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Keynesian economics 101

This is a discussion on Keynesian economics 101 within the Current Events forums, part of the US Discussion category; (Telegraph) - The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are ...


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Old 07-05-2010, 10:28 AM
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(Telegraph)- The US workforce shrank by 652,000 in June, one of the sharpest contractions ever. The rate of hourly earnings fell 0.1pc. Wages are flirting with deflation.
“The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession,” said Robert Reich, former US labour secretary. “All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing.”
“Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing,” he said.
California is tightening faster than Greece. State workers have seen a 14pc fall in earnings this year due to forced furloughs. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is cutting pay for 200,000 state workers to the minimum wage of $7.25 an hour to cover his $19bn (£15bn) deficit.
Can Illinois be far behind? The state has a deficit of $12bn and is $5bn in arrears to schools, nursing homes, child care centres, and prisons. “It is getting worse every single day,” said state comptroller Daniel Hynes. “We are not paying bills for absolutely essential services. That is obscene.”
Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market altogether over the past two months. That is the only reason why the headline unemployment rate is not exploding to a post-war high.
Let us be honest. The US is still trapped in depression a full 18 months into zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), and fiscal stimulus that has pushed the budget deficit above 10pc of GDP.
The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost.
The average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks. Nothing like this has been seen before in the post-war era. Jeff Weninger, of Harris Private Bank, said this compares with a peak of 21.2 weeks in the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:29 AM
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And in other news..............
Fore!


(CNBC)- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression, Daryl Guppy, CEO at Guppytraders.com, told CNBC Monday.
“Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment,” Guppy said.
The Dow retreated 457.33 points, or 4.5 percent last week, to close at 9,686 Friday. Guppy said a Dow fall below 9,800 confirmed the head and shoulders pattern.
The Shanghai Composite is seeing a very rapid collapse, falling below 2,500, which suggests the major fall in the Dow, he added.
In the European markets, Guppy says Frankfurt’s Dax is witnessing a different pattern to London’s FTSE.
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Last edited by Capitalist; 07-05-2010 at 10:30 AM.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:34 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Greenbeard View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
Lets see, 2,000,000,000 dollars/1500 jobs = 1,333,333 dollars per job. Hahahahaha.................
Quote: Originally Posted by KissMy View Post
His plan to pay 1,250,000.00 per temp solar job is fucking stupid.
Contrary to what appears to be popular belief here, this isn't a direct payment toward labor costs. Instead, they're loan guarantees to construct plants, which I would imagine you realize involves costs beyond just labor costs. From Abengoa:
Washington, DC – President Obama announced today in his weekly video address that DOE has offered a conditional commitment for a $1.45 billion loan guarantee to Abengoa Solar, Inc. The loan will support the construction and start-up of Solana, a 250 net megawatt (MW) concentrating solar power (CSP) plant in Arizona. [...]

DOE’s Title XVII Loan Guarantee Program was created to support the deployment of innovative clean energy technologies pursuant to Section 1703 of Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Title XVII). Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 was amended by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 to create Section 1705, a new program for the deployment of renewable energy and electric power transmission projects. Solana is eligible for a loan guarantee under both sections of Title XVII.
yaddayaddayadda...
So, then what you're inadvertently admitting here is that "stimulus" is just a big slush fund to dole out to favored and "correct" industries, not to really do any of that "creating jobs" thingy we hear about from progressive Fabian boilerplate.

Thanks for clearing up that one.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:36 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
And in other news..............
Fore!


(CNBC)- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression, Daryl Guppy, CEO at Guppytraders.com, told CNBC Monday.
“Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment,” Guppy said.
The Dow retreated 457.33 points, or 4.5 percent last week, to close at 9,686 Friday. Guppy said a Dow fall below 9,800 confirmed the head and shoulders pattern.
The Shanghai Composite is seeing a very rapid collapse, falling below 2,500, which suggests the major fall in the Dow, he added.
In the European markets, Guppy says Frankfurt’s Dax is witnessing a different pattern to London’s FTSE.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:45 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Dude View Post
So, then what you're inadvertently admitting here is that "stimulus" is just a big slush fund to dole out to favored and "correct" industries, not to really do any of that "creating jobs" thingy we hear about from progressive Fabian boilerplate.
Unless you're calling for direct government (i.e. WPA-style) hiring, no.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:49 AM
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No, I'm not....Just pointing out the BS propaganda, that preys on rank economic ignorance, being promulgated by progressive Fabian socialists of your ilk.
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Old 07-05-2010, 10:50 AM
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Actually, the real purpose of the stimulus was to fund $10,000 a piece signs all over the country celebrating the generosity of Obama in spending our tax money.

PJM reported last month that the cost of the signs could be as much as $192 million or more by the time the funded projects are completed.

“We’re gonna make an easy $20 million cut,” Schock said last Wednesday. It cuts to the heart of the Democrats’ message that “there are no easy cuts.”

“They always trot out the children or suggest you’re gonna put people at some kind of disadvantage if you make cuts in government,” he said. “This is a glaring example of abuse of taxpayer trust that they would blow this kind of money on self-promoting propaganda.”

Schock said he was incensed over the cost of the signs and what they imply.

“Signs over $10,000 a piece?” he asked. “This after the president spent all that time promoting the stimulus as job-creating infrastructure investment? Less than eight percent of this bill actually went to infrastructure, and then of that tens of millions of dollars getting wasted on signs.”


Pajamas Media Plenty of Schock, Very Little Awe at Mandatory Obama Signage
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Old 07-06-2010, 02:05 PM
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Owe-bama country:- Hard times for Ill., but not for governor's staff
Quote:
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn has handed out raises — some of more than 20 percent — to his staff while proclaiming a message of "shared sacrifice" and planning spending cuts of $1.4 billion because the state is awash in debt.

The Democrat has given 43 salary increases averaging 11.4 percent to 35 staffers in the past 15 months, according to an Associated Press analysis of records obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.

They include a $24,000-a-year bump for the man promoted to shepherd the state through the fiscal storm. Budget Director David Vaught got a 20 percent raise to $144,000 in October when he moved from senior adviser to Quinn.

Quinn's office said the raises did not prevent him from making deep spending cuts in both the governor's office and his Office of Management and Budget.

But lawmakers, whom Quinn has asked to raise income taxes and borrow billions to meet its obligations for employee pensions reacted with skepticism and anger.

"It's insulting," said Rep. Jack Franks, a Woodstock Democrat who voted "no" on Quinn's proposal to borrow $3.7 billion for the pension payment that the House OK'd but Senate has not.
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Old 07-06-2010, 02:54 PM
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Abengoa solar, keeping in mind their going to build the world's largest solar plant in Az., will employ 1500 for construction, and 100 to maintain it. It will take alot less to maintain a solar 'plant' than 100 after being built.
Projected power output for 70,000 homes.
Alot of money for less in return.
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Old 07-06-2010, 03:24 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by B. Kidd View Post
Abengoa solar, keeping in mind their going to build the world's largest solar plant in Az., will employ 1500 for construction, and 100 to maintain it. It will take alot less to maintain a solar 'plant' than 100 after being built.
Projected power output for 70,000 homes.
Alot of money for less in return.
Here in So. Nevada, Sempra solar built the Eldorado solar plant, the one where Harry Reid has had numerous photo-ops, outside of Boulder City.
Taking into account that this plant only powers 6400 homes, it created 112 construction jobs when built, and employed one (not a typo) full-time staff person to maintain it after being built, as it is remotely monitored.
Maybe the Abengoa plant when built, will employ 12 full-time people to maintain it.
Bottom-line is Someones 'fudging' the numbers somewheres as far as created jobs, permanent or not, and making a helluva alot of money out of these 'boondoggles'.

Last edited by B. Kidd; 07-06-2010 at 03:40 PM. Reason: pfft...
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Old 07-06-2010, 04:55 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Greenbeard View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
Lets see, 2,000,000,000 dollars/1500 jobs = 1,333,333 dollars per job. Hahahahaha.................
Quote: Originally Posted by KissMy View Post
His plan to pay 1,250,000.00 per temp solar job is fucking stupid.
Contrary to what appears to be popular belief here, this isn't a direct payment toward labor costs. Instead, they're loan guarantees to construct plants, which I would imagine you realize involves costs beyond just labor costs. From Abengoa:
Washington, DC – President Obama announced today in his weekly video address that DOE has offered a conditional commitment for a $1.45 billion loan guarantee to Abengoa Solar, Inc. The loan will support the construction and start-up of Solana, a 250 net megawatt (MW) concentrating solar power (CSP) plant in Arizona. [...]

DOE’s Title XVII Loan Guarantee Program was created to support the deployment of innovative clean energy technologies pursuant to Section 1703 of Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Title XVII). Title XVII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 was amended by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 to create Section 1705, a new program for the deployment of renewable energy and electric power transmission projects. Solana is eligible for a loan guarantee under both sections of Title XVII.

Santiago Seage, CEO of Abengoa Solar, said that “this conditional guarantee could allow us to start construction of Solana this year. I want to recognize the leadership and effort of the DOE in making Solana possible through this guarantee.” Mr. Seage also added that Solana is in a very advanced stage of development and permitting, having received most of its authorizations from local, county, and state authorities. Recently, DOE conducted an Environmental Assessment study and issued a finding of no significant impact (FONSI) for the project. “What the project needs now is for Maricopa County and the state to continue their support and work expeditiously on the last remaining permits needed for construction to begin,” said Abengoa Solar’s Seage.

The construction and operation of Solana will bring many economic and environmental benefits to Arizona and will support the nation’s goals for energy independence through a “green” economy. The plant will create significant tax income for local communities and the state over the life of the project. Abengoa Solar’s Arizona Vice President Kate Maracas stated that “the building of Solana will also create between 1,600-1,700 new construction jobs, and operation of the plant will add another 85 permanent jobs. These construction and operating jobs will create a few thousand additional indirect jobs. Taken together, 98% of the jobs created by Solana will be American jobs - primarily from Arizona, and a smaller portion from neighboring states.”

Abengoa Solar signed a power purchase agreement with APS, the state’s largest electric utility, to sell the energy produced by Solana for a period of 30 years. “APS has demonstrated a strong commitment to solar energy and has shown leadership in moving solar energy toward the mainstream,” said Maracas.
But what they're claiming is way more fun and outlandish. Then Dude will come back in with his "no income taxes would be necessary if the government was only the size it was ten years ago" load of rubbish.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:33 PM
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This will stimulate?

CNS News reported:
According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the federal government helped pay the home air conditioning bills for more than 11,000 dead people, 1,100 federal employees, and 725 convicts in fiscal year 2009.
The payments were made by a $5 billion program known as the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). LIHEAP is designed to provide federal assistance, administered by the states, to help people pay the energy bills to heat their homes in the winter and cool them in the summer. The funds are disbursed by the Department of Health and Human Services and are distributed based on a formula that takes into account a state’s weather and the size of its low-income population.
The GAO examined the LIHEAP programs in seven states: Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, New York, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey. The agency found evidence of fraud in each state.
“Our analysis of LIHEAP data revealed that the program is at risk of fraud and providing improper benefits in all seven of our selected states,” reported the GAO. “About 260,000 applications–9 percent of households receiving benefits in the selected states–contained invalid identity information, such as Social Security numbers, names, or dates of birth.”
Most glaring among the problems the GAO found were the pervasive payment of LIHEAP benefits to dead people, some of whom, records show, had been dead for quite a long time.
“The identities of over 11,000 deceased individuals were used as applicants or household members for LIHEAP benefits,” reads the GAO report. “Our analysis matching LIHEAP data to the SSA’s death master file found these individuals were deceased before the LIHEAP application date.” (SSA is the acronym for the Social Security Administration.)
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:07 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
This will stimulate?
LIHEAP wasn't part of the stimulus package.
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:07 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Greenbeard View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
This will stimulate?
LIHEAP wasn't part of the stimulus package.

So it is just more deficit spending not even intended to stimulate.

Nice
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:47 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Charles_Main View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Greenbeard View Post
Quote: Originally Posted by Capitalist View Post
This will stimulate?
LIHEAP wasn't part of the stimulus package.

So it is just more deficit spending not even intended to stimulate.

Nice

Bottom line, 'green-stimulus', as it now stands, is only intended to stimulate the privileged.
Why else was Al Gore, part founder of a bank that turns out-of-thin-air-carbon-tax-credits, into real live dollars.
It's a 'Royal Scam'. (Also happens to be one of my favorite Steely Dan albums).
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