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The North Pole could melt this year

This is a discussion on The North Pole could melt this year within the Environment forums, part of the US Discussion category; Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves Now why wouldn't you have posted this part of the article? However, according to David Hofmann, director of the NOAA ...


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  #271 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 10:32 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
Now why wouldn't you have posted this part of the article?
However, according to David Hofmann, director of the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., the rate of carbon-dioxide increase returned to the long-term average level of about 1.5 ppm per year in 2004, indicating that the temporary fluctuation was probably due to changes in the natural processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
25 years of measurements isn't even a blink on a global scale. The other problem that occurs is that the instruments used to measure temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been in the same places for those 25 years despite a population explosion and rapid rate of urbanization around some of those locations. Many measuring devices that were once in a hayfield or pasture are now surrounded by buildings, concrete and asphalt so of course the measurements now are different than they were 25 years ago. Those devices mounted on buoys on the oceans, however, have fairly consistently recorded minor changes or even a drop over the last 20+ years.

This was illustrated in my city when some became curious at the wide discrepancy among various weather reporting stations in the Weatherunderground system here. So a reporter went out on an impromptu information gathering mission to find out why there were such broad discrepancies. He found station mounted next to air conditioning compressors, hung near dryer vents, placed in the sun much of the day, placed between buildings in a sheltered area. Needless to say, none of those were giving competent readings. And the same kind of problems exist with those measuring devices used for much scientific analysis of mean temperatures and CO2 levels too.

Of course we should continue to study all aspects of our environment, climate etc. But there simply is still insuficient evidence that AGW is occurring to any significant degree and, even if it is, insufficient evidence that it will be harmful in any way.

I think we need a great deal more certainty than now exists before making global policy, taking away choices and freedoms, and perhaps dooming hundreds of millions of people to more generations of crushing poverty.
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  #272 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 10:39 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
Because that was a reference to a one year fluctuation in a 50 year march upward. Look at the raw numbers from Mauna Loa. They tell the real story.
This I believe tells the whole story about the increase of CO2.
The concentration of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere has increased
during the past century, as shown in Figure 17. The magnitude of
this atmospheric increase is currently about 4 gigatons (Gt C) of carbon
per year. Total hu man industrial CO2 production, primarily from
use of coal, oil, and natural gas and the production of cement, is currently
about 8 Gt C per year (7,56,57). Humans also exhale about 0.6
Gt C per year, which has been sequestered by plants from atmospheric
CO2. Office air concentrations often exceed 1,000 ppm CO2.
To put these figures in perspective, it is estimated that the atmosphere
contains 780 Gt C; the surface ocean contains 1,000 Gt C;
vegetation, soils, and detritus contain 2,000 Gt C; and the intermediate
and deep oceans contain 38,000 Gt C, as CO2 or CO2 hydration
products. Each year, the surface ocean and atmosphere exchange an
estimated 90 Gt C; vegetation and the atmosphere, 100 Gt C; marine
biota and the surface ocean, 50 Gt C; and the surface ocean and the
intermediate and deep oceans, 40 Gt C (56,57).
So great are the magnitudes of these reservoirs, the rates of ex -
change between them, and the uncertainties of these estimated num -
bers that the sources of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 have not
been determined with certainty (58,59). Atmospheric concentrations
of CO2 are reported to have varied widely over ge logical time, with
peaks, according to some estimates, some 20-fold higher than at
present and lows at approximately 200 ppm (60-62).
Ice-core records are reported to show seven extended periods dur -
ing 650,000 years in which CO2, methane (CH4), and temperature
increased and then decreased (63-65). Ice-core records contain sub -
stantial uncertainties (58), so these correlations are imprecise.
In all seven glacial and inter glacial cycles, the reported changes in
CO2 and CH4 lagged the temperature changes and could not, therefore,
have caused them (66). These fluctuations probably involved
temperature-caused changes in oceanic and terrestrial CO2 and CH4
content. More recent CO2 fluctuations also lag temperature (67,68).
In 1957, Revelle and Seuss (69) estimated that temperature-
caused out-gassing of ocean CO2 would increase atmospheric
CO2 by about 7% per °C temperature rise. The reported change dur -
ing the seven interglacials of the 650,000-year ice core record is
about 5% per °C (63), which agrees with the out-gassing calculation.
Between 1900 and 2006, Antarctic CO2 increased 30% per 0.1 °C
temperature change (72), and world CO2 increased 30% per 0.5 °C.
In addition to ocean out-gassing, CO2 from human use of hydrocarbons
is a new source. Neither this new source nor the older natural
CO2 sources are caus ing atmospheric temperature to change.
The hypothesis that the CO2 rise during the interglacials caused
the temperature to rise requires an increase of about 6 °C per 30%
rise in CO2 as seen in the ice core record. If this hypothesis were correct,
Earth temperatures would have risen about 6 °C between 1900
and 2006, rather than the rise of between 0.1 °C and 0.5 °C, which
actually occurred. This difference is illustrated in Figure 16.
The 650,000-year ice-core record does not, therefore, agree with
the hypothesis of “human-caused global warming,” and, in fact, pro -
vides empirical evidence that invalidates this hypothesis.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/GWReview_OISM600.pdf
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  #273 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 10:42 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Foxfyre View Post
25 years of measurements isn't even a blink on a global scale. The other problem that occurs is that the instruments used to measure temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been in the same places for those 25 years despite a population explosion and rapid rate of urbanization around some of those locations. Many measuring devices that were once in a hayfield or pasture are now surrounded by buildings, concrete and asphalt so of course the measurements now are different than they were 25 years ago. Those devices mounted on buoys on the oceans, however, have fairly consistently recorded minor changes or even a drop over the last 20+ years.

This was illustrated in my city when some became curious at the wide discrepancy among various weather reporting stations in the Weatherunderground system here. So a reporter went out on an impromptu information gathering mission to find out why there were such broad discrepancies. He found station mounted next to air conditioning compressors, hung near dryer vents, placed in the sun much of the day, placed between buildings in a sheltered area. Needless to say, none of those were giving competent readings. And the same kind of problems exist with those measuring devices used for much scientific analysis of mean temperatures and CO2 levels too.

Of course we should continue to study all aspects of our environment, climate etc. But there simply is still insuficient evidence that AGW is occurring to any significant degree and, even if it is, insufficient evidence that it will be harmful in any way.

I think we need a great deal more certainty than now exists before making global policy, taking away choices and freedoms, and perhaps dooming hundreds of millions of people to more generations of crushing poverty.
Now you are being silly. The Danes already get 20% of their energy from wind power. Are the Danes in poverty? The Israelis are building ONE solar power plant that will supply 5% of their energy needs. Algae farms can produce 10,000 gallons of ethanol per acre and algae LOVE CO2. T. Boone Pickens is building the largest wind farm in the world in the good old USA, and he's a hard core Republican. The solutions are there. All we need is the leadership and the political will to move in that direction.
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  #274 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 10:57 PM
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jreeves, the Oregon Institute for Science and Medicine knows more about the global warming than NOAA?

CO2 is not the only contributor to global warming. The Stanford solar scientists estimate that the sun has contributed about 25%, but the increase in CO2 is continuous and cumulative. It keeps going up every day, every month, every year. At what point does it melt the North Pole? At what point does it cause wildfires? At what point does it melt Antarctica?
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  #275 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 10:59 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
Now you are being silly. The Danes already get 20% of their energy from wind power. Are the Danes in poverty? The Israelis are building ONE solar power plant that will supply 5% of their energy needs. Algae farms can produce 10,000 gallons of ethanol per acre and algae LOVE CO2. T. Boone Pickens is building the largest wind farm in the world in the good old USA, and he's a hard core Republican. The solutions are there. All we need is the leadership and the political will to move in that direction.
I still haven't seen one link between AGW and enviromental changes.....

You cite the wildfires in CA as evidence;
1. CA is only a small part of the planet
2. There is no link between AGW and wildfires, since CO2 increased 30% from 1880 while there was no increase in wildfires until the 1980's
3. CA's population has grown tremendously and 4 out of 5 wildfires are caused by human carelessness
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  #276 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:01 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
jreeves, the Oregon Institute for Science and Medicine knows more about the global warming than NOAA?

CO2 is not the only contributor to global warming. The Stanford solar scientists estimate that the sun has contributed about 25%, but the increase in CO2 is continuous and cumulative. It keeps going up every day, every month, every year. At what point does it melt the North Pole? At what point does it cause wildfires? At what point does it melt Antarctica?
Your article states that the increases in CO2 levels were due to natural processes.
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  #277 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:02 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
Your article states that the increases in CO2 levels were due to natural processes.
Also if there is a flaw in their logic please point it out....
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  #278 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:03 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
I still haven't seen one link between AGW and enviromental changes.....

You cite the wildfires in CA as evidence;
1. CA is only a small part of the planet
2. There is no link between AGW and wildfires, since CO2 increased 30% from 1880 while there was no increase in wildfires until the 1980's
3. CA's population has grown tremendously and 4 out of 5 wildfires are caused by human carelessness
California is experiencing the driest year on record, and the wildfires were started by lightening strikes.

But nevermind, if the melting of the North Pole can't convince you that the earth is warming, nothing will.
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:05 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
Your article states that the increases in CO2 levels were due to natural processes.
Now you are just lying. How sad for you.
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  #280 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:06 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
Your article states that the increases in CO2 levels were due to natural processes.

"Scientific measurements of levels of CO2 contained in cylinders of ice, called ice cores, indicate that the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level was 278 ppm. That level did not vary more than 7 ppm during the 800 years between 1000 and 1800 A.D.

Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from about 315 ppm in 1958 to 378 ppm at the end of 2004, which means human activities have increased the concentration of atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm or 36 percent."
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:13 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
California is experiencing the driest year on record, and the wildfires were started by lightening strikes.

But nevermind, if the melting of the North Pole can't convince you that the earth is warming, nothing will.
Is it your contention, that all of the wildfires in CA were caused by lightning?
http://www.oism.org/pproject/GWReview_OISM600.pdf
As shown in Fig ures 2, 11, and 12, the trends in gla cier short ening
and sea level rise be gan a century before the 60-year 6-fold increase
in hy drocarbon use, and have not changed dur ing that
increase. Hydrocarbon use could not have caused these trends.
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  #282 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:16 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kirk View Post
Now you are just lying. How sad for you.
However, according to David Hofmann, director of the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., the rate of carbon-dioxide increase returned to the long-term average level of about 1.5 ppm per year in 2004, indicating that the temporary fluctuation was probably due to changes in the natural processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
How is that lying again, straight from your article.

BTW....the article title
AFTER TWO LARGE ANNUAL GAINS, RATE OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 INCREASE
RETURNS TO AVERAGE, NOAA REPORTS
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  #283 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2008, 11:16 PM
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:18 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by jreeves View Post
However, according to David Hofmann, director of the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., the rate of carbon-dioxide increase returned to the long-term average level of about 1.5 ppm per year in 2004, indicating that the temporary fluctuation was probably due to changes in the natural processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
How is that lying again, straight from your article.

BTW....the article title
AFTER TWO LARGE ANNUAL GAINS, RATE OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 INCREASE
RETURNS TO AVERAGE, NOAA REPORTS
Like I said, lying. "Temporary fluctuation" is the key phrase. The CO2 increase has been continuous and the NOAA article says it is caused by man. Nice try though, but you are not really serious, you are just playing.
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:20 PM
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Scientific measurements of levels of CO2 contained in cylinders of ice, called ice cores, indicate that the pre-industrial carbon dioxide level was 278 ppm. That level did not vary more than 7 ppm during the 800 years between 1000 and 1800 A.D.

Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from about 315 ppm in 1958 to 378 ppm at the end of 2004, which means human activities have increased the concentration of atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm or 36 percent.
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