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Old 07-13-2008, 11:17 AM
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Worst fireseason in recorded history

Worst California fireseason in recorded history, and we have a long way to go yet...

The Associated Press: Crews stamp out flames in Paradise, Calif. blaze
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Old 07-13-2008, 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
Worst California fireseason in recorded history, and we have a long way to go yet...

The Associated Press: Crews stamp out flames in Paradise, Calif. blaze

Yep and as more and more people move into the areas effected it will only get worse, But I assume you are using this of more proof we are all going to die from GW soon right?
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Old 07-13-2008, 06:24 PM
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Terrible fires. Coming from a country that lives with them I can only wish the fireighters and citizens can get on top of these fires. Forget the politics, bushfires are endemic to certain terrains and California is one of them. Where I live our biggest forest industries use pinus radiata (you call it Monterey Pine) which we imported from California, so we know what it's like when fire takes hold in those forests.
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Old 07-13-2008, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Diuretic View Post
Terrible fires. Coming from a country that lives with them I can only wish the fireighters and citizens can get on top of these fires. Forget the politics, bushfires are endemic to certain terrains and California is one of them. Where I live our biggest forest industries use pinus radiata (you call it Monterey Pine) which we imported from California, so we know what it's like when fire takes hold in those forests.
The point is Fires have always been a problem in So Cal. It is only now that so many people live there that we always hear about them. Also many of the fires are found to be arson or started by people on accident.
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Old 07-13-2008, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Charles_Main View Post
The point is Fires have always been a problem in So Cal. It is only now that so many people live there that we always hear about them. Also many of the fires are found to be arson or started by people on accident.
Yes, southen California (and Arizona and Nevada) have very similar topography to where I live (most of my state is arid land but some of it further south is reasonably lush) and bushfires are endemic here. In fact bushfires are necessary for regeneration of certain plants (not the poor animals though).

More population means more effect means more chances of some idiot deliberately lighting a fire on a 43c day in the middle of summer as well as some idiot using a machine in a paddock and starting a fire that way from sparks.
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Old 07-13-2008, 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Charles_Main View Post
Yep and as more and more people move into the areas effected it will only get worse, But I assume you are using this of more proof we are all going to die from GW soon right?

One can certainly assume that this is proof that California is having a terrible year for forest fires.

Quote:
About 20,000 firefighters from 41 states and Puerto Rico were fighting more than 320 active fires around the state, and more were on the way from Mexico, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has ordered 2,400 National Guard troops to join the fire crews on the ground for the first time in more than 30 years.
320 active forest fires?

I realize that California is a big place, but if we had 320 active forest fires in the whole of New England, it would be pretty damned monumental disaster.

I realize that much of CA isn't nearly as heavily forested in most areas of the East, but holy shit, that's a lot of fires even if it's just burning scrub.
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Old 07-13-2008, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles_Main View Post
The point is Fires have always been a problem in So Cal. It is only now that so many people live there that we always hear about them. Also many of the fires are found to be arson or started by people on accident.
California is drier now than at anytime in recorded history. In June there were 1,500 fires burning most started by lightening storms. And there is this from the article I posted.....

"Officials say more fires have been burning at one time this year than during any other period in recorded California history.

"This is truly a national disaster. The magnitude is incredible," said Daniel Berlant, a state fire agency spokesman.

U.S. Forest Service spokesman Jason Kirchner said firefighters have spent hundreds of millions of dollars fighting the blazes, and that doesn't include the economic cost to businesses, tourism and agriculture, or the impact on air and water quality.

Officials warn the state could suffer a lot more because fire danger is typically highest in Southern California in the fall, when hot dry wind could scour hillsides desiccated by a two-year drought.

"The ground is set for some really horrific events, bigger than we've seen so far," Max Mortiz, co-director of the University of California Center for Fire Research & Outreach. The conditions show a need for more research into the patterns of weather, wind and geography that could show where fires are likely to flare into infernos, he added."
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Old 07-13-2008, 09:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
California is drier now than at anytime in recorded history. In June there were 1,500 fires burning most started by lightening storms. And there is this from the article I posted.....

"Officials say more fires have been burning at one time this year than during any other period in recorded California history.

"This is truly a national disaster. The magnitude is incredible," said Daniel Berlant, a state fire agency spokesman.

U.S. Forest Service spokesman Jason Kirchner said firefighters have spent hundreds of millions of dollars fighting the blazes, and that doesn't include the economic cost to businesses, tourism and agriculture, or the impact on air and water quality.

Officials warn the state could suffer a lot more because fire danger is typically highest in Southern California in the fall, when hot dry wind could scour hillsides desiccated by a two-year drought.

"The ground is set for some really horrific events, bigger than we've seen so far," Max Mortiz, co-director of the University of California Center for Fire Research & Outreach. The conditions show a need for more research into the patterns of weather, wind and geography that could show where fires are likely to flare into infernos, he added."
Yet globally, droughts are on the decline, when looking at the last 100 years.
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Old 07-13-2008, 09:15 PM
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Here is part of the reason why Cali is seeing an even worse drought this year:

Quote:
The Rush Limbaugh Show - June 9th, 2008

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: "There was a story over the weekend about drought in California. It turns out the reason for the drought is a federal judge who made a decision in January to stop the flow of water from the Sacramento Delta to the southern part of the state because a fish had gotten somehow entangled in the pumps. And so for half the year, maybe seven months, the people of California had to deal with less water so that a fish would not be harmed by pumps! I know that I joke about the circumstance here in Florida -- all along the East Coast -- with the turtle lights and so forth, but it's all the same."

END TRANSCRIPT
I am looking for the ruling to post. Rush has it right. Environmentalists and their unintended consequences.
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Old 07-13-2008, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by maneal View Post
Here is part of the reason why Cali is seeing an even worse drought this year:



I am looking for the ruling to post. Rush has it right. Environmentalists and their unintended consequences.
I wonder why we have such a bad drought down here? Could be lack of rain I think.
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Old 07-13-2008, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Diuretic View Post
I wonder why we have such a bad drought down here? Could be lack of rain I think.
I don't know but droughts have been on the decline in the US.


An important article appeared in the literature recently with some surprising results given the predictions of the climate models. Konstantinos Andreadis and Dennis Lettenmaier of the University of Washington have published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters entitled “Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States,” and the results are peculiar—in light of climate model projections—to say the least. In the abstract, they write “Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a small portion of the country over the last century.”


Andreadis and Lettenmaier used a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to simulate soil moisture and runoff over the continental United States; they ran the model at a spatial resolution of one-half degree and at a daily time step. The VIC solves energy and water balance equations over each grid cell, accounting for variability in soil (three layers of soil are considered), vegetation, precipitation, and topography. The model considers actual variations in precipitation, air temperature, and wind speed over the period 1925 to 2003 to calculate soil moisture and runoff. The team tested the VIC repeatedly and provided convincing evidence that the model very accurately simulates soil moisture and runoff.

Andreadis and Lettenmaier calculated trends in soil moisture and found that 1450 cells (43.6% of the domain) exhibit a statistically significant (p=0.05) upward trend, while far fewer (95 cells, or 2.9% of the domain) showed a statistically significant downward trend. They wrote “the wetting trends cover the majority of the country” and as seen in their figure below (Figure 1), the central United States is populated by “blue” grid cells indicating a significant increase in soil moisture. Furthermore, they found that “Annual trends in runoff are very similar to those found for soil moisture” and that “These results agree with previous studies that have suggested a general increase in streamflow over the conterminous U.S.”

World Climate Report Where are the Droughts?
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Old 07-13-2008, 11:43 PM
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Well at least you're not suffering from drought, down this end of the planet we're in diabolical strife. Bloody drought.
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Old 07-14-2008, 02:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Diuretic View Post
Well at least you're not suffering from drought, down this end of the planet we're in diabolical strife. Bloody drought.
World Climate Report Global View of Wildfires
A recent article in Global Change Biology caught our eye with its title “Global spatial patterns and temporal trends of burned area between 1981 and 2000 using NOAA-NASA Pathfinder.” Given that we had not seen any press coverage for this piece, we suspected it would be a perfect fit for World Climate Report. Sure enough, a few sentences into the abstract we found “The total annual burned area has not increased in the last 20 years” and we suddenly knew full well why we have not heard of this research. Announcing that burn area has not increased is not going to sit well with the fraternity members!
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Old 07-14-2008, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
World Climate Report Global View of Wildfires
A recent article in Global Change Biology caught our eye with its title “Global spatial patterns and temporal trends of burned area between 1981 and 2000 using NOAA-NASA Pathfinder.” Given that we had not seen any press coverage for this piece, we suspected it would be a perfect fit for World Climate Report. Sure enough, a few sentences into the abstract we found “The total annual burned area has not increased in the last 20 years” and we suddenly knew full well why we have not heard of this research. Announcing that burn area has not increased is not going to sit well with the fraternity members!
You keep quoting your Exxon butt boys.

Here's some info on the "World Climate Report" editor.
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Diuretic View Post
I wonder why we have such a bad drought down here? Could be lack of rain I think.

Responding with such remarkable restraint in the face of the sheer blather that is being posted here...for example this:

Quote:
The Rush Limbaugh Show - June 9th, 2008

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: "There was a story over the weekend about drought in California. It turns out the reason for the drought is a federal judge who made a decision in January to stop the flow of water from the Sacramento Delta to the southern part of the state because a fish had gotten somehow entangled in the pumps. And so for half the year, maybe seven months, the people of California had to deal with less water so that a fish would not be harmed by pumps! I know that I joke about the circumstance here in Florida -- all along the East Coast -- with the turtle lights and so forth, but it's all the same."

deserves something special.




Nice retort Diuetic.
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