Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

The point of this thread was not to put "spin" on anything, and I have stated several times that the results putting Obama ahead are probably of no consequence at this point in the race.

The point of the thread was that Rasmussen, specifically, slants its numbers Conservative, and, as a result, it is the only polling agency that any of the right-wingers on this board post about.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

And that was decidedly debunked- no matter how many times you claim it was not.

__________________
Armed guards at school are a good thing if you're rich and famous, but God forbid we provide that same security for the masses.

"Industry-wide" from whom???

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Turns out that in just about all the small races in 2010, Rasmussen sucked.

And in the big race in 2008, as we know, they were tied for 6th.

The FACT is, that the right-wing media constantly and endlessly claims that Rasmussen is the "most accurate", in order to keep their viewers happy, and drive up ratings.

But there are no "facts" to back up that claim.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

It was not. Not once.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

Yes, I posted a link showing Rasmussen's results from 2008 and their current polling- both of which were/are consistent to actual results i.e. the 2008 election.

That said, here is an accurate analysis.

Rasmussen vs Gallup – what’s going on? | PoliPundit.com

Up until now I have viewed Gallup and Rasmussen as equally reliable in their polling. Generally they have been closer to each other than either was to the other pollsters that publish public polling results. Recently that has changed.

Rasmussen and Gallup are now both producing daily head to head tracking polls on Romney and Obama. Over pretty much the same period Rasmussen shows Romney up 5 and Gallup shows Obama up 7, a 12% difference well outside of either polls MOE. It’s also interesting that, over the last 7-10 days, the Gallup poll has shown a lot more movement than the Rasmussen poll. Pretty strange why are they different? It appears that the reason is that the two polls are using very different assumptions about voter demographics.

Rasmussen is kind enough to publish their demographic assumptions. Rasmussen conducts a three month moving average of the party demographics that each month produces data for a sample set of 45000 voters. So as of the three months from January – March of 2012 their sampling indicated the following party affiliation for the electorate: 36.1% Republican, 32.8% Democrat and 31.1% unaffiliated. This is by far the most comprehensive analysis of voter demographics by party affiliation of any polling organization.

In the 2010 races:

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

So that means I'm not a right winger, good to know.

Again where do you get 7.6 because I have looked at most polls and they show a 7.2 Obama win.

OK, one, your post is a blog from:

Their byline describes their bias in analysis.

You seriously may as well be linking a post from another poster on this board.

But, putting that aside, the only thing that proves is that Rasmussen uses a different set of variables for its numbers than all the other agencies, (one that is preferred by Conservatives) to produce its consistently biased results.

That doesn't "debunk" anything I've said, if anything it reinforces my point.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

Actually, you're right, it's 7.3%. For some reason I was transposing the poll average number with the final tally.

But that still doesn't change anything. Everyone with 7% or 8% is still closer than Rasmussen.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

Ahhh... Never said differently did I? If you want to compute that way then you are correct if you want the more complicated scientific analyzing then it comes out different.

Bottom line all of them were with in the margin of error, so tech, they are all correct and it matters not which of the major polls you follow, they are all close.

Yep, that is true.

My argument was simply an effort to point out that the criteria used to peg Rasmussen as "the most accurate" was faulty.

Really, statistically, there was like a 10 way tie, including all the pollsters within the margin of error.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho

Information from a blog is only in error if they are inaccurate- otherwise it is merely a place to find information.

You make absolutely no sense. The facts are that Rasmussen uses a sampling of likely voters that actually favors registered democrats.

They also, unlike Gallup, share that information with the public- In addition their polling of the 2008 presidential election shows them favoring Obama, except a brief period in September, for the win. That data is consistent with their margin of error.

Scott Rasmussen has nothing to gain by skewing his polls- everything to gain by attempting to have accurate numbers. You people need some serious chill time.

So, it was a pointless thread. Since they all tied anyway and that means Rasmussen is just as good as any other. So technically Rasmussen is the most accurate, as are the others.

It obviously does not skew Democrat, as his numbers always swing right.

Even in 2008, his numbers did not skew left, though the closer he got to the election, the more accurate his numbers became. You can see this by going here and scrolling down:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

And yes, he has everything to gain by skewing his polls. Since he started doing it, he has been featured on FoxNews all the time, and is quoted by right wingers continuously.

Skewing his polls to the right has brought Scott Rasmussen fame and fortune, and he knows it quite well.

__________________
.
.
.
Ho Ho Ho