Statistikhengst
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Hillary Clinton and the Republican 2016 hopefuls - The Washington Post
This poll was released today, April 2, 2015.
1003 A, MoE = +/-3.5
I am putting ALOT of information out with this thread.
This thread contains the current polling information, including the female voting statistics, plus a national overview going back 100 years. Please read all of it before commenting.
The WAPO poll before this one was released January 22, 2015.
Hillary was polled against four Republicans in this release and beats all four by large double digit margins. Here the numbers (parentheses indicate values from the poll before):
Hillary Clinton 54 (54)
Jeb Bush 40 (41)
margin: Clinton +14 (+13)
margin shift: Clinton +1
margin among female voters: Clinton +22 (58/36)
Hillary Clinton 55
Marco Rubio 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Rubio was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +26 (59/33)
Hillary Clinton 55
Scott Walker 38
margin: Clinton +17
margin shift: none. Walker was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +27 (60/33)
Hillary Clinton 58
Scott Walker 39
margin: Clinton +19
margin shift: none. Cruz was not polled in January
margin among female voters: Clinton +28 (61/33)
In January, WAPO polled matchups with Hillary against: Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. If I recall correctly, these results came out very shortly before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be running again. This does not mean that matchups against Christie, Rand and Huckabee were not taken this time around. Sometimes, WAPO splits the poll results over two reports. Wait and see. But for now, we only have one matchup that we can compare to January (Bush, Jeb).
So, let's review the margins:
Hillary vs. Bush, Jeb = +14 (+22 among female voters)
Hillary vs. Walker and also vs. Rubio = +17 (+26 and +27, respectively among female voters)
Hillary vs. Cruz = +19 (+28 among female voters)
According to the exit-poll-date from 2012 and 2008, President Obama won in the female vote by +11 in 2012 and by +13 in 2008. Hillary's current margins in the female vote are roughly DOUBLE that. So, it is reasonable to say that Hillary's crushing lead among female voters is a major driver of a very large lead over all GOP comers that is way outside of the MoE.
Average margin (14+17+17+19 / 4) = Clinton +16.75%
Now, let's take a look at the national election results for the last 100 years where the winner won with more than +14% margin in the National Popular vote:
1984: Reagan +18.22% (525 electoral votes)
1972: Nixon +23.15% (520 electoral votes)
1964: Johnson +22.58% (486 electoral votes)
1956: Eisenhower +15.40% (457 electoral votes)
1936: FDR +24.36% (523 electoral votes)
1932: FDR +17.76% (472 electoral votes)
1928: Hoover +17.42% (444 electoral votes)
1924: Coolidge +25.21% (382 electoral votes)
1920: Harding +26.23% (404 electoral votes)
That makes for nine cycles in the last 100 years where the victor had a national popular vote margin of more than +14%. In 8 of those 9 cycles, that victor came in at well over 400 EV, 1924 being the strange exception.
So, if these numbers hold (and that is the big "IF"), then the logical assumption is that Hillary Clinton would easily win with well over 400 EV on election night as well.
Now, this is just one poll, as I often write, and the survey group is of "adults" instead of either RV or LV. And a pollster like Quinnipiac shows decidedly leaner margins among LV. But this poll is the 63rd of 63 national polls taken over the last two years, with a sum total of 217 name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has decisively won 211, or 97.24% of all national matchups.
Note: WAPO was very good in state polling in 2012, VERY good. It absolutely nailed Virginia, one of the key battlegrounds of that year.
This poll, from a Right-leaning newspaper (WAPO) also shows her numbers just as strong as they were 3 months ago, if the Bush/Clinton matchup is any indication.
And in Democratic nomination polling:
Hillary Clinton 66 / Biden 11 / Warren 11, margin: Clinton +55
More data on this poll to follow. I suspect that more matchups (Christie, Huckabee, Paul) are on the way in the next couple of days.
FYI and FYD.
-Stat
