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Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

This is a discussion on Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business within the Politics forums, part of the US Discussion category; Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl No matter the spin any liberal poster attempts to put on these numbers- The facts are that even if we ...


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  #106 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:47 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
No matter the spin any liberal poster attempts to put on these numbers- The facts are that even if we give Obama the positive 2.5 RCP lead over Romney it is within the margin of error. For an incumbent president that's not a very good place to be, especially in light of all the negatives in the following areas.
Obama Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Direction of Country
Latest State of Union Polls
The point of this thread was not to put "spin" on anything, and I have stated several times that the results putting Obama ahead are probably of no consequence at this point in the race.

The point of the thread was that Rasmussen, specifically, slants its numbers Conservative, and, as a result, it is the only polling agency that any of the right-wingers on this board post about.
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  #107 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 12:48 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
No matter the spin any liberal poster attempts to put on these numbers- The facts are that even if we give Obama the positive 2.5 RCP lead over Romney it is within the margin of error. For an incumbent president that's not a very good place to be, especially in light of all the negatives in the following areas.
Obama Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Direction of Country
Latest State of Union Polls
The point of this thread was not to put "spin" on anything, and I have stated several times that the results putting Obama ahead are probably of no consequence at this point in the race.

The point of the thread was that Rasmussen, specifically, slants its numbers Conservative, and, as a result, it is the only polling agency that any of the right-wingers on this board post about.
And that was decidedly debunked- no matter how many times you claim it was not.
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Old 07-06-2012, 12:54 PM
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Old 07-06-2012, 12:56 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Oldstyle View Post
Yet Ramussen has an industry wide reputation for accuracy.
"Industry-wide" from whom???

Quote: Originally Posted by Oldstyle View Post
Do you realize how paranoid you sound when you accuse him of "leaning conservative"? You could make this claim if he was consistently OFF on his polling results,
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Turns out that in just about all the small races in 2010, Rasmussen sucked.

And in the big race in 2008, as we know, they were tied for 6th.

Quote: Originally Posted by Oldstyle View Post
Vast...but the fact is...he's not. I know you may not LIKE that...but it's the reality with which you're faced.
The FACT is, that the right-wing media constantly and endlessly claims that Rasmussen is the "most accurate", in order to keep their viewers happy, and drive up ratings.

But there are no "facts" to back up that claim.
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Old 07-06-2012, 12:57 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
And that was decidedly debunked- no matter how many times you claim it was not.
It was not. Not once.
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Old 07-06-2012, 01:03 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
And that was decidedly debunked- no matter how many times you claim it was not.
It was not. Not once.
Yes, I posted a link showing Rasmussen's results from 2008 and their current polling- both of which were/are consistent to actual results i.e. the 2008 election.

That said, here is an accurate analysis.

Rasmussen vs Gallup – what’s going on? | PoliPundit.com

Up until now I have viewed Gallup and Rasmussen as equally reliable in their polling. Generally they have been closer to each other than either was to the other pollsters that publish public polling results. Recently that has changed.

Rasmussen and Gallup are now both producing daily head to head tracking polls on Romney and Obama. Over pretty much the same period Rasmussen shows Romney up 5 and Gallup shows Obama up 7, a 12% difference well outside of either polls MOE. It’s also interesting that, over the last 7-10 days, the Gallup poll has shown a lot more movement than the Rasmussen poll. Pretty strange why are they different? It appears that the reason is that the two polls are using very different assumptions about voter demographics.

Rasmussen is kind enough to publish their demographic assumptions. Rasmussen conducts a three month moving average of the party demographics that each month produces data for a sample set of 45000 voters. So as of the three months from January – March of 2012 their sampling indicated the following party affiliation for the electorate: 36.1% Republican, 32.8% Democrat and 31.1% unaffiliated. This is by far the most comprehensive analysis of voter demographics by party affiliation of any polling organization.

Last edited by clevergirl; 07-06-2012 at 01:04 PM.
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Old 07-06-2012, 01:06 PM
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In the 2010 races:

Quote:
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
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  #113 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:08 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
No matter the spin any liberal poster attempts to put on these numbers- The facts are that even if we give Obama the positive 2.5 RCP lead over Romney it is within the margin of error. For an incumbent president that's not a very good place to be, especially in light of all the negatives in the following areas.
Obama Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Direction of Country
Latest State of Union Polls
The point of this thread was not to put "spin" on anything, and I have stated several times that the results putting Obama ahead are probably of no consequence at this point in the race.

The point of the thread was that Rasmussen, specifically, slants its numbers Conservative, and, as a result, it is the only polling agency that any of the right-wingers on this board post about.
So that means I'm not a right winger, good to know.

Again where do you get 7.6 because I have looked at most polls and they show a 7.2 Obama win.
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  #114 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:13 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
Yes, I posted a link showing Rasmussen's results from 2008 and their current polling- both of which were/are consistent to actual results i.e. the 2008 election.

That said, here is an accurate analysis.

Rasmussen vs Gallup – what’s going on? | PoliPundit.com

Up until now I have viewed Gallup and Rasmussen as equally reliable in their polling. Generally they have been closer to each other than either was to the other pollsters that publish public polling results. Recently that has changed.

Rasmussen and Gallup are now both producing daily head to head tracking polls on Romney and Obama. Over pretty much the same period Rasmussen shows Romney up 5 and Gallup shows Obama up 7, a 12% difference well outside of either polls MOE. It’s also interesting that, over the last 7-10 days, the Gallup poll has shown a lot more movement than the Rasmussen poll. Pretty strange why are they different? It appears that the reason is that the two polls are using very different assumptions about voter demographics.

Rasmussen is kind enough to publish their demographic assumptions. Rasmussen conducts a three month moving average of the party demographics that each month produces data for a sample set of 45000 voters. So as of the three months from January – March of 2012 their sampling indicated the following party affiliation for the electorate: 36.1% Republican, 32.8% Democrat and 31.1% unaffiliated. This is by far the most comprehensive analysis of voter demographics by party affiliation of any polling organization.
OK, one, your post is a blog from:

Quote:
PoliPundit.com
Elections and Politics with a Conservative bent
Their byline describes their bias in analysis.

You seriously may as well be linking a post from another poster on this board.

But, putting that aside, the only thing that proves is that Rasmussen uses a different set of variables for its numbers than all the other agencies, (one that is preferred by Conservatives) to produce its consistently biased results.

That doesn't "debunk" anything I've said, if anything it reinforces my point.
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  #115 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:15 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Papageorgio View Post
So that means I'm not a right winger, good to know.

Again where do you get 7.6 because I have looked at most polls and they show a 7.2 Obama win.
Actually, you're right, it's 7.3%. For some reason I was transposing the poll average number with the final tally.

But that still doesn't change anything. Everyone with 7% or 8% is still closer than Rasmussen.
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  #116 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 01:20 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Papageorgio View Post
So that means I'm not a right winger, good to know.

Again where do you get 7.6 because I have looked at most polls and they show a 7.2 Obama win.
Actually, you're right, it's 7.3%. For some reason I was transposing the poll average number with the final tally.

But that still doesn't change anything. Everyone with 7% or 8% is still closer than Rasmussen.
Ahhh... Never said differently did I? If you want to compute that way then you are correct if you want the more complicated scientific analyzing then it comes out different.

Bottom line all of them were with in the margin of error, so tech, they are all correct and it matters not which of the major polls you follow, they are all close.
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Old 07-06-2012, 01:22 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Papageorgio View Post
Ahhh... Never said differently did I? If you want to compute that way then you are correct if you want the more complicated scientific analyzing then it comes out different.

Bottom line all of them were with in the margin of error, so tech, they are all correct and it matters not which of the major polls you follow, they are all close.
Yep, that is true.

My argument was simply an effort to point out that the criteria used to peg Rasmussen as "the most accurate" was faulty.

Really, statistically, there was like a 10 way tie, including all the pollsters within the margin of error.
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Old 07-06-2012, 01:27 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
Yes, I posted a link showing Rasmussen's results from 2008 and their current polling- both of which were/are consistent to actual results i.e. the 2008 election.

That said, here is an accurate analysis.

Rasmussen vs Gallup – what’s going on? | PoliPundit.com

Up until now I have viewed Gallup and Rasmussen as equally reliable in their polling. Generally they have been closer to each other than either was to the other pollsters that publish public polling results. Recently that has changed.

Rasmussen and Gallup are now both producing daily head to head tracking polls on Romney and Obama. Over pretty much the same period Rasmussen shows Romney up 5 and Gallup shows Obama up 7, a 12% difference well outside of either polls MOE. It’s also interesting that, over the last 7-10 days, the Gallup poll has shown a lot more movement than the Rasmussen poll. Pretty strange why are they different? It appears that the reason is that the two polls are using very different assumptions about voter demographics.

Rasmussen is kind enough to publish their demographic assumptions. Rasmussen conducts a three month moving average of the party demographics that each month produces data for a sample set of 45000 voters. So as of the three months from January – March of 2012 their sampling indicated the following party affiliation for the electorate: 36.1% Republican, 32.8% Democrat and 31.1% unaffiliated. This is by far the most comprehensive analysis of voter demographics by party affiliation of any polling organization.
OK, one, your post is a blog from:

Quote:
PoliPundit.com
Elections and Politics with a Conservative bent
Their byline describes their bias in analysis.

You seriously may as well be linking a post from another poster on this board.

But, putting that aside, the only thing that proves is that Rasmussen uses a different set of variables for its numbers than all the other agencies, (one that is preferred by Conservatives) to produce its consistently biased results.

That doesn't "debunk" anything I've said, if anything it reinforces my point.
Information from a blog is only in error if they are inaccurate- otherwise it is merely a place to find information.

You make absolutely no sense. The facts are that Rasmussen uses a sampling of likely voters that actually favors registered democrats.

They also, unlike Gallup, share that information with the public- In addition their polling of the 2008 presidential election shows them favoring Obama, except a brief period in September, for the win. That data is consistent with their margin of error.

Scott Rasmussen has nothing to gain by skewing his polls- everything to gain by attempting to have accurate numbers. You people need some serious chill time.
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Old 07-06-2012, 01:28 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Vast LWC View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Papageorgio View Post
Ahhh... Never said differently did I? If you want to compute that way then you are correct if you want the more complicated scientific analyzing then it comes out different.

Bottom line all of them were with in the margin of error, so tech, they are all correct and it matters not which of the major polls you follow, they are all close.
Yep, that is true.

My argument was simply an effort to point out that the criteria used to peg Rasmussen as "the most accurate" was faulty.

Really, statistically, there was like a 10 way tie, including all the pollsters within the margin of error.
So, it was a pointless thread. Since they all tied anyway and that means Rasmussen is just as good as any other. So technically Rasmussen is the most accurate, as are the others.
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  #120 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2012, 05:50 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by clevergirl View Post
Information from a blog is only in error if they are inaccurate- otherwise it is merely a place to find information.

You make absolutely no sense. The facts are that Rasmussen uses a sampling of likely voters that actually favors registered democrats.

They also, unlike Gallup, share that information with the public- In addition their polling of the 2008 presidential election shows them favoring Obama, except a brief period in September, for the win. That data is consistent with their margin of error.

Scott Rasmussen has nothing to gain by skewing his polls- everything to gain by attempting to have accurate numbers. You people need some serious chill time.
It obviously does not skew Democrat, as his numbers always swing right.

Even in 2008, his numbers did not skew left, though the closer he got to the election, the more accurate his numbers became. You can see this by going here and scrolling down:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

And yes, he has everything to gain by skewing his polls. Since he started doing it, he has been featured on FoxNews all the time, and is quoted by right wingers continuously.

Skewing his polls to the right has brought Scott Rasmussen fame and fortune, and he knows it quite well.
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