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The IPCC: Bogus data on "Climate Sensitivity"!!!

This is a discussion on The IPCC: Bogus data on "Climate Sensitivity"!!! within the Environment forums, part of the US Discussion category; Like Ive been saying for over a decade......cherry picked data is gay. All the shit we've seen from organizations like the IPCC is highly.......HIGHLY speculative. ...


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Old 03-29-2013, 06:33 PM
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The IPCC: Bogus data on "Climate Sensitivity"!!!

Like Ive been saying for over a decade......cherry picked data is gay. All the shit we've seen from organizations like the IPCC is highly.......HIGHLY speculative. Accordingly, the models are based on subjectively analyzed data...........


There’s an excellent piece here in The Economist that discusses climate sensitivity:


Other recent studies, though, paint a different picture. An unpublished report by the Research Council of Norway, a government-funded body, which was compiled by a team led by Terje Berntsen of the University of Oslo, uses a different method from the IPCC’s. It concludes there is a 90% probability that doubling CO₂ emissions will increase temperatures by only 1.2-2.9°C, with the most likely figure being 1.9°C. The top of the study’s range is well below the IPCC’s upper estimates of likely sensitivity.

This study has not been peer-reviewed; it may be unreliable. But its projections are not unique. Work by Julia Hargreaves of the Research Institute for Global Change in Yokohama, which was published in 2012, suggests a 90% chance of the actual change being in the range of 0.5-4.0°C, with a mean of 2.3°C. This is based on the way the climate behaved about 20,000 years ago, at the peak of the last ice age, a period when carbon-dioxide concentrations leapt. Nic Lewis, an independent climate scientist, got an even lower range in a study accepted for publication: 1.0-3.0°C, with a mean of 1.6°C. His calculations reanalysed work cited by the IPCC and took account of more recent temperature data. In all these calculations, the chances of climate sensitivity above 4.5°C become vanishingly small.






So we are suppossed to blow up whole economies based upon "estimates" with huge possible disparities.


How fucking bogus...........and whats more fascinating is that people dont see this......or more likely, DONT WANT TO SEE THIS.



The "climate change" stuff has always been about two things: 1) Redistribution of wealth 2) Destruction of all capitalistic societies.



Climate Change Is Now Less Of a Problem. So We Need To Do Less About Climate Change - Forbes
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Old 03-29-2013, 06:37 PM
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And please with the "peer review" nonsense.

That shit is rigged and has been for centuries.


Peer review or smear review? Reflections on a rigged system. : Historiann : History and sexual politics, 1492 to the present
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Old 04-27-2013, 07:33 PM
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How worms aid the study of climate change...

Antarctic nematodes and climate change
26 April 2013 - Climate change affects not only air temperature and sea levels, but soil as well. And an American scientist is on an award-winning quest to reverse the damage.
Quote:
The frozen desert valleys of Antarctica are among the world's most inhospitable environments. The landscape is so barren that just 30 years ago, experts did not think it could support life. But beneath the surface, microscopic worms called nematodes thrive in a unique ecosystem - and they are helping researchers understand the effects of climate change.

Soil scientist Diana Wall has spent two decades studying Antarctic nematodes, ground-breaking work that this year earned her one of science's top awards - the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement. "Antarctica is pretty fantastic," she says. "I can only equate it to what it must be like on Mars. There's just nothing there. "The first thing I always notice is the silence - unless the wind is blowing. There are no birds. Nothing moves, and you see no green." All life is hidden in the soil, under frozen lakes or in meltwater streams that run just a few weeks a year.


In a battle of the nematodes, Scottnema lindsayae (left), is under threat from Eudorylaimus glacialis

To work in such harsh conditions, the 69-year-old director of Colorado State University's School of Global Environmental Sustainability must pass tough physical tests and train daily to keep fit. "I'm used to it now but I don't take it for granted," she says. "As I tell my students, people die here." But that harshness makes Antarctica the perfect outdoor laboratory for testing theories about the relationship between the earth's climate and the creatures that live in the soil. Nematodes and bacteria capture and store carbon that otherwise contributes to global warming when allowed to overload the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide gas.

A handful of dry soil in most other regions would contain millions of organisms, making the soil difficult to study. But in the Antarctic there is just one - Scottnema lindsayae. The ability to isolate the single organism makes possible the study of the environment's role in its life cycle. "I call it the Rambo," says Dr Wall. "It's not ugly, but it's a really tough-looking nematode." But Rambo is on the ropes. As temperatures rise and more ice melts, another nematode that thrives in wet soil, Eudorylaimus glacialis, is moving in. And as the two species slug it out for Antarctic dominance, Rambo appears to be losing, declining 65% in the last few years. That could prove a problem. Scottnema is a great carbon hoarder, and if its population is waning in Antarctica, Dr Wall theorises a similar calamity may be striking other important nematode species around the globe, potentially contributing to climate change.

More BBC News - Antarctic nematodes and climate change
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Old 04-27-2013, 07:55 PM
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OK. Reality, not models. What are we seeing now from a rise of about 40% CO2 and 250% CH4? An Arctic Ocean free of ice for part of the summer as soon as 2020. Glacier National Park with no glaciers by 2030. All over the world, alpine glaciers are in major retreat.

And then there are the Greenland and Antarctic Ice caps.

An intense Greenland melt season: 2012 in review | Greenland Ice Sheet

Scientists find Antarctic ice is melting faster | Reuters
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Old 04-28-2013, 01:33 AM
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It's great to see that government-funded research is able to reach independent conclusions.

Congratulations to Skooks here on once and hopefully for all ending this silly myth of researchers being part of some massive conspiracy.
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Old 04-28-2013, 08:52 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
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Quote: Originally Posted by Saigon View Post
It's great to see that government-funded research is able to reach independent conclusions.

Congratulations to Skooks here on once and hopefully for all ending this silly myth of researchers being part of some massive conspiracy.
Recommendation: The IPCC should encourage
Review Editors to fully exercise their authority to
ensure that reviewers’ comments are adequately
considered by the authors and that genuine controversies
are adequately reflected in the report.


However, authors
reported high confidence in some statements for
which there is little evidence.
Furthermore, by
making vague statements that were difficult to
refute, authors were able to attach ‘high confidence’
to the statements. The Working Group II Summary
for Policymakers contains many such statements
that are not supported sufficiently
in the literature,
not put into perspective, or not expressed clearly.


So you state it is silly to state there have been many falsehoods within the reports? Read the above. These are from the recommendations from the Climate Change Assessments, Review of the Processes & Procedures of the IPCC.
This report was written after investigation by the committee set up to assess the data due to the leaked e-mails. -
Overview
The InterAcademy Council is requested to conduct an independent review of the IPCC processes and the procedures by which it prepares its assessments of climate change.


InterAcademy Council | Review of the IPCC | An Evaluation of the Procedures and Processes of the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Old 04-28-2013, 08:56 AM
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IPCC redistributing wealth through Climate Policy

Yeah, that's science
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Old 04-28-2013, 08:57 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
OK. Reality, not models. What are we seeing now from a rise of about 40% CO2 and 250% CH4?
And what is happening to temperatures? Even your high priests admit that they don't know nearly as much as they though they knew. Obiously CO2 isn't a control knob. In fact, a study just published in Nature, finds that CO2 is a slave to temperature, not the other way around.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journ...imate1817.html


Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
An Arctic Ocean free of ice for part of the summer as soon as 2020.
That's not reality...that's a prediction based on models that isn't looking good for your side right now.

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
Glacier National Park with no glaciers by 2030.
Again...not reality...predictions based on flawed models.
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Old 04-28-2013, 09:20 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
Quote: Originally Posted by SSDD View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
OK. Reality, not models. What are we seeing now from a rise of about 40% CO2 and 250% CH4?
And what is happening to temperatures? Even your high priests admit that they don't know nearly as much as they though they knew. Obiously CO2 isn't a control knob. In fact, a study just published in Nature, finds that CO2 is a slave to temperature, not the other way around.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journ...imate1817.html


Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
An Arctic Ocean free of ice for part of the summer as soon as 2020.
That's not reality...that's a prediction based on models that isn't looking good for your side right now.

Quote: Originally Posted by Old Rocks View Post
Glacier National Park with no glaciers by 2030.
Again...not reality...predictions based on flawed models.
#1 I know personally of a couple of climate scientists that work with a certain agency for almost 30 years that are very aware of the cherry picking of data stations that has gone on, as well as many being taken off line and state within their research of the data themselves that what the IPCC has stated in the past is very much non-inclusive. They claim this has resulted in manipuation of the models.
#2 Many scientists, within their research and certain findings have stated explicitly that the models need to be adjusted, due to their findings.
#3 Climate models have been less than reliable in other climate related research for years where it is even more important to the public interests. They change those models usually at least once a year, if not more often. And some of those changes have resulted in even less reliability at times. Sometimes it does make them better but still they lack being able to go further than a few days.

So the assumption by many that climate models can accurately predict decades into the future is rather arrogant, if you ask me.

Does anyone realize that much of the funds the US govt. supplies to the IPCC is not even reported by those agencies within our government doing so? Recently that was brought to the forefront and how that reporting had to be improved upon. Also the US is the principal provider of funds for the IPCC.
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Old 04-28-2013, 09:28 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
Possibly due to the expected harsher review of the data is suddenly making them report that there seems to be some cooling or slow down in warming going on?
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Old 04-28-2013, 09:45 AM
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Depotoo -

Do try and focus. This thread has just proven beyond any doubt that there is no global conspiracy of scientists.

We know that each country conducts its own research and draws its own conclusions - as norway has here.
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Old 04-28-2013, 10:02 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
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Quote: Originally Posted by Saigon View Post
Depotoo -

Do try and focus. This thread has just proven beyond any doubt that there is no global conspiracy of scientists.

We know that each country conducts its own research and draws its own conclusions - as norway has here.
Saigon, it is amazing the different assumptions people reading the same things can make.
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Old 04-28-2013, 10:12 AM
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Depotoo -

Undoubtedly so, but this does not explain why we have a thread on which we see countries releasing independent scientific research, and one poster claiming there is no independent scientific research, only a giant conspiracy.
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Old 04-28-2013, 10:48 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
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Quote: Originally Posted by Saigon View Post
Depotoo -

Undoubtedly so, but this does not explain why we have a thread on which we see countries releasing independent scientific research, and one poster claiming there is no independent scientific research, only a giant conspiracy.
And you see no correlation to the FACTS presented that the IPCC has been found to -

Quote:
authors
reported high confidence in some statements for
which there is little evidence.
and
Quote:
Summary
for Policymakers contains many such statements
that are not supported sufficiently in the literature,
not put into perspective, or not expressed clearly
and suddenly publications, after the scandal have now decided to not only print research that backs up the IPCC as it was found to be less than forthcoming?
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Old 04-28-2013, 10:50 AM
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depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve depotoo could run the Federal Reserve
IT's called cause and effect, my dear.
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