huckabee 7, Carson 5, Paul 3, Cruz 7, Kasich 5, Christie 2, Perry 2, Jindal 2, Santorum 2, Fiorina 1, Pataki 1 Trump +12
General Election: Bush vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 43, Bush 42 Biden +1
General Election: Walker vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 43, Walker 43 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 49, Trump 37 Biden +12
General Election: Bush vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Bush 44, Sanders 39 Bush +5
General Election: Walker vs. Sanders Quinnipiac Walker 42, Sanders 37 Walker +5

 

[Ernie S.]

But, hillary will not be the nominee, so once the smoke clears from that, we likely see Biden/Sanders vs Walker/Rubio and a 8 point win for the GOP

 

[Statistikhengst]

I recorded all of that data yesterday, there is also a thread about it, right here in the elections forum.

 

[Statistikhengst]

But, hillary will not be the nominee, so once the smoke clears from that, we likely see Biden/Sanders vs Walker/Rubio and a 8 point win for the GOP

Can I put you down on record as predicting this?

 

[Ernie S.]

Yup

 

[Statistikhengst]

Ok.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Ernie S. is merely woofing.

A third party Trump candidate guarantees a HRC or Sanders win.

 

[Nyvin]

Sanders has already said multiple times he won't run third party.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's more likely to come down to a 3rd party race between HRC, Bernie Sanders and the GOP nominee.

What makes it more likely?

 

[A Perez]

Ernie S. is merely woofing.

A third party Trump candidate guarantees a HRC or Sanders win.

A Trump GOP candidacy guarantees a Hillary victory.

 

[Nyvin]

Bernie says....again....he won't run third party:

Bernie Sanders Won t Run As Independent If He Loses To Hillary Clinton

 

[Vigilante]

MORE GOOD NEWS for the Hildebeasty....LOLOLOL!

CNN Reporter: Clinton Tax Returns Prove ‘Dead Broke’ Comment Untrue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mediaite ^ | Aug. 2, 2015 | Andrew Kirell
Hillary Clinton‘s tax returns will not only set a major obstacle in her campaign to prove herself a Regular Person™ but, according to CNN reporter Jeff Zeleny, they prove her past statements to be completely false. According to her latest tax returns, released by the campaign late this week, the Clintons earned nearly $141 million from 2007 to 2014. And as CNN’s senior Washington correspondent Zeleny told John King on Sunday, such enormous wealth definitively contradicts the candidate’s assertion to Diane Sawyer that she and her husband were “dead broke.”

GOD DAMN, can't this woman EVER tell THE TRUTH....and you scummy DemocRATS want this piece of shit for president...You are ALL BRAIN DEAD, besides having NO ETHICS!!!

 

[JoeB131]

It's more likely to come down to a 3rd party race between HRC, Bernie Sanders and the GOP nominee.
In that case, hillary and Bernie share the spotlight with George McGovern.

Except Bernie has expressed no interest in running as a third party candidate...

But do dream on that something is going to save you guys from your horrible demographics.

 

[JoeB131]

MORE GOOD NEWS for the Hildebeasty....LOLOLOL!

CNN Reporter: Clinton Tax Returns Prove ‘Dead Broke’ Comment

Her reference was to where she and Bill were at in 2000, when they owed 10 million to lawyers for Ken Starr's 70 million dollar panty sniffing investigation.

But that's okay, man, you keep hoping that somehow, you are going to convince people to hate Hillary as much as you do.

How's this for a crazy idea. Instead of telling me why I should vote AGAINST Hillary, tell me why I should vote for one of the passengers on the GOP Clown Car?

 

[LoneLaugher]

Ernie is in the know, folks. He has stated that Clinton won't win he Dem nomination for months now.

It is known as wishful thinking.

 

[Vigilante]

MORE GOOD NEWS for the Hildebeasty....LOLOLOL!

CNN Reporter: Clinton Tax Returns Prove ‘Dead Broke’ Comment

Her reference was to where she and Bill were at in 2000, when they owed 10 million to lawyers for Ken Starr's 70 million dollar panty sniffing investigation.

But that's okay, man, you keep hoping that somehow, you are going to convince people to hate Hillary as much as you do.

How's this for a crazy idea. Instead of telling me why I should vote AGAINST Hillary, tell me why I should vote for one of the passengers on the GOP Clown Car?

No, it wasn't referring to 2000! Do I need to post video, and links to it?