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Old 07-17-2010, 10:53 AM
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[What you state concerning the predictions by Dr. Hansen is simply a lie.

Logical Science

Urban myth: Hansen's 1988 global warming prediction was wrong | Voices.IdahoStatesman.com

One of the great myths of climate science is that James Hansen, the NASA climatologist who has been one of the main voices warning of global warming, made a prediction before Congress in 1988 and it was 300 percent off. The late novelist Michael Crichton even used it in his book State of Fear.

The only problem is it was wrong. Hansen presented three scenarios to Congress and his second was dead on. Colby Beck tells the real story in Grist. How do others judge it? Here’s another look.



Read more: Urban myth: Hansen's 1988 global warming prediction was wrong | Voices.IdahoStatesman.com

What you are saying is simply not true.

Hansen created three different scenarios and attached a prediction to each. In Scanario A, he projected that CO2 would increase at a rate that tracks almost exactly with the readings from Mauna Loa through 2009. The B and C scenarios had lesser increases in CO2.

Decreasing from the frying pan increase of Scenario A's Prediction of Temperature increase to the much less alarming and hardly panicky at all increase of Scenario C's Prediction, the 3 scenarios were presented to Congress and subsequently picked up by Al Gore to hype in sensationalized and often erroneous presentations.

Interestingly, all of the predictions based on the Scenarios outpaced the actual Climate performance owing to an unanticipated cooling which is always left off by those claiming that the predictions were right.

At some point, no matter how beautiful the theory, the results must be examined.

Below, please find links to an article and excerpt from that article which show the salient points of the Hansen predictions and the erroneous conclusions.

The Hansen Model: Another very simple disproof of Anthropogenic Global Warming. Debunk House

From Appendix B, pg. 9361 of Hansen’s 1998 paper…

“Specifically, in scenario A CO2 increases as observed by Keeling for the interval 1958-1981 [keeling et al, 1982] and subsequently with a 1.5%/yr growth of the annual increment.”

“In scenario B the growth of the annual increment of CO2 is is reduced from 1.5%/yr today to 1%/yr in 1990, 0.5%/yr in 2000 and 0 in 2010; thus after 2010 is constant, 1.9 ppmv/yr.”

“In scenario C the CO2 growth is the same as scenarios A and B through 1985; between 1985 and 2000 the annual increment is fixed at 1.5 ppmv/yr; after 2000, CO2 ceases to increase, its abundance remaining fixed at 368 ppmv.”



http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k2...sen1988CO2.png

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k2...HansenvUAH.png

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Old 07-17-2010, 11:15 AM
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As you are unaware or unable to comprehend the damage done to freedom and liberty by the radical egalitarianism of folks like your self, I must tell you that you appear somewhat silly and possibly invidious, in attempting to dissuade me from revealing real and dangerous trends by the use of some sort of personal insult.

I am somewhere between you, and tough.

I take no satisfaction, as in 'I told you so," each time a new element of the Liberal sharia is imposed on a formerly free society,...you can't say this, or you can no longer do that, or eat or drink that...

the kids can't play dodgeball, or buy candy cigarettes, ...
Weird but I recently saw candy cigarettes, it may have been in a dollar store? But that is not the relevant point here. It is hardly a left wing conspiracy to stop children from dodge ball - it is the American parents of today and their fear of life, a fear you demonstrate frequently in your distorted argument that the left is out to do some bad thing. But you fail completely to see that? Somehow you overlook your own paranoia as you point out examples of paranoia and then assume the cause is some left wing conspiracy. I think like most conservative types you narrow mindedly pick and choose issues and must primarily lead a sheltered life both socially and intellectually. If you led a real world life you soon see nuttiness crosses over all spectrum of people, and the majority of people left or right have other things to do then see plans that don't exist.

raising reliant kids

FreeRangeKids
Now open wide...wider...

you must swallow whatever the latest left-wing Sharia demands!

Too fat? Too thin?

Says right there in the Constitution...'government can tell you what to eat, what to say...etc., etc.

When will it be enough for you to stand up against it? Oh,...never.

BTW-
"Obesity Rating for Every American Must Be Included in Stimulus-Mandated Electronic Health Records, Says HHS
Thursday, July 15, 2010
By Matt Cover, Staff Writer




Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius speaks to reporters at HHS headquarters in Washington on July 1, 2010. (CNSNews.com/Penny Starr)(CNSNews.com) – New federal regulations issued this week stipulate that the electronic health records--that all Americans are supposed to have by 2014 under the terms of the stimulus law that President Barack Obama signed last year--must record not only the traditional measures of height and weight, but also the Body Mass Index: a measure of obesity..."
CNSNews.com - Obesity Rating for Every American Must Be Included in Stimulus-Mandated Electronic Health Records, Says HHS


Paranoia? No, just more intuitive than you are.
Sad to see how far down your throat the disease has gone...


Just in case there is any hope that you have a bit of backbone left:

"1.[I]n England, I found my Tanzanian experiences illuminating. The situation was not so extreme in England, of course, …But the arguments for the expansive British welfare state had much in common with those that Nyerere had used to bring about his economic disaster.

a. The poor, helpless victims of economic and social forces, … needed outside assistance in the form of subsidies and state-directed organizations, paid for with the income of the rich. One could not expect them to make serious decisions for themselves.
b. This attitude has worked destruction in Britain as surely as it has in Tanzania. The British state is today as much a monopoly provider of education to the population as it is of health care. The monopoly is maintained because the government and the bureaucratic caste believe, first, that parents would otherwise be too feckless or impoverished to educate their children from their own means; and second, that public education equalizes the chances of children in an otherwise unequal society and is thus a means of engineering social justice.
2. The state started to take over education in 1870, largely because the government saw a national competitor, Prussia, employing state power to educate its children. But practically all British children went to school already: according to the calculations of economist and historian E. G. West, 93 percent of the population was by then literate. It is true that the British state had started providing support to schools long before, but in 1870, 67 percent of school income still came from the fees that parents paid.

a. Not all British children received a good education before the state intervened: that was as vanishingly unlikely then as it is today. But it is clear that poor people—incomparably poorer than anyone in Britain today—were nonetheless capable of making sacrifices to carry out their highly responsible decisions. They did not need the state to tell them that their children should learn to read, write, and reckon. There is no reason to suppose that, left alone, the astonishing progress in the education of the population during the first three-quarters of the nineteenth century would not have continued. The “problem” that the state was solving in its destruction of the voluntary system was its own lack of power over the population.
3.. As in Tanzania, the state-dominated system became self-reinforcing. Because of the high taxation necessary to run it, it reduced the capacity and inclination of people to pay for their own choices—and eventually the habit of making such choices. The British state now decides the important things for British citizens when it comes to education and much else. It is no coincidence that British advocates of the cradle-to-grave welfare state were great admirers of Julius Nyerere."
(emphasis mine throughout)

Sympathy Deformed by Theodore Dalrymple, City Journal Spring 2010
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Old 07-19-2010, 10:45 PM
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Oh, my silly, pathetic, sad little friend. PC, sharia is the concept of the mindless pablum fed the undereducated right wing by their more educated masters. Doesn't matter at all, though. The coalition Rove fashioned has shattered on economic lines. So, really, continue to be the voice behind the curtain.
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Old 07-21-2010, 09:49 PM
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Studying the extinction of the dinosaurs is interesting. Some say birds are descended from dinosaurs. If that is true, then apparently they all didn't die out in a mass world extinction. I am sure the Earth has survived many hits. I say, instead of bickering about how the dinosaurs died, maybe we should turn our attention to finding out how we might deflect some immense celestial rock from hitting Earth and wiping out a lot of us.

I feel the same way about global warming. Instead of trying to use it to scare folks, why not just study the theory and get back to us when you have a serious scientific theory or even a serious hypothesis? Until then, global warming proponents could be directing our attention in the wrong direction.
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Old 07-22-2010, 04:02 AM
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Bfgrn- ahhh, now I see where you are coming from. You see it as a competition between authorities. But you don't see where I am coming from, I don't believe the AWG argument. Its not that I believe the sceptics, its that I am unconvinced by the pro side. Typically I make up my mind on the soundness of the ideas presented. Ideas stand by themselves, it does not matter who says them. Unfortunately there are many people who decide who they want to believe, and then are uncritical of what is said.
What information and frame of reference do you base your assessment on? Are you a climatologist? Is it how you feel?

No, I am not a climatologist. But I am a reasonably educated individual who grew up using a slide rule. I bring that up because we had to basically know what the answer was, before calculating it.

So what does a common sense person know about climate? It changes. Ice Ages give way to Warm Periods which revert to Ice Ages... We have guesses and theories about why this happens, just like we have guesses and theories why the earth's magnetic field flip-flops, but we are far away from a firm understanding.

What about the CO2? I am 100% positive that our burning of fossil fuels has warmed the planet. Stored energy from ancient sunlight has been released, as has the sequestered carbon. But the CO2 hasn't made a dent in the carbon carrying capacity of the oceans. You do remember your basic high school chemistry about how chemical reactions are driven by temperature and the concentration of the products?

What should we do? Anybody who thinks we are going to stop burning fossil fuels until they are exhausted is crazy or naive. It doesn't really matter whether it takes 500 years or 5000. I can't see how using Cap and Trade, Carbon Tax, etc to cripple the very societies most likely to come up with alternative energy sources, is going to help us.

That is the basic reasoning behind what I think about AWG. I see no compelling evidence or theories from the AWG Doomsters to change my thinking but I am completely open to new information or understanding.
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Old 07-22-2010, 04:43 AM
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Old 07-22-2010, 10:54 AM
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Bfgrn- ahhh, now I see where you are coming from. You see it as a competition between authorities. But you don't see where I am coming from, I don't believe the AWG argument. Its not that I believe the sceptics, its that I am unconvinced by the pro side. Typically I make up my mind on the soundness of the ideas presented. Ideas stand by themselves, it does not matter who says them. Unfortunately there are many people who decide who they want to believe, and then are uncritical of what is said.
What information and frame of reference do you base your assessment on? Are you a climatologist? Is it how you feel?

No, I am not a climatologist. But I am a reasonably educated individual who grew up using a slide rule. I bring that up because we had to basically know what the answer was, before calculating it.

So what does a common sense person know about climate? It changes. Ice Ages give way to Warm Periods which revert to Ice Ages... We have guesses and theories about why this happens, just like we have guesses and theories why the earth's magnetic field flip-flops, but we are far away from a firm understanding.

What about the CO2? I am 100% positive that our burning of fossil fuels has warmed the planet. Stored energy from ancient sunlight has been released, as has the sequestered carbon. But the CO2 hasn't made a dent in the carbon carrying capacity of the oceans. You do remember your basic high school chemistry about how chemical reactions are driven by temperature and the concentration of the products?

What should we do? Anybody who thinks we are going to stop burning fossil fuels until they are exhausted is crazy or naive. It doesn't really matter whether it takes 500 years or 5000. I can't see how using Cap and Trade, Carbon Tax, etc to cripple the very societies most likely to come up with alternative energy sources, is going to help us.

That is the basic reasoning behind what I think about AWG. I see no compelling evidence or theories from the AWG Doomsters to change my thinking but I am completely open to new information or understanding.
Calculate THIS...

Sea levels are rising faster than scientists predicted just a few years ago. Himalayan glaciers are melting.

According to NASA, 2010 is on course to be the planet’s hottest year since records started in 1880. The current top 10, in descending order, are: 2005, 2007, 2009, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001 and 2008.

Hot is the new normal.

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Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Global Maps from GHCN Data
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Old 07-22-2010, 11:38 AM
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Amazing vids...THANKS...
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Old 07-22-2010, 12:14 PM
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Science has been warped into a political religion governments use to control the population. It no longer resembles legitimate provable science. If you go to google maps satellite view & look at the ocean floor It is clear as day. There is no way in hell that Alaska & Russia are being pushed together as Pangaea theory suggest. The Alaska Bering Sea looks like an orange peeling being pulled apart. For years now scientist have been building hundreds of theories based on Pangaea theory. What will happen to their funding if this is exposed? This also changes many other theories in other areas of science.
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Old 07-23-2010, 05:43 AM
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Calculate THIS...

Sea levels are rising faster than scientists predicted just a few years ago. Himalayan glaciers are melting.

According to NASA, 2010 is on course to be the planet’s hottest year since records started in 1880. The current top 10, in descending order, are: 2005, 2007, 2009, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001 and 2008.

Hot is the new normal.

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Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Global Maps from GHCN Data
Why was "Global Warming" renamed "Global Climate Change"? Guests cannot see images in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see images.

I forget, didn't you guys say we are we experiencing "Peak Oil"? How is it possible to fill the atmosphere with carbon if we are running out? Guests cannot see images in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see images.

Weren't you guys screaming global cooling 35 years ago? Guests cannot see images in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see images.

Why were all the thermometers that read cool excluded? Guests cannot see images in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see images.

Hey Stupid. Doesn't CO2 Lag Temperature by 800 years? Guests cannot see images in the messages. Please register to forum by clicking here to see images.

The Vikings farmed Greenland from 800s until the 1300s

Your Same New York Times said to Cool the Hype

In 1421 China sailed through the “Polar regions” in a ship, no ice.

The “Ozone Hole” is getting larger even after Al Gore helped to ban Freon & CFCs through the Montreal Accord that doesn't require participation of China, India, & other developing countries.

Rolling Stone Magazine: Al Gore The Avenger - "As vice president, Gore was a chief architect of the Kyoto Protocol, the historic accord on reducing carbon-dioxide emissions. But the Senate refused to ratify the treaty, calling the evidence "inconclusive."" China exempt from reducing greenhouse gases in Kyoto Signed by Clinton-Gore.

Al Gores campaign was funded by the (PRC) Peoples Republic of China. Do you see a pattern here with Gore helping China? Gore was key in passing NAFTA. (See Gore vs Perot Debate)

China is importing & hording oil at twice the rate they are using it.

Al Gore does not actually believe his CO2 causes warming story.

Albany, New York has one of the longest actual temp measurements in U.S. When they started recording temp measurements in 1822 in Albany, New York the Average Annual Temperature for 1820 was 49.0F, & in 2008 it was still 49.0F.

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Old 07-23-2010, 11:08 AM
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Science has been warped into a political religion governments use to control the population. It no longer resembles legitimate provable science. If you go to google maps satellite view & look at the ocean floor It is clear as day. There is no way in hell that Alaska & Russia are being pushed together as Pangaea theory suggest. The Alaska Bering Sea looks like an orange peeling being pulled apart. For years now scientist have been building hundreds of theories based on Pangaea theory. What will happen to their funding if this is exposed? This also changes many other theories in other areas of science.
I agree 100%, one need only to look at the global warming religion being foist on the population. The planet expansion theory makes a lot of sense and, to me, seems to bolster the theory that Earth may not be so unique in the universe because, if true, all planets evolve the same way. Moreover, if the scientific community would accept it and study it perhaps some common thread could be found between planets & stars and how the universe seems to work. Excellent info...
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Old 07-23-2010, 11:25 AM
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Amazing vids...THANKS...
Science has been warped into a political religion governments use to control the population. It no longer resembles legitimate provable science. If you go to google maps satellite view & look at the ocean floor It is clear as day. There is no way in hell that Alaska & Russia are being pushed together as Pangaea theory suggest. The Alaska Bering Sea looks like an orange peeling being pulled apart. For years now scientist have been building hundreds of theories based on Pangaea theory. What will happen to their funding if this is exposed? This also changes many other theories in other areas of science.
I agree 100%, one need only to look at the global warming religion being foist on the population. The planet expansion theory makes a lot of sense and, to me, seems to bolster the theory that Earth may not be so unique in the universe because, if true, all planets evolve the same way. Moreover, if the scientific community would accept it and study it perhaps some common thread could be found between planets & stars and how the universe seems to work. Excellent info...
They will never do that. How could they preach overpopulation of a planet that continually expands. It also calls into question to many entrenched scientific theories.
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Old 07-23-2010, 09:00 PM
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Creationism/ID is based on faith.

Evolution is based on science.

And the first group natter needlessly under the sheet together, reinforcing group hypnosis.

Now understand, so do the atheists.
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Old 07-23-2010, 09:31 PM
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Evolution is based on science.
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99% of Evolution is based on cult science fiction.
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Old 07-23-2010, 09:36 PM
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Evolution is based on science.
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99% of Evolution is based on cult science fiction.
Your attitude is why your side is losing politically.
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