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Another IEA expert: "impossible to go much higher"

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Old 01-06-2012, 02:23 AM
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Another IEA expert: "impossible to go much higher"

another death knell to denialists' screed ... perhaps now we can start getting serious toward mitigating the problem rather than denying it even exists.

Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency | Oil Man


Olivier Rech developed petroleum scenarios for the International Energy Agency over a three year period, up until 2009. This French economist now advises large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian assets management firm.

His forecasts for future petroleum production are now much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA. He expects stronger tensions as of 2013, and an inevitable overall decline of oil production "somewhere between 2015 and 2020", in the following exclusive interview.

Le Monde: ... Taking account of all these factors capable of slowing a decline, what conclusion do you draw?

Rech: We will certainly remain below 95 mb/d for the combined totals of conventional and non-conventional oil.

Therefore, you are clearly more alarmist than the IEA and Total, the most pessimistic of petroleum companies. Total evokes the possibility of maintaining production on a plateau of about 95 mb/d until 2030.

Rech: It's true. The production of oil has already been on a plateau since 2005 at around 82 mb/d. [NB: with biofuels and coal-to-liquid, we approximate 88 mb/d for all liquid fuels.] It appears to me impossible to go much higher. Since demand is still on an increasing trajectory (unless, possibly, the economic crisis engulfs the emerging economies), I expect to see the first tensions arising between 2013 and 2015.

And after that?

Rech: Afterwards, in my view, we will have to face a decline of the production of all forms of liquid fuels somewhere between 2015 to 2020. This decline will not necessarily be rapid, however, but it will be a decline, that much seems clear.
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Old 01-06-2012, 02:32 AM
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I'd like to repeat that for anyone following at home, and for the 5-6 members of the "we have plenty" camp fighting so hard to keep the dream alive...

Quote:
"The production of oil has already been on a plateau since 2005 at around 82 mb/d. [NB: with biofuels and coal-to-liquid, we approximate 88 mb/d for all liquid fuels.] It appears to me impossible to go much higher."
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Old 01-06-2012, 02:39 AM
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in b4 "the french are gay" and "iluminati conspiracy" claims
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Old 01-06-2012, 02:55 AM
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Jiggs its past your bed-time. You are delusional again from lack of sleep. Time to crack open that bottle of Ambien & down a couple with a glass of water. Lights-Out.
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Old 01-06-2012, 07:30 AM
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2015 is a mere four years away.
Most E & P companies plan much further ahead than that.
And their plans include budgeting billions of dollars for projects that will reach well into the next decade.

There are numerous frontiers yet to be explored. The ultra-deep Gulf of Mexico hasn't even been scratched yet.

Jiggs you're alarmism borders on the comical.
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Old 01-06-2012, 10:03 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Mr. H. View Post
2015 is a mere four years away.
Most E & P companies plan much further ahead than that.
And their plans include budgeting billions of dollars for projects that will reach well into the next decade.

There are numerous frontiers yet to be explored. The ultra-deep Gulf of Mexico hasn't even been scratched yet.

Jiggs you're alarmism borders on the comical.


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Old 01-06-2012, 01:39 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by KissMy View Post
Jiggs its past your bed-time. You are delusional again from lack of sleep. Time to crack open that bottle of Ambien & down a couple with a glass of water. Lights-Out.
Ah, it's the former top-ranked denialist who passed the baton.

Do better.
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Old 01-06-2012, 01:41 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Mr. H. View Post
2015 is a mere four years away.
Most E & P companies plan much further ahead than that.
And their plans include budgeting billions of dollars for projects that will reach well into the next decade.

There are numerous frontiers yet to be explored. The ultra-deep Gulf of Mexico hasn't even been scratched yet.

Jiggs you're alarmism borders on the comical.
LOL.... Fail, 100 times fail.

Your post is inundated with miss-the-mark assertion and laughable emptiness. There are no frontiers yet to be explored. Certainly not in any capacity enough to make up for dying existing capacity. Stop lying to yourself and making yourself look more and more irrelevant here.
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:04 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
another death knell to denialists' screed ... perhaps now we can start getting serious toward mitigating the problem rather than denying it even exists.

Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency | Oil Man
An oil expert!! Who is an economist!! I gotta hand you credit, pretending that economists are now oil experts! Discovered by a parrot!!

And I must disagree, this guys boss (otherwise known as head economist, and not retired as our local parrot proclaimed some time ago) has already declared that peak oil was in 2006!!!

You aren't suggesting that this economist didn't tell his boss the head economist, that he dared create yet ANOTHER peak scare, are you?

Peak Oil Was In 2006, International Energy Agency Chief Says [Video]
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:07 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Mr. H. View Post
2015 is a mere four years away.
Most E & P companies plan much further ahead than that.
And their plans include budgeting billions of dollars for projects that will reach well into the next decade.

There are numerous frontiers yet to be explored. The ultra-deep Gulf of Mexico hasn't even been scratched yet.

Jiggs you're alarmism borders on the comical.
LOL.... Fail, 100 times fail.

Your post is inundated with miss-the-mark assertion and laughable emptiness. There are no frontiers yet to be explored. Certainly not in any capacity enough to make up for dying existing capacity. Stop lying to yourself and making yourself look more and more irrelevant here.
If you had good reason for such tenor, I'd give it a pass.
But your consistantly prickish attitude got old a long time ago.
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:17 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
I'd like to repeat that for anyone following at home, and for the 5-6 members of the "we have plenty" camp fighting so hard to keep the dream alive...

Quote:
"The production of oil has already been on a plateau since 2005 at around 82 mb/d. [NB: with biofuels and coal-to-liquid, we approximate 88 mb/d for all liquid fuels.] It appears to me impossible to go much higher."
This is amazing!!!! And sounds familiar!!

“Prominent exploration experts have recently predicted that total world production of liquid oil will peak by about the end of this decade—or a few years later if production does not rise much—and will decline thereafter.”

- World Energy Strategies: Facts, Issues, and Options (New York: Friends of the Earth International, 1975), p. 26.

HOLY CRAP!!!! I'll take a prominent exploration expert over an economist any day of the week.....how did your 1980's go Jiggsy, what with how smart those guys were?
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:20 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Mr. H. View Post

Jiggs you're alarmism borders on the comical.
more like Family Psittacidae
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:22 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
There are no frontiers yet to be explored.
Gte back to us when you acquire some decent seismic coverage of the Laptev Sea and big chunks of Africa, oiltard.
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Old 01-09-2012, 01:29 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by RGR View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by JiggsCasey View Post
There are no frontiers yet to be explored.
Gte back to us when you acquire some decent seismic coverage of the Laptev Sea and big chunks of Africa, oiltard.
LOL, yes... "seismic coverage" that the IEA has somehow overlooked, no doubt.

I'm sure the world will be saved by those hidden gems that only now are being revealed.

"big chunks"... gawd do you suck at this.
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Old 01-09-2012, 01:32 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Mr. H. View Post
If you had good reason for such tenor, I'd give it a pass.
But your consistantly prickish attitude got old a long time ago.
Says one of the biggest pricks the forum has to offer... That's rich.

I'm sorry if responding in a language your team seems well accustomed to is a problem for your sensibilities...

There's not a member of team "nothing to see here" who didn't initiate personal vitriol when engaging me on the topic. ...

But I know: it's OK when you guys do it, gotcha. :thumbsup:
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Last edited by JiggsCasey; 01-09-2012 at 01:34 AM.
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